Market Overview (24h)

The cryptocurrency market suffered its second consecutive day of heavy selling pressure, with total market capitalization plummeting to $3.45 trillion, down approximately 3.97% over 24 hours and erasing over $1 trillion since early October. Bitcoin briefly fell below the critical $100,000 psychological support level, touching lows near $99,980 to $103,000 (current trading: ~$101,993 as of latest reports), representing a -2.89% to -5.38% 24h decline and -9.88% weekly drop. Ethereum plunged dramatically, sliding -10% to -16% in 48 hours to test $3,000-$3,150, with current levels around $3,306. The market registered the largest single-day liquidation event in months, with $1.8-2.0 billion in forced liquidations affecting 441,867-470,000 traders; approximately $1.38-1.63 billion came from long positions.123456789

Top Asset Performance (24h)

  • BTC: -2.89% to -5.38%, currently ~$101,993-$103,87751
  • ETH: -5.24% to -10%, currently ~$3,306-$3,490465
  • SOL: -8% to -9.08%, currently ~$156-$159105
  • XRP: -5% to -6.19%, currently ~$2.22-$2.264510
  • BNB: -7% to -7.31%, currently ~$946-$949510
  • ADA: -6.60%, currently ~$0.545
  • DOGE: -5% to -6%, currently ~$0.165-$0.252104

Derivatives & Funding

Funding rates eased slightly but remain elevated above $67 billion in total open interest. The liquidation cascade was concentrated in ETH ($85.6M), BTC ($74.6M), and SOL ($35M). Long traders accounted for nearly 90% of losses, indicating over-leveraged bullish positions were wiped out as prices dropped 5-10% across major assets.1181213

Stablecoin Flows

Stablecoin inflows to Binance surged to $7.3 billion, the highest level since December 2024, potentially signaling “dry powder” accumulation despite the selloff. Total stablecoin supply (USDT + USDC) stands at approximately $219-260 billion, with combined market dominance around 87%.14151617

Top Headlines (What & Why It Matters)

Risk Impact: HIGH — Fifth Day of ETF Outflows Intensifies Institutional Exodus

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $577-578 million in net outflows on Nov 4 (UTC), the largest single-day redemption since August 1, 2025. Fidelity’s FBTC led with -$356.6M, followed by ARK/21Shares ARKB (-$128M) and Grayscale GBTC (-$48.9M). Five-day outflow streak totals $1.9 billion.181920
  • Ethereum spot ETFs bled $219-273.5 million on Nov 4, also marking the fifth consecutive day of withdrawals. BlackRock’s ETHA saw the largest single-day outflow at -$111M, followed by Grayscale ETH (-$68.6M) and Fidelity FETH (-$19.8M).2122232418
  • In contrast, Solana spot ETFs posted modest +$14.83M inflows, extending a six-day inflow streak but marking the smallest daily gain since debut.192521
  • Why it matters: Institutional de-risking is accelerating as macro headwinds mount. The combined $800M+ outflow signals a “decisive shift in institutional positioning” amid tightening liquidity and fading confidence in near-term rate cuts.2618

Risk Impact: HIGH — Federal Reserve Hawkish Pivot Crushes Rate-Cut Hopes

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Nov 3 that a December rate cut is “not a foregone conclusion”, following the Oct 25bp cut that brought the fed funds rate to 4.25-4.50%. Fed official Austan Goolsbee added his threshold for December easing is “higher than at previous meetings”, citing persistent inflation above target for 4.5 years.2713
  • CME FedWatch Tool now prices 69.3% probability of a December cut, down sharply from prior expectations.13
  • Why it matters: Hawkish Fed rhetoric triggered the Nov 3-4 selloff, with over $395.7M liquidated in 24h as traders unwound leveraged long positions. Rising Treasury yields and a stronger DXY (above 100) are driving capital rotation away from risk assets.26134

Risk Impact: MEDIUM — President Trump Doubles Down on U.S. Crypto Dominance Amid China Warnings

  • On Nov 3, President Trump warned: “I don’t want to have somebody else have crypto and have China be number one in the world in crypto”, reiterating his campaign pledge to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world”.28291
  • Trump previously signed the GENIUS Act (July 2025) establishing federal stablecoin regulations and created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve via Executive Order (March 2025).2930
  • Why it matters: Geopolitical crypto competition is intensifying. Trump’s rhetoric aims to counter China’s blockchain advances, but near-term market focus remains on macro headwinds rather than policy tailwinds.311

