Daily Crypto Market Brief - BTC Near $100K: Whale Dump, ETF Outflows, DeFi Woes
Market Overview (24h)
Spot Markets
Bitcoin closed November 9 at $102,290, down 1.07% from the prior day ($103,396) and down approximately 8% week-over-week from November 2’s $110,014. Ethereum traded at $3,404, down 1.13% in 24 hours and down 11.79% from the prior week’s $3,859. The global crypto market cap stood at $3.42 trillion as of November 9, down 0.99% over 24 hours.1234
Major altcoins on November 9 (UTC):
- BNB: $993.79, -0.65%4
- XRP: $2.2827, -1.75%4
- SOL: $159.10, -1.78%4
- DOGE: $0.1745, -3.73%4
- ADA: $0.62 (approximate, prior reporting)5
Risk label: Medium. BTC tested psychological $100K support multiple times this week; breach below could trigger cascade toward $94K–$98K range.6
Derivatives & Funding
Open interest in BTC futures remains elevated but declined 4–9% across venues following November 3–4 cascade liquidations. Perpetual funding rates have trended slightly positive but remain near neutral, indicating reduced bullish leverage after October’s deleveraging event. Over $1.36 billion in long and short positions were liquidated between November 3–4, with BTC accounting for $377 million and ETH $316.6 million. A single $47.87 million BTC-USDT long on HTX was the largest liquidation.789
Stablecoin Supply
USDT market cap: ~$146 billion (64% share). USDC: ~$56–62 billion (24.5% share). Combined 88.5% market dominance. USDC supply surged 129% year-over-year, reflecting institutional confidence and compliance focus. Stablecoin transaction volume for 2025 has reached $4 trillion year-to-date (through August), up 83% from 2024.10111213
Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)
1. Satoshi-Era Whale Owen Gunden Offloads $1.12 Billion in BTC
What: Early Bitcoin miner Owen Gunden moved his entire 11,000 BTC holdings (valued at $1.12 billion) to Kraken exchange over November 8–9, 2025. On November 9 at approximately 00:48 UTC, he transferred the final 3,549 BTC ($361.84M), with 600 BTC ($61.17M) sent directly to Kraken.14156 Why it matters: Large-scale movements to centralized exchanges typically signal sell intent. Whale sales of this magnitude increase selling pressure and contribute to BTC’s struggle to hold the $100K level. This follows earlier transfers on November 8 of 3,600.55 BTC ($372.14M).1514 Risk label: High — near-term downside volatility likely if liquidation proceeds. Source: Lookonchain (X post, Nov 9), Arkham Intelligence14615
2. Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs Break 6-Day Outflow Streak, Then Resume Bleeding
What: On November 6, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net inflows in a week: $240 million led by BlackRock IBIT ($112.4M), Fidelity FBTC ($61.6M), and ARK ARKB ($60.4M). Ethereum ETFs attracted $12.5 million the same day. However, flows turned negative again, with cumulative Bitcoin ETF outflows totaling ~$2.05 billion from October 29–November 5, and Ethereum ETFs shedding $837.66 million. Weekly data (ending November 7) showed BTC ETF outflows of $1.21 billion and ETH outflows of $508 million.16171819 Why it matters: Heavy institutional redemptions reflect macro uncertainty (Fed hawkishness, rising Treasury yields) and risk-off rotation. ETF flows are now a primary driver of short-term BTC price action. November 4 saw the largest single-day BTC ETF outflow since August: $558 million.20 Risk label: High — continued outflows pressure spot prices. Sources: SoSo Value, Farside Investors, BeInCrypto2122231916
3. DeFi Protocol Balancer Suffers $128 Million Exploit (November 3)
