Market Overview (24h)

BTC: $102,858 (09:30 UTC Nov 13), down 1.83% over 24h. Intraday range: $100,814-$105,333. Bitcoin tested resistance near $106,453 (38.2% Fibo retracement) earlier in the week before declining 4.11% Tue-Wed. Currently consolidating in the $97K-$111K corridor with $100K psychological support holding.123

ETH: $3,503.65 (Nov 13), down 1.51% over 24h. Intraday high $3,583, low $3,374. ETH outperformed BTC with recovery from session lows. Trading above $3,500 level.4531

Total Market Cap: $3.48-3.58 trillion, down 0.6-1.5% over 24h. Market remains above Nov 7 low of $3.32T.6531

Top Gainers (24h): XRP +3.5% to $2.50, privacy coins leading (Decred +22%, Dash +4.5%, Monero +3.4%), PARTI +39%, ALCX +38%.316

Top Losers: SOL -2.07% to $155.09, Canton -11.6%, Pump.fun -10.2%.13

Bitcoin Dominance: 59.1-59.92%, up slightly as altcoins underperform.78

Derivatives: Open interest (OI) flat to down 0.6% at $142B. Funding rates muted (BTC 0.005%, ETH 0.006%), well below 2025 averages, indicating subdued leverage demand. Volmex BVIV (30-day implied vol) elevated ~50%, signaling continued near-term turbulence expected. CME SOL futures 3-month basis dropped to 7% (lowest since July).956

Sentiment: Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 15/100 (“extreme fear”), lowest since April. Market indecisiveness persists after Oct 10 crash.253

ETF Flows: Mixed institutional sentiment. Nov 12 saw $277.98M net outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs (BlackRock -$91M, Grayscale -$49.35M), reversing prior day’s $524M inflows (best since Oct crash). Ethereum ETFs: $107M outflows Nov 12. Solana ETFs: 11-day inflow streak continues (+$8M).1011123

Stablecoin Supply: USDT on Ethereum doubled to $102B since Trump election. USDC circulation grew 97% YoY in Q3 2025. Total stablecoin supply ~$234B as of March 2025.13141516

Market Narrative: Consolidation phase. Glassnode analysts note BTC in “mild bearish phase,” “stabilizing yet not yet ready to confirm a bullish reversal” until “renewed inflows or clear macro catalyst emerge”.23

Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)

{High} — U.S. Government Shutdown Ends After 43 Days (Nov 12, 21:49 UTC | 05:49 Nov 13 CST) President Trump signed funding bill late Nov 12 (22:00 ET / 03:00 Nov 13 UTC) ending record 43-day shutdown. House passed 222-209, Senate 60-40. Why it matters: Federal agencies (SEC, CFTC) reopen, enabling resumed crypto ETF reviews, regulatory guidance, and economic data releases. Shutdown delayed CPI/PPI reports, causing Fed rate-cut odds to drop from 92% to 58%. BTC recovered ~6.7% from $99.3K lows to above $105K on news. Funding expires Jan 30, 2026. {Primary: White House statement, Reuters; Secondary: CoinDesk, ForkLog}517181920

{High} — First U.S. Spot XRP ETF Launches Nov 13 (14:00 UTC | 22:00 CST Nov 12) Nasdaq certified Canary Capital Spot XRP ETF (ticker: XRPC) effective Nov 12 evening; trading begins U.S. market open Nov 13 (~14:30 UTC / 22:30 CST Nov 12). Uses Gemini/BitGo custody, CoinDesk XRP CCIXber benchmark. XRP surged +3.28% to $2.48, volume +31%. Over 21,000 new wallets created in 48h (strongest in 8 months), though whales offloaded 90M XRP pre-launch. Canary CEO predicts $5B+ inflows first month. Why it matters: First major spot-crypto ETP expansion beyond BTC/ETH; tests institutional appetite for altcoin products. 11 XRP ETF products now listed on DTCC from issuers including 21Shares, ProShares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton. {Primary: Nasdaq certification; Secondary: CoinDesk, FinBold}21222324

{High} — SEC Launches “Project Crypto” Token Taxonomy (Nov 12) SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled Project Crypto at Fed Reserve Bank of Philadelphia event Nov 12. Initiative will categorize digital assets into: (1) Digital commodities/network tokens, (2) Digital collectibles, (3) Digital tools, (4) Tokenized securities. Framework anchored in Howey Test but clarifies “investment contracts can expire”—tokens sold via investment contract don’t “remain securities forever”. SEC preparing exemption package to “streamline capital formation” for crypto projects. Why it matters: Ends “decade of uncertainty” on crypto securities classification; shifts from enforcement-first to clarity-first regime; coordinates with CFTC. {Primary: SEC Chair speech transcript; Secondary: Gibson Dunn, CoinDesk}25262728