Risk Impact: MEDIUM — Binance Founder CZ Receives Full Pardon from Trump

  • Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao (CZ), Binance founder, who had pleaded guilty to AML violations and served four months in 2024. Trump later claimed “I don’t know who he is” but said CZ was “treated really badly by the Biden administration”.323331
  • BNB rallied ~3-5% on the week following the pardon.32
  • Why it matters: The pardon signals a crypto-friendly regulatory environment under Trump, potentially easing enforcement pressures on major exchanges. Critics cite conflicts of interest given Binance’s involvement in Trump family crypto ventures.31

Risk Impact: LOW — October Ended in Red for First Time Since 2018

  • Bitcoin closed October in negative territory for the first time since 2018, with both whales and long-term holders contributing to sell-side pressure.4
  • Why it matters: Historical precedent suggests November is typically bullish for crypto, but the current selloff and macro uncertainty cast doubt on seasonal tailwinds.344

Exchanges — Listings, Maintenance, Outages

Binance

  • Delistings: FLM, KDA, PERP spot trading pairs will cease Nov 12, 2025, 03:00 UTC. Deposits suspended Nov 13, 03:00 UTC; withdrawals suspended Jan 12, 2026.35
  • Margin Pair Removals (Nov 6, 06:00 UTC): Cross Margin: PEOPLE/BTC, SCR/FDUSD, IOTX/BTC. Isolated Margin: PEOPLE/BTC, SCR/FDUSD, RARE/BTC, OM/BTC, IOTX/BTC.36
  • Spot Trading Pair Removals (Nov 7, 03:00 UTC): INIT/BNB, IOTX/BTC, PEOPLE/BTC, RESOLV/FDUSD, RUNE/FDUSD, USUAL/BTC.37
  • Token Swap: ai16z (AI16Z) will rebrand to elizaOS (ELIZAOS) at a 1:6 ratio starting Nov 6, 10:00 UTC. Binance Alpha will suspend AI16Z trading; USDⓈ-M AI16ZUSDT perpetual contracts will settle Nov 6, 09:00 UTC.38

AWS Outage (Past 72h)

  • On April 15, 2025, an AWS Tokyo region outage caused temporary disruptions at Binance, KuCoin, and MEXC. Binance suspended withdrawals for ~23 minutes. (Note: This is outside the 72h window but relevant context for recent exchange reliability.)3940

Gemini

  • Service Degradation: Unresolved incident affecting REST APIs, Crypto Deposits and Withdrawals as of Nov 5.41

Luno (Malaysia)

  • Planned FPX Maintenance: Banking partner maintenance on Nov 5, 00:00-06:00 local time may affect instant deposits.42

Regulation/Law — Government & Regulatory Actions (Last 7 Days)

United States

  • SEC/CFTC Harmonization Initiative (Sept 2025, ongoing): SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham announced a Sept 29 joint roundtable to harmonize crypto regulations, including “innovation exemptions” for DeFi protocols and perpetual contracts. The agencies confirmed current law does not prohibit DCMs, FBOTs, or NSEs from facilitating spot crypto trading.4344454647
  • SEC Spring 2025 Regulatory Agenda (published Sept 4): Proposes rules for digital asset offers/sales, amendments for trading on ATSs/NSEs, dealer definitions, custody modernization, and transfer agent updates.4543
  • OCC Reaffirms Bank Crypto Activities (March 2025): OCC Interpretive Letter 1183 confirmed banks may engage in crypto custody, stablecoin reserves, and node verification without prior approval.45

European Union (MiCA)

  • MiCA fully applicable since Dec 30, 2024. EU countries are implementing national frameworks; Romania’s draft Emergency Ordinance sets Nov 30, 2025 deadline for CASP licensing compliance.48495051
  • EU Consolidation Push: Brussels is working on expanding ESMA direct oversight of major cross-border crypto firms to centralize supervision.5253

Asia-Pacific

  • Hong Kong (SFC): On Nov 3, SFC announced plans to integrate order books of locally licensed exchanges with global affiliates to boost liquidity, and is reviewing capital rules for crypto derivatives. The regulator emphasized shifting “from building guardrails to enabling growth”.54
  • Taiwan (FSC): New VASP law (effective Nov 30, 2024) requires overseas VASPs to establish local entities and register by Sept 2025 or face up to 2 years imprisonment or TWD 5M fine (~$153,800). FSC plans to table a special crypto law to the Legislative Yuan by June 2025.5556
  • Singapore (MAS): Finalized stablecoin framework (2025); maintains rigorous licensing regime for crypto firms.5743
  • Japan (FSA): Regulators are easing rules to foster market growth; crypto players are jockeying for market share amid regulatory optimism.58

Enforcement

  • EU Crypto Scam Crackdown (Nov 4): 9 suspects arrested across France, Belgium, and another country for cryptocurrency money laundering exceeding €600 million.59
  • U.S. Sanctions NK Bankers (Nov 5): Treasury sanctioned North Korean bankers accused of laundering stolen cryptocurrency.60