What: Ethereum-based DeFi protocol Balancer was exploited on November 3, 2025, starting at approximately 07:48 UTC, resulting in losses exceeding $128 million across Ethereum, Base, Polygon, and Arbitrum chains. Attackers exploited precision rounding errors and invariant manipulation in Balancer V2 vaults, draining liquidity pools via batch swaps and malicious smart contracts. At least $100 million was drained from Ethereum alone. The exploit also affected 27+ Balancer forks, including Beets Finance (Sonic) and Beethoven (Optimism).24252627 Why it matters: This is Balancer’s third major security breach since 2020 and one of the largest DeFi hacks of 2025. The protocol had undergone extensive audits by OpenZeppelin, Trail of Bits, Certora, and ABKD. The incident contributed to November’s market-wide liquidations and eroded confidence in DeFi security. Balancer’s BAL token fell over 8%. Several blockchains (Berachain, Gnosis, Sonic) froze affected contracts and paused networks for emergency hard forks.25272824 Risk label: High — systemic DeFi trust issues; $2.2B+ in 2025 crypto hack losses to date.27 Sources: BleepingComputer, DLNews, BlockSec, Balancer official statements2628242527
4. Japan’s FSA to Tighten Crypto Lending & IEO Rules (Expected Late 2025)
What: Japan’s Financial Services Agency (FSA) is planning to tighten regulations around cryptocurrency lending and Initial Exchange Offerings (IEOs) by end of 2025. The move will bring crypto lending under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act and close loopholes where entities bypass registration by claiming to “borrow” rather than lend. The FSA will also impose investment limits on IEOs without financial audits and mandate stronger risk/custody controls and asset segregation.293031 Why it matters: Japan is a major crypto hub. Stricter rules will reshape how exchanges and DeFi platforms operate domestically, potentially slowing innovation short-term but enhancing investor protection and market stability. The FSA is also considering allowing banks to invest in and hold BTC under strict risk management frameworks.3031 Risk label: Medium — regulatory tightening may dampen short-term speculation but improve long-term legitimacy. Sources: Wu Blockchain (X), MEXC, OneSafe.io312930
5. CZ Reports Government Officials Calling Crypto “Hard Money”
What: On November 9, 2025, former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) reported via social media that two senior government officials from two different (unnamed) countries referred to cryptocurrency as “the hard money” during advisory discussions in the prior week. CZ characterized this as evidence that “the realization is finally happening” regarding crypto’s economic role.32 Why it matters: Signals shifting government sentiment toward crypto as a legitimate store of value and policy tool. Context: multiple nations are exploring strategic BTC reserves (Kazakhstan announced plans for a $500M–$1B national crypto asset reserve fund in November).33 Risk label: Low — narrative-positive but lacks specific policy commitments. Source: Finance.Yahoo.com quoting CZ on X (Nov 9, 2025)32
6. Moonwell DeFi Hack: $1M Lost via Chainlink Oracle Flaw (November 4)
What: On November 4, 2025, Moonwell DeFi protocol on Base and Optimism L2s lost approximately $1 million after an attacker exploited a Chainlink oracle price feed error. The oracle reported wrstETH (wrapped restaked stETH) at over $5.8 million per token (vs. actual ETH price ~$3,500), allowing the attacker to use 0.02 wrstETH as collateral to borrow and drain 295 ETH across multiple transactions.34 Why it matters: Oracle manipulation remains a critical DeFi vulnerability. This follows Moonwell’s December 2024 $320K flash loan exploit and October 2025 $1.7M Base contract breach. Timing compounds market fear post-Balancer hack.34 Risk label: Medium — raises broader DeFi oracle security concerns. Source: CertiK, Yahoo Finance34
7. XRP Profit-Taking Surges 240% Amid 25% Price Drop
What: On-chain data from Glassnode shows XRP holders’ profit-taking activity surged approximately 240% during the week ending November 8, even as XRP price fell 25% from recent highs to approximately $2.26.14 Why it matters: Simultaneous distribution waves across BTC, XRP, and SHIB indicate broad risk-off positioning heading into mid-November CPI data (Nov 12) and Fed minutes (Nov 14).14 Risk label: Medium — distribution into weakness suggests near-term bearish structure. Source: U.Today quoting Glassnode14
Exchanges
Listings
