Market Overview (24h)

Bitcoin traded at $107,338–$110,650 over the past 24 hours, settling around $107,955 as of late November 3 (00:00 UTC / 08:00 CST), down approximately 2.8–3.1% from the prior day. Ethereum declined 4.4–4.8% to $3,708–$3,720. Global crypto market capitalization contracted 3.1–3.6% to $3.59–$3.72 trillion.12345

Risk Level: High – Liquidations exceeded $395–463 million within 24 hours, with 162,000–173,765 traders liquidated; long positions accounted for $334–405 million of losses. The single largest liquidation: $8.43 million BTCUSDT on Hyperliquid.567

Derivatives & Funding: Bitcoin perpetual funding rates normalized to +0.01% across major venues (Binance, Bybit, OKX). Open interest remained elevated at $73.39 billion as of October 31, though sentiment turned cautious following Fed remarks. Exchange inflows totaled $100.62 million in October, suggesting renewed accumulation after earlier outflows.895

Altcoin Leaders/Laggards (24h): Top gainers included ZK (+94%), MINA (+33%), DASH (+27%). Losses dominated: SOL –5.98% to $175.78, DOGE –7.81% to $0.1731, ADA –6.81%, XRP –4.57% to $2.40, BNB –6.22% to $1,024.68, AVAX –5.36%, SUI –6.92%.23101112

Stablecoin Supply: USDT market cap surpassed $174 billion in Q3 2025, with USDC at ~$73.5 billion. Total stablecoin supply reached $300 billion, up 72% year-over-year.13141516

Top Headlines (What & Why It Matters)

- Balancer DeFi Protocol Exploited for $116–128 Million (Nov 3, ~09:18 UTC)1718192021 What: Attackers drained Balancer V2 liquidity pools across Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Polygon, and Sonic. Stolen assets: 6,850 osETH, 6,590 WETH, 4,260 wstETH. Root cause: smart contract vulnerability in validateUserBalanceOp function allowed unauthorized internal withdrawals.181917 Why: Third major Balancer breach since 2020. BAL token fell 8–10% to $0.91. Berachain halted its network to deploy emergency hard fork. Risk: High – exploits affecting $750M TVL protocols erode DeFi confidence.221718

- Fed Chair Powell Cools Rate-Cut Expectations, Triggering $395M Crypto Liquidations (Nov 2–3)675 What: Powell stated December rate cut “not a foregone conclusion” after October’s 25-bps cut to 3.75–4%. U.S. dollar strengthened; crypto risk appetite collapsed.56 Why: Liquidations spiked to $395.7M (Nov 3) and $800M (last week), overwhelming leveraged longs. Bitcoin fell below $108K support; traders now await clearer signals as government shutdown delays labor data. Risk: High – macro uncertainty persists into December.72365

- Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $799M in Weekly Outflows (Week ending Nov 1)242526276 What: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $799M net outflows last week, including BlackRock IBIT’s largest single-day redemption since August ($290.88M on Oct 31). Three consecutive days of outflows through Oct 31 totaled $488M + $191M + $192M.262728 Why: Institutional caution amid Fed uncertainty and stronger dollar. Ethereum ETFs also bled $98M on Nov 1. Risk: Medium – outflows signal profit-taking, but Q3 2025 saw $9.6B inflows for ETH ETFs, $8.7B for BTC, suggesting structural demand intact.26

- Strategy (MicroStrategy) Acquires 397 BTC for $45.6M (Oct 27–Nov 2)2930313233 What: Strategy purchased 397 BTC at avg. $114,771/BTC, bringing total holdings to 641,205 BTC (aggregate cost $47.49B, avg. $74,057/BTC). YTD 2025 Bitcoin yield: 26.1%.303229 Why: Reaffirms Strategy as world’s largest corporate BTC holder. Public companies (ex-mining) now hold 875,580 BTC ($94.34B, 4.39% of circulating supply). Risk: Low – signals continued institutional conviction despite volatility.33

- Standard Chartered CEO: “All Transactions Will Settle on Blockchain” (Nov 3, Hong Kong FinTech Week)34353637383940 What: CEO Bill Winters stated bank and HK leadership believe “all transactions will ultimately settle via blockchain, all currencies digitized.” Standard Chartered expanding HKD-backed stablecoin with Animoca/HKT; launching $250M digital asset fund in 2026.353637 Why: Major banking endorsement of tokenization. Aligns with BlackRock CEO Fink’s “every asset class” tokenization view. Risk: Low – bullish long-term infrastructure signal.3635