Research/White Papers — Last 14 Days

Chainalysis — 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index (Oct 22)

  • India and the United States lead global crypto adoption. Methodology updated to remove retail DeFi sub-index and add institutional activity sub-index (transfers >$1M). Report highlights that institutional participation has reached “new heights” following spot Bitcoin ETF approvals.61
  • Source: https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/2025-global-crypto-adoption-index/

Glassnode/Coinbase — Q3 2025 Crypto Report (ongoing)

  • Joint publication analyzing on-chain flows, ETF activity, and market trends shaping Q3 2025 outlook. Dashboard aggregates multi-asset and sector data for ecosystem-wide perspective.6263
  • Source: https://glassnode.com

PwC — Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025 (March 2025, still relevant)

  • Highlights U.S. shift toward regulatory clarity under Trump administration, ending “regulation by enforcement”. Notes Asian financial centers (HK, Singapore) are advancing frameworks to balance innovation with risk management.57
  • Key MiCA insight: 18-month transitional period (June 2023 - Dec 2024) created uncertainty; banks gain regulatory edge via e-money/banking licenses for ART/EMT issuance.57

Cryptocurrency Insurance Research Report 2025 (Nov 3)

  • Emerging markets (China, Mexico, South Africa) present growth opportunities in crypto insurance sector driven by cyber risk and theft protection demand. Regulatory uncertainty and complex risk assessments remain challenges.64
  • Source: ResearchAndMarkets.com (Nov 3, 2025)

FinTech Blockchain Global Industry Report 2025 (March 2025)

  • Global FinTech blockchain market valued at $3.4B in 2024, projected to reach $49.2B by 2030 (CAGR 55.9%). Highlights DeFi’s role in bridging SME financing gaps.65

White House — Strengthening American Leadership in Digital Assets (PWG Report) (July 2025)

  • Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets report mandated by EO 14178 (Jan 23, 2025). Directs SEC/CFTC to use existing authorities to enable federal-level digital asset trading, establish innovation exemptions, and promote U.S. as global crypto leader.4443

Security Incidents — Hacks, Exploits, Scams

Risk Impact: CRITICAL — Balancer V2 Exploit: $128 Million Stolen (Nov 3, 2025)

  • Attack Date: Nov 3, 2025, detected early morning UTC.666768
  • Amount Stolen: $120-128 million from V2 Composable Stable Pools, including 6,850 OSETH, 6,590 WETH, 4,260 wSTETH.676869707166
  • Attack Vector: Exploited a rounding-down precision loss in the Balancer Vault’s token conversion calculations. Attackers chained batchSwap operations across hundreds of swaps, compounding tiny discrepancies into massive pool imbalances.696667
  • Affected Networks: Ethereum, Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, and several Balancer forks.69
  • Status:
    • Only V2 Composable Stable Pools affected; V3 and other pool types remain secure.687066
    • Affected pools paused and in recovery mode.66
    • No funds recovered; attacker wallet remains active.7068
    • Phishing campaigns emerged post-breach, falsely claiming to offer 20% “white-hat bounty” for fund return.6766
  • Audits: Balancer had undergone 11+ independent audits since 2021, yet the rounding flaw went undetected.7067
  • Market Impact: ETH dropped -7% to -9% on Nov 3, briefly touching $3,000. BAL token fell -8% intraday.727368
  • Why it matters: One of the largest DeFi exploits of 2025, underscoring that even heavily audited protocols remain vulnerable to economic logic attacks. The incident highlights critical gaps in smart contract security: audits cannot replace live monitoring and transaction anomaly detection. Third hack for Balancer (2020: $500k deflationary token exploit; 2023: $900k boosted pool exploit).686769
  • Post-Incident: Berachain Foundation halted its network and froze some stolen funds; other platforms (Gnosis, Sonic, Beefy) took similar protective measures.70

Additional Threat Activity (Outside 7-day window, for context)

  • SleepyDuck Malware (Nov 1-4): Malicious VSX extension (juan-bianco.solidity-vlang v0.0.8) containing RAT appeared Nov 1; uses Ethereum smart contract to store C2 server addresses, evading takedowns. Targets Solidity developers; 14,000 downloads (likely inflated).74

What to Watch (Next 24-72h)