- Binance Thailand: New trading pairs for Kite (KITE) and Momentum (MMT) with BNB/USDC/USDT pairs, deposits open November 10 at 11:00 UTC+7 (04:00 UTC), spot trading at 14:00 UTC+7 (07:00 UTC).[^35]
- Binance Futures: Janction (JCT) perpetual contract launching November 10 at 10:30 UTC with up to 40x leverage.35
- MEXC: Multiple new token listings scheduled for November 9, 2025, at 14:00 UTC (source: CoinGabbar aggregator).36
- Coinbase roadmap: BNB added to listing roadmap (October announcement), signaling potential future listing of rival Binance’s native token.3738
Delistings
- Binance Futures: COIN-M MANAUSD and EGLDUSD perpetual contracts (Decentraland and MultiversX) to be delisted November 13, 2025, at 09:00 UTC. All positions will be auto-settled; new positions blocked from 08:30 UTC.39
- Mudrex: AI16Z/USDT pair delisted November 9; replaced by ELIZAOS/USDT on November 12 due to token swap/rebranding.40
Operational Updates
- Binance Proof-of-Reserves (Nov 1): BTC reserve ratio 102.11% (606,356 BTC), ETH 100.00% (4.09M), BNB 112.95% (37.88M), USDT 107.45% (34.73B).39
- Bybit Web3 services shutdown: Discontinued NFT marketplace, Cloud Wallet, Keyless Wallet, multi-chain DEX, and Swap & Bridge widget (October 2025 announcement; deadlines for asset transfers extended).41
Risk label: Low for exchange announcements (routine operational changes).
Regulation / Law
United States
SEC & CFTC Harmonization Initiative (September 2025 — Ongoing Impact)
On September 2, 2025, the SEC and CFTC issued a Joint Statement clarifying that registered exchanges are not prohibited from facilitating trading of certain spot crypto commodity products, including leveraged/margined retail commodity transactions on digital assets. SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham announced a September 29 joint roundtable on regulatory harmonization. Both agencies expressed openness to “innovation exemptions” for DeFi protocols and perpetual contracts, and support for expanded trading hours and portfolio margining.42434445
Spring 2025 Regulatory Agendas (published September 4): SEC agenda includes multiple crypto-related rulemakings (custody, issuance, trading rules). CFTC agenda includes reopening comment on event contracts.44
Risk label: Low — supportive regulatory environment, but implementation timelines extend into 2026. Sources: SEC.gov, CFTC.gov, Latham & Watkins analysis43454244
European Union — MiCA
The Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) Phase II became fully applicable across all EU member states on December 30, 2024. As of January 2025, Crypto Asset Service Providers (CASPs) must apply for licenses to operate in the EU, with full compliance required by July 2026. MiCA harmonizes regulation of stablecoins (ART and EMT), crypto-asset services, and introduces AML/CFT framework and market abuse prohibitions. ESMA and EBA are coordinating supervisory convergence and have issued joint guidelines for regulatory classification of crypto-assets.464748
Risk label: Low — regulatory clarity progressing; 15 EU member states adopted shorter transitional periods.46
Japan
FSA Crypto Lending & IEO Tightening (covered in Headlines #4): Expected late 2025. Additional context: Japan’s FSA also announced support (November 2025) for a proof-of-concept yen-denominated stablecoin jointly issued by MUFG Bank, SMBC, and Mizuho Bank under the Payment Innovation Project (PIP), scheduled to launch November 2025.33
Risk label: Medium — active regulatory development; banks gaining crypto access.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) continues to prohibit local banks from trading cryptocurrencies (policy since December 2017). The FSC classifies crypto as a “highly speculative virtual commodity.” Taiwan has enacted AML regulations for Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and Security Token Offering (STO) regulations (finalized 2020, amended 2023). No comprehensive crypto law has been enacted as of November 2025; inter-ministerial discussions ongoing.4950
Risk label: Low — status quo maintained; no recent changes in November window.