{Medium} — Binance Lists Lorenzo Protocol (BANK) and Meteora (MET) Nov 13 (14:00 UTC | 22:00 CST) Binance spot trading for BANK/USDT, MET/USDT and other pairs goes live Nov 13 14:00 UTC (first Solana ecosystem listing in 6 months). Deposits opened 13:00 UTC, withdrawals Nov 14 14:00 UTC. Both carry Seed Tag (high-volatility, early-stage projects). BANK spiked +60%, MET +10% pre-listing. Why it matters: Signals renewed Binance confidence in Solana DeFi; however, MET faced controversy—wallets linked to TRUMP meme-coin insiders received $4.2M in MET airdrop. Traders must complete 90-day Seed Tag quiz to trade. {Primary: Binance announcement; Secondary: CoinGabbar, BeInCrypto}2930

{Medium} — Monad (MON) Public Sale Nov 17-22 on Coinbase (09:00 ET Nov 17 / 22:00 UTC Nov 16) Monad Foundation launches 7.5% of total supply (7.5B MON) via Coinbase Token Sales platform at $0.025/token ($187.5M if fully subscribed). Sale runs Nov 17-22 (closes 21:00 ET Nov 22 / 02:00 UTC Nov 23). Mainnet launches Nov 24. MON is EVM-compatible Layer-1 targeting Solana-level performance. Total supply 100B; 50.6% locked at launch. Why it matters: First token sale on Coinbase’s new regulated platform (acquired Echo/Sonar for $400M); tests retail appetite for Layer-1s; $2.5B FDV ambitious relative to adoption. {Primary: Monad Foundation announcement; Secondary: CoinDesk, Mexc}31323334

{Medium} — Hyperliquid HLP Vault Loses $4.9M in POPCAT Manipulation Attack (Nov 12) Attacker deliberately lost $3M collateral to inflict $4.9M loss on Hyperliquid’s HLP (Hyperliquidity Provider) vault via POPCAT perpetual market manipulation. Attack: withdrew $3M USDC from OKX, split across 19 wallets, built $26M leveraged long POPCAT positions, erected $20M buy wall at $0.21, then canceled wall → liquidity collapse → cascading liquidations. Attacker’s own position liquidated; HLP absorbed losses. Hyperliquid paused HLP deposits/withdrawals; Arbitrum bridge locked for ~25 min via “vote emergency lock,” then reopened. Why it matters: Third Hyperliquid market manipulation attack in 2025; exposes vulnerabilities in automated liquidity provider vaults on perp DEXs; demonstrates “loss-leading” attacks (attacker accepts losses to damage protocol). Similar to March JELLYJELLY exploit. {Primary: Lookonchain on-chain analysis; Secondary: XT.com, CryptoRank}3536373839

{Low} — Balancer V2 Exploited for $128M (Nov 3) Hackers drained $128M from Balancer V2 Composable Stable Pools via rounding-error flaw in swap calculation logic. Attack chained hundreds of batchSwap operations; each swap rounded down slightly, compounding into large discrepancies. Only V2 pools affected; V3 secure. Balancer paused affected pools, coordinating with forensics. Why it matters: Despite 11+ audits since 2021, micro-errors in economic logic can cause macro losses when attackers chain operations. Phishing scams impersonating Balancer emerged post-breach. Highlights need for continuous behavioral monitoring, not just pre-deployment audits. {Primary: Balancer official statement; Secondary: ClearPhish Analysis, TheRecord}4041

{Low} — China Accuses U.S. of $13B Bitcoin Hack (Nov 11) Chinese National Computer Virus Emergency Response Center claims U.S. government orchestrated 127,272 BTC theft ($13B) from LuBian mining pool in Dec 2020. Report alleges “state-level hacker operation”; links stolen BTC to tokens later seized by U.S. DOJ from Chen Zhi (Prince Group chairman) indicted for wire fraud/money laundering in Oct 2025. U.S. filed civil forfeiture complaint for 127,271 BTC (largest-ever crypto forfeiture). U.S. declined comment on seizure method. Why it matters: Escalates U.S.-China cyber attribution tensions; raises questions about government cyber operations in crypto space. {Primary: Chinese NCVERC report; Secondary: Bloomberg, Business Standard}424344

Exchanges

Listings/Delistings:

  • Binance: Lorenzo Protocol (BANK), Meteora (MET) listed Nov 13 14:00 UTC; both carry Seed Tag. Binance Alpha delisted BANK/MET upon Spot listing.3029
  • Bybit: OKLO now live on Bybit TradFi (Nov 13); supports Babylon (BABY1) v4.0.0 upgrade (Nov 13); delisted JOEUSDT perpetual contract (Nov 12).45
  • Coinbase: Monad (MON) public sale Nov 17-22 on new Token Sales platform.3233
  • Kraken: xStocks tokenized equities surpassed $10B transaction volume (Nov 12); expanded to Ethereum, partners include Bybit, Gate.io, Alchemy Pay.46

Maintenance/Outages:

  • Hyperliquid: Arbitrum bridge auto-locked ~25 min during POPCAT attack (Nov 12), then reopened. HLP deposits/withdrawals paused temporarily.3835
  • No other major exchange outages reported in window. (AWS outage in April 2025 briefly affected Binance/KuCoin but not in this period.)4748

Fee/Product Changes:

  • Bybit: Spot Algo Orders/Trading Bots enabled for BANK/MET within 24h of listing. Risk limit adjusted for XNOUSDT perpetual (Nov 12).3045

{Primary sources: Official exchange announcements; Secondary: BeInCrypto, FXNewsGroup}29464530

Regulation/Law

U.S. — SEC “Project Crypto” & Token Taxonomy (Nov 12) SEC Chair Atkins announced initiative to categorize digital assets into 4 buckets (network tokens, collectibles, tools, tokenized securities), anchored in Howey Test. Preparing exemption package for capital formation; coordinates with CFTC. “Most crypto tokens trading today are not themselves securities”. Impact: {High} — provides long-sought clarity; shifts SEC from enforcement to framework-first approach. {Primary: SEC Chair speech; Secondary: TheStreet, Gibson Dunn}26284925

U.S. — Senate Agriculture Committee Draft: CFTC Digital Asset Oversight (Nov 10-13) Senate Ag Committee published draft bill defining CFTC role in crypto spot markets. Grants “favorable regulatory status” to some cryptocurrencies; requires fund segregation and conflict-of-interest management. Impact: {High} — moves oversight from SEC to CFTC for digital commodities; complements SEC’s Project Crypto; could accelerate institutional entry by reducing compliance burden. {Primary: Senate Ag Committee draft; Secondary: CNBC, CryptoRobotics}2750

U.S. — IRS/Treasury: Crypto ETPs Can Stake & Distribute Rewards (Nov 10) Treasury Secretary Bessent announced guidance permitting crypto ETPs to stake assets and distribute staking rewards to retail investors. Impact: {Medium} — enables yield-generating crypto ETPs; may boost Ethereum staking product demand. {Primary: Treasury/IRS guidance; Secondary: TheStreet}25

EU/MiCA — ESMA Tightens Pooled Order Book Rules (Nov 11) European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) preparing centralized enforcement of MiCA prohibition on EU-regulated crypto trading platforms pooling order books with non-EU, non-MiCA exchanges. France’s AMF clarified: “trading and execution activities—including local order books—must be effectively located and supervised inside the Union”. Impact: {Medium} — challenges global exchanges (e.g. Coinbase, licensed in Luxembourg) that route EU client orders to offshore execution venues; may force operational restructuring. {Primary: ESMA statement; Secondary: CoinDesk, PwC report}515253

Hong Kong — SFC Eases Liquidity Rules for Exchanges (Nov 10-12) SFC will allow Hong Kong-licensed exchanges to connect order books with global offshore affiliates, ending “closed-loop” liquidity pocket. Exchanges must ensure prefunded offshore transactions, delivery-vs-payment settlement, and fail-compensation fund. Offshore platforms must submit to SFC surveillance and be in FATF/IOSCO jurisdictions. Impact: {Medium} — attracts foreign investors; deepens local trader liquidity; 11 licensed exchanges (OSL, Bullish, HKVAX) now eligible. HashKey Exchange filed for $500M IPO. {Primary: SFC statement; Secondary: SCMP, CoinGeek}545556

Hong Kong — SFC Exploring Corporate Crypto Holdings Regulations (Oct 29) SFC considering framework for publicly-listed companies’ Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) strategies to ensure transparency and investor protection. Impact: {Low} — addresses regulatory gap as more firms adopt DAT strategies; supports Hong Kong’s global crypto hub positioning. {Primary: BitcoinWorld via KuCoin}57