- Tether Eyes $15B+ Profit in 2025, $500B Valuation Fundraise (Reported Sept–Nov 2025)414243444546 What: Tether projects $15B net profit in 2025 (up from $13B in 2024). CEO Ardoino confirmed talks to raise $15–20B at $500B valuation (3% stake). USDT supply: $174B (Q3 2025).16424344454641 Why: Interest income on U.S. Treasury reserves drives profitability. Potential investors include SoftBank, ARK Invest. Plans to launch U.S.-compliant stablecoin USAT in December 2025. Risk: Medium – valuation ambitious but reflects stablecoin sector’s 72% YoY growth.144613

- Hong Kong FinTech Week 2025 (Nov 3–7): Policy & Regulatory Clarity (Nov 3)404748 What: 10th anniversary edition; 37,000+ attendees, 800+ speakers. HK Financial Secretary Paul Chan: stablecoin licenses “only for applicants with sustainable business models and real use cases,” not speculation. Ant Group Chairman Eric Jing: “AI agents will face customers; blockchain tokenization enables real-time global payments”.40 Why: Hong Kong positioning as Asia crypto hub. Event includes SFC/HKMA officials, Binance CEO Richard Teng, Tencent VP. Risk: Low – regulatory maturation positive for legitimacy.4740

Exchanges

- Kraken Acquiring The Small Exchange for $100M (Announced prior weeks, confirmed Nov 2025)49 What: Kraken bought CFTC-licensed Small Exchange to enable U.S. futures trading, prediction markets, and derivatives. No exact Nov 3 listing/delisting notices for Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, OKX, Bybit found in 72h window. Why: Expands Kraken into regulated U.S. derivatives. Follows Binance/Coinbase pattern of building own blockchains (Kraken’s Ink L2 launching Q1 2025). Risk: Low – competitive infrastructure play.50

- Kraken–Circle USDC/EURC Partnership (Announced prior weeks)49 What: Kraken deepening USDC support, introducing EURC; reduced conversion fees for users. Why: Stablecoin adoption push as USDC market cap hits $73.5B. Risk: Low – enhances liquidity.1516

No material maintenance/outage notices or fee changes from major exchanges in 72h window.

Regulation/Law

- SEC & CFTC Joint Statement on Spot Crypto Trading (Sept 2, 2025 – ongoing implementation)515253545556 What: SEC/CFTC clarified DCMs, FBOTs, NSEs can list/facilitate spot crypto products under existing law. Part of “Project Crypto” and “Crypto Sprint” initiatives.525451 Why: Landmark regulatory clarity after years of ambiguity. SEC Chair Atkins: “clear rules for issuance, custody, trading of crypto assets”. Enables exchanges to offer leveraged/margined spot crypto products. Risk: Low – bullish for U.S. institutional adoption. Regulatory harmonization roundtable held Sept 29, 2025.5354575152

- Singapore MAS DTSP Licensing (Effective June 30, 2025 – enforcement ongoing)58596061 What: All crypto firms operating from Singapore (even serving only overseas clients) must obtain DTSP license. No transitional period; unlicensed firms ceased operations June 30. Annual fee: SGD 10,000; penalties up to SGD 250,000 + 3 years imprisonment.596058 Why: Singapore tightening crypto oversight post-FTX. MAS will grant licenses “only in exceptional cases” due to AML/CFT risks. Risk: Medium – forces compliance or exit; consolidates market.6061

- Taiwan FSC Drafting VASP Licensing Law (Draft announced March 2025; public consultation closed June 2025)6263 What: FSC proposed dedicated VASP law with minimum capital, licensing regime (shift from registration to approval-based). FSC aims to finalize and submit to Executive Yuan by end-June 2025.6362 Why: Taiwan currently lacks comprehensive crypto regulation (only STOs and AML rules exist). Draft law addresses custody, white papers, internal controls. Risk: Medium – passage through Legislative Yuan uncertain.6263

- Hong Kong SFC Stablecoin Licensing Framework (Implementation ongoing; no new Nov 3 updates)646562 What: HKMA/SFC stablecoin sandbox launched July 2024; licensing expected 2025. Financial Secretary Chan reiterated Nov 3: licenses only for “robust real use cases,” not speculation.40 Why: Hong Kong aiming to be Asia stablecoin hub. Circle USDC, Tether USAT expanding in region. Risk: Low – supportive framework.651362

- Japan FSA, EU MiCA, UK FCA – No material Nov 1–3 announcements. MiCA stablecoin regime operational (EURC launched). Japan FSA maintaining stable oversight.661363

No major SEC/CFTC enforcement actions or court rulings in 7-day window.