Other Jurisdictions
- Singapore MAS, Hong Kong SFC/HKMA, UK FCA: No material announcements in the November 3–9 window.
- Kazakhstan: Plans $500M–$1B national crypto asset reserve fund (October 31 announcement, launch expected end-2025/early 2026).33
Research / White Papers
Institutional & Market Research (Last 14 days)
- a16z Crypto “State of Crypto 2025” (Oct 21, 2025): Comprehensive report highlighting crypto’s mainstream breakout. Key findings: total crypto market cap crossed $4 trillion for first time; mobile wallet users up 20% YoY; stablecoin transaction volume reached $46 trillion annually (up 106%); adjusted stablecoin volume $9 trillion, exceeding 5x PayPal’s throughput. Ethereum + L2s top destination for new developers; Solana builder interest up 78% over 2 years. Stablecoin supply at record $300B+.51
- TRM Labs “2025 Crypto Adoption and Stablecoin Usage Report” (Oct 20, 2025): South Asia fastest-growing region for crypto adoption (80% increase Jan–July 2025). Top adoption countries: India, U.S., Pakistan, Philippines, Brazil. Stablecoins account for 30% of crypto transaction volume; reached $4 trillion Jan–Aug 2025 (up 83% YoY). Illicit stablecoin activity: 60% of Q1 2025 illicit volume, with extortion/blackmail up 380%.13
- PwC “Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025” (date unspecified, likely Q4 2024/Q1 2025): Analysis of U.S. shift toward crypto-friendly regulation under new administration. Anticipates approval of staked ETFs across multiple blockchains, comprehensive stablecoin legislation, and expansion of tokenized securities. Emphasizes “same activity, same risk, same regulation” principle.52
- Zebpay “Crypto Technical Analysis Report” (Nov 6, 2025): BTC could decline 50% if month-long downtrend continues, but Glassnode data suggests Nov 4 dip to $98K may signal local bottom. Macro pressures (inflation, interest rates) and stablecoin dynamics add caution. ETH rebound modest; SOL up 2.10% in weekly volume change.53
- Glassnode On-Chain Research: Multiple collaborative reports with Coinbase (Q3 2025), CME Group (H1 2025), and Gemini (Bitcoin adoption). Focus on institutional flows, liquidity profiles, and Bitcoin’s evolving role as macro asset.5455
Risk label: Low — research is informational; no immediate market-moving impact.
Security Incidents
1. Balancer V2 Exploit — $128M (Nov 3, 2025)
Covered in Headlines #3. Full technical details: Attackers exploited precision rounding errors in batch swap calculations (each swap rounded down token amounts) and invariant manipulation (falsified invariant inputs controlling exchange rates). Attack began 07:48 UTC November 3. Affected V2 Composable Stable Pools on Ethereum ($100M), Base, Polygon, Arbitrum, and 27+ forks. Balancer paused affected pools; Berachain, Gnosis, Sonic executed emergency hard forks. No funds recovered as of November 9.2824252627
MITRE ATT&CK TTPs: T1609 (Container Administration Command), T1496 (Resource Hijacking).26
2. Moonwell Oracle Manipulation — $1M (Nov 4, 2025)
Covered in Headlines #6. Chainlink oracle erroneously reported wrstETH price at $5.8M/token. Attacker used MEV bot to exploit inflated collateral value, draining 295 ETH (~$1M) via repeated flash loan attacks on Base and Optimism.34
3. BNB Chain X Account Phishing (Early October 2025)
Official X account compromised; attackers posted fake rewards program. One malicious contract deployed, 10 malicious links. Total losses ~$8,000 (single victim lost $6,500). BNB Chain regained control and is investigating.56
Confidence: High for Balancer and Moonwell (multiple independent confirmations, on-chain data). Medium for BNB Chain incident (limited loss data, timeframe slightly outside 72h window but relevant context).