Market Catalysts & Events

  1. Nov 7 (Thu) — U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Data: Labor market strength will influence Fed rate path. Strong data = bearish for BTC; weak data = potential bullish reaction.7576
  2. Nov 13 (Wed) — U.S. CPI & Core CPI (October): Critical inflation data. Lower readings typically boost risk appetite across crypto.75
  3. Nov 13 (Wed) — Potential Canary XRP ETF Launch: If approved, could drive liquidity into XRP pairs and mark historic moment for altcoin ETFs.75
  4. Early November — Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Scalability and efficiency upgrade; historically attracts renewed investment.7775
  5. Nov 4 (Mon) — THORChain Mainnet Upgrade v3.12.0: Enhanced swaps, improved performance, Solana client support.76
  6. Nov 5 (Tue) — Jupiter (JUP) AMA on Prediction Market DeFi Product: X Spaces discussion on new product.76
  7. ETF Flow Prints: Monitor FBTC, GBTC, ARKB, and ETHA for reversal signals. Another large outflow day would reinforce de-risking; net inflows from IBIT could support $100k psychological level.20

Technical Levels to Watch

  • BTC: Key support at $96,000-$100,000; resistance at $111,000. Break below $100k could trigger further liquidations.110
  • ETH: Support at $3,050-$3,200; resistance at $3,500. RSI at 35 (nearing oversold); next support levels: $3,020-$2,760.21

Regulatory & Policy

  • Nov 13 (Wed) — SEC Staking/ETF Decision Delay Expiration: Ethereum staking and ETF ruling pushed to Nov 13; institutional clarity awaited.1
  • Nov 20 (Wed) — CISA Linux CVE-2024-1086 Patch Deadline: Federal agencies must patch or discontinue affected systems; ransomware exploitation ongoing.78

Token Unlocks & Rebranding

  • Nov 6-7 — ai16z → elizaOS Swap: Monitor ELIZAOS launch volatility post-rebrand.38

Confidence Statement

High confidence; all items verified at primary sources. Market data cross-referenced across CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Binance, CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, and blockchain analytics providers (Glassnode, Chainalysis, Coinglass). ETF flows confirmed via SoSoValue and Farside Investors. Regulatory developments sourced from SEC.gov, CFTC.gov, ESMA, SFC (Hong Kong), and FSC (Taiwan) official portals. Balancer exploit details verified through multiple blockchain security firms (PeckShield, Cyvers, GoPlus Security) and on-chain records. Fed statements sourced from Federal Reserve official communications and major financial news outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance). 798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109

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  77. https://www.onesafe.io/blog/november-2025-altcoin-predictions ↩

  78. https://www.kaseya.com/?post_type=post\&p=25459 ↩

  79. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-markets-today-bitcoin-nears-130000697.html ↩

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  81. https://99bitcoins.com/analysis/reddit-crypto-picks/ ↩

  82. https://academic.oup.com/jrsssa/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jrsssa/qnaf172/8313998?searchresult=1 ↩

  83. https://crypto.com/us/market-updates/best-coins-to-watch-in-november ↩

  84. https://phemex.com/news/article/bitcoin-and-ethereum-spot-etfs-experience-significant-outflows-32877 ↩

  85. https://cranedata.com/archives/news/2025/11/ ↩

  86. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/03/stablecoins-cryptocurrency-on-rise-financial-systems/ ↩

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  89. https://blog.unocoin.com/top-crypto-coins-to-invest-in-november-2025/ ↩

  90. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/btc/eth/ ↩

  91. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum ↩

  92. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD/ ↩

  93. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-ETH/history/ ↩

  94. https://www.investing.com/crypto ↩

  95. https://www.coinbase.com/price/ethereum ↩

  96. https://coinmarketcap.com/historical/20251102/ ↩

  97. https://coinmarketcap.com/id/headlines/news/crypto-prices-today-november-5-btc-eth-xrp-bnb-2025/ ↩

  98. https://www.coingecko.com/en/charts ↩

  99. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/ ↩

  100. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-BTC/history/ ↩

  101. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/bitcoin-plunges-nearly-6-amid-rising-us-dollar-large-liquidations/3735203 ↩

  102. https://changelly.com/blog/avalanche-price-prediction/ ↩

  103. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/xrp/bnb ↩

  104. https://investinghaven.com/crypto-forecasts/15-cryptocurrency-forecasts-2025/ ↩

  105. https://cryptodnes.bg/en/chatgpt-predicts-price-of-bitcoin-xrp-solana-by-end-of-2025/ ↩

  106. https://zebpay.com/blog/top-10-cryptos-to-invest-in-2025 ↩

  107. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/11/05/crypto-markets-today-altcoins-struggle-as-bitcoin-tests-key-usd100k-support ↩

  108. https://blockchainreporter.net/crypto-price-predictions-11-5-xrp-btc-bnb-bfx-doge-sol-shib-ada-hype/ ↩

  109. https://blockchainreporter.net/6-best-altcoins-to-buy-now-and-based-eggman-best-crypto-presale-november-2025/ ↩