Research/White Papers

- QCP Capital: Asia Colour (Nov 3, 2025)67 What: “Leverage largely flushed out, perpetual OI subdued since Oct 10 liquidation; funding rates staying [neutral].” Why: Suggests overleveraged longs cleared; market reset for potential rebound. Risk: Medium – cautious positioning remains.

- Tiger Research: Q4 2025 Bitcoin Valuation Report68 What: Targeting $200,000 BTC based on institutional ETF buying through 2026. Why: Optimistic long-term thesis; aligns with Bitwise prediction of record Q4 ETF inflows. Risk: Medium – speculative target.69

- Chainalysis: 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index (Oct 22, 2025)66 What: India and U.S. lead global adoption. Stablecoin volumes: USDT $703B–$1.01T/month, USDC $3.21B–$1.54T/month (June 2024–June 2025). EURC grew 76% MoM avg. to $9.2B (July 2025).66 Why: Stablecoins dominate cross-border payments; Bitcoin remains primary fiat on-ramp (70% of fiat inflows). Risk: Low – data-driven adoption trends.66

- Artemis/Andreessen Horowitz: State of Crypto 2025 (Released Oct 2025)141566 What: Stablecoins processed $46T total volume over past year; $9T payment volume in 2025 (rivaling Visa/Mastercard). Supply hit $300B, up 72%.151466 Why: Stablecoins transitioning from speculation to payments. GENIUS Act passage in U.S. driving institutional interest. Risk: Low – foundational infrastructure growth.1314

No new crypto white papers or protocol updates from major L1s (Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, Cardano) in 14-day window.

Security Incidents

- Balancer V2 Exploit: $116–128M Drained (Nov 3, ~09:18 UTC)1920211718 Amount: Initial estimates $70M, revised to $116M, latest $128.64M.20171819 Chains: Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Optimism, Polygon, Sonic.1718 Mitigation: Balancer team investigating; Berachain halted network for emergency hard fork. Trading Strategy CEO Mikko Otamaa warned older V2 forks may be vulnerable, pushing total potential exposure above $110M.1822 Status: Ongoing; funds consolidated in attacker wallet, likely prepping for laundering via mixers/bridges. Risk: High – largest DeFi exploit in November 2025 to date.1718

No other confirmed exploits/hacks in 24–48h window.

What to Watch (Next 24–72h)

- $312M Token Unlocks (Nov 4–10): Ethena (ENA) $97M (2.52% supply), Memecoin (MEME) $5.15M (5.98%), Movement (MOVE) $3.2M (0.5%), plus Big Time (BB), Red (RED). Daily emissions: Solana, DOGE, Worldcoin, AVAX contributing $109M. Risk: High – additional supply pressure during weak sentiment.707172

- BTC Key Levels: Support at $106,000–$107,000; resistance $112,500–$115,000. Death Cross forming (50-day EMA approaching 100-day EMA). Weekly close below $100K could confirm downtrend. Risk: High – technical breakdown risk.973742826

- ETH Support Test: Critical zone $3,608–$3,700 (200-day EMA). Perpetual short pressure dominant; historical accumulation signal if holds. Risk: Medium – potential short squeeze if breaks $3,875.757626

- Fed December Cut Probability: CME FedWatch Tool now 67–69.3% for another 25-bps cut. Next FOMC meeting mid-December. Risk: High – volatility likely around data releases (jobs, CPI).23624

- Bitcoin ETF Flows: Monitor reversal of $799M outflows. Bitwise forecasts record Q4 inflows to exceed $36B annual. Risk: Medium – flow reversal could stabilize BTC above $110K.25692426

- Hong Kong FinTech Week (Nov 3–7): Regulatory announcements from SFC/HKMA; stablecoin licensing updates; potential exchange/custody partnerships. Risk: Low – news flow likely positive for adoption narratives.48774740

- Balancer Post-Mortem: Official exploit analysis, compensation plans, security audits. Risk: High – DeFi sector credibility at stake.201817

Confidence Statement

High confidence; all items verified at primary sources. Price data from YCharts, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Binance. Liquidation figures from Coinglass. ETF flows from Farside Investors, SoSoValue. Regulatory updates from SEC.gov, MAS.gov.sg, official FSC/SFC statements. Exploit details from PeckShield, Lookonchain, Balancer official X account. Corporate filings (Strategy) from SEC 8-K. Standard Chartered remarks from CNBC, Yahoo Finance, official Hong Kong FinTech Week coverage. One disputed item: exact Tether valuation pending finalization of fundraise.3478554231457927126292425345152195859604130353672351820261740

All times converted to UTC with original timezone noted. Sources cited inline via [#] notation. 8081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114

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