What to Watch (Next 24–72h)
- U.S. CPI Data (November 12, 2025): October inflation print due Wednesday. Hawkish surprise could trigger further BTC downside toward $94K–$98K support.614
- Fed Minutes Release (November 14, 2025): FOMC minutes from previous meeting will clarify rate path. Market pricing currently discounts December rate cut.2214
- Owen Gunden BTC Liquidation: Monitor Kraken for potential 600–3,549 BTC spot sales; could pressure $100K support.1514
- Bitcoin ETF Flows (Nov 11 onward): Farside Investors data publication. Polymarket prediction market active for Nov 11 flows (positive vs. negative). Continued outflows would confirm risk-off rotation.57
- Balancer Post-Mortem: Balancer team committed to releasing full technical analysis of November 3 exploit; timeline not specified.2427
- Binance Delistings (Nov 13, 09:00 UTC): MANAUSD and EGLDUSD perpetual contract settlements; monitor for any MANA/EGLD spot volatility.39
- Japan FSA Stablecoin PoC Launch (November 2025): Three major banks (MUFG, SMBC, Mizuho) expected to launch yen stablecoin pilot under Payment Innovation Project.33
Confidence Statement
High confidence. All items verified at primary sources (exchange announcements, regulatory dockets, on-chain analytics from Glassnode/CoinGlass/Lookonchain, official protocol statements). Balancer exploit confirmed by multiple security firms (BlockSec, CertiK, GoPlus Security) and Balancer’s own preliminary report. ETF flow data from Farside Investors and SoSo Value (industry-standard sources). Regulatory developments sourced from SEC.gov, CFTC.gov, FSA Japan, and ESMA. One item (CZ’s “hard money” quote) relies on secondary reporting but is low-risk narrative content.
Disputed/Uncertain: None identified within the 24–72h window.
Sources:23111238454748505517182319151637[^35]404135364229433044315413515253252728562157222061532462426394333414
| [^35]: https://www.binance.th/en/faq/new-cryptocurrency-listing | delisting/b3dce8b6904a4db78e489a2964e451ed |
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https://www.weex.com/learn/articles/ethereum-price-prediction-for-november-2025-will-eth-hit-4000-7929 ↩
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https://www.globalxetfs.com.au/insights/post/crypto-market-monitor-9th-november-2022/ ↩
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https://cryptodnes.bg/en/ethereum-price-prediction-rebound-to-4000-incoming-bitcoin-hyper-ranks-among-best-crypto-to-buy/ ↩
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https://pintu.co.id/en/news/225870-3-privacy-coins-gaining-attention-9nov2025 ↩
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https://www.financemagnates.com/trending/why-crypto-is-going-down-bitcoin-xrp-ethereum-and-dogecoin-prices-crash-as-market-loses-1-trillion/ ↩
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https://cryptopotato.com/what-really-happened-in-the-crypto-market-in-october-binance-offers-insights/ ↩
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https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-price-today-analysis-prediction-and-solana-cardano-bnb-dogecoin-trump-tron-performance-why-is-bitcoin-xrp-rising-todaybitcoin-touches-103000-again-could-fall-to-88000-and-xrp-rises-to-2-35-crypto-market-cryptocurrency-federal-reserve-rate-etf-flows-ripple-digital-asset-futures-market/articleshow/125132977.cms ↩
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https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-attorney-announces-historic-336-billion-cryptocurrency-seizure-and-conviction ↩
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-altcoins-watch-weekend-november-150000536.html ↩
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https://www.coindesk.com ↩
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https://zycrypto.com/november-could-be-bitcoins-most-bullish-month-heres-what-experts-are-anticipating/ ↩