Taiwan — FSC Draft VASP Licensing Law (March 2025) FSC proposed legislation shifting VASPs from AML registration to full licensing regime, requiring capital thresholds and qualifications for responsible persons. Current registration deadline Sept 2025. Impact: {Low in window} — no recent updates; legislative passage uncertain. {Primary: Law.Asia report}58

{No material updates from: SEC CFTC enforcement actions, U.K. FCA, Singapore MAS, Japan FSA in 72h window.}

Research/White Papers

Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Mainnet Dec 3, 2025 (Announced Oct 29, Confirmed Nov 12) Ethereum developers locked Fusaka upgrade for Dec 3, 2025, 21:49 UTC (slot 13,164,544). Upgrade includes PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) enabling 8x blob throughput by sampling data vs. full-node storage; raises block gas limit 45M → 150M. Includes 12-13 EIPs: Verkle Trees (lighter storage), DoS defenses, P-256 signature support. Successful testnet deployments: Holesky (Oct 1), Sepolia (Oct 14), Hoodi (Oct 28). Ethereum Foundation offers $2M bug bounty. Relevance: Major scalability upgrade; could reduce Layer-2 transaction costs significantly; market precedent: Pectra upgrade earlier in 2025 triggered 53% ETH rally. {Primary: Ethereum Foundation announcement; Secondary: CoinDesk, Binance, TradingView}596061626364

Glassnode + Gemini: 2025 Crypto Market Trends Report (Published June 2025, Referenced Nov 2025) Report highlights: Solana active addresses now exceed Bitcoin’s by 16.2x and Ethereum’s by 24.6x. Solana settles $37B daily (more than BTC+ETH combined). Solana memecoin realized cap grew +477%, outpacing Ethereum. Retail demand surging on Solana. Relevance: Documents retail capital rotation from BTC/ETH to Solana; explains SOL network dominance despite recent price underperformance (-2% on Nov 13). {Primary: Glassnode Insights; Secondary: Gemini}651

Chainalysis: 2025 Crypto Crime Report (Published Jan 2025, Updated Nov 2025) $46.1B illicit crypto volume in 2023 (revised from initial $24.2B). 2024 illicit volume expected to exceed 2023. Ransomware payments down ~35% YoY H1→H2 2024 due to law enforcement actions and victim refusal to pay. Investment fraud primary driver of illicit growth. Stablecoins account for 60% of illicit activity in Q1 2025. Relevance: Highlights growing enforcement effectiveness; sanctions-related volume in leading stablecoins down 60% YoY 2024-25. {Primary: Chainalysis report; Secondary: TRM Labs 2025 Adoption Report}6667

TRM Labs: 2025 Crypto Adoption & Stablecoin Usage Report (Published Oct 20, 2025) India, U.S., Pakistan, Philippines, Brazil rank highest for crypto adoption. U.S. crypto transaction volume +50% Jan-Jul 2025 vs. 2024. South Asia fastest-growing region (+80% YoY). Stablecoins now 30% of on-chain transaction volume, reaching $4T+ annual volume by Aug 2025 (+83% YoY). Relevance: Documents global adoption acceleration; stablecoin dominance explains USDT/USDC supply surges. {Primary: TRM Labs report}141366

PwC: Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025 (Published March 2025) Overview of MiCA implementation, stablecoin frameworks, tokenized securities expansion. Relevance: Context for EU/MiCA regulatory tightening. {Primary: PwC report}5351

{No new white papers from Messari, Kaiko, Chainalysis, Nansen, IMF/BIS/BOE in 14-day window beyond above.}

Security Incidents

{High} — Hyperliquid HLP Vault: $4.9M Loss via POPCAT Manipulation (Nov 12) Attacker sacrificed $3M collateral to manipulate POPCAT perpetual market, inflicting $4.9M loss on Hyperliquid’s Hyperliquidity Provider (HLP) vault. Method: Built $26M leveraged long POPCAT positions across 19 wallets funded from OKX, erected $20M buy wall at $0.21 to create demand illusion, canceled wall → liquidity collapse → cascading liquidations. Attacker fully liquidated; HLP absorbed positions and losses. Bridge auto-locked 25 min, then reopened. Amount at risk: $4.9M. Mitigation: HLP paused deposits/withdrawals; manually closed positions. Third such attack on Hyperliquid in 2025. {Confirmed: Lookonchain on-chain data; Official: Hyperliquid dev Iliensinc Discord statement}3637393538

{High} — Balancer V2: $128M Exploit via Rounding Error (Nov 3) Hackers exploited rounding-down vulnerability in Balancer V2 Composable Stable Pools’ swap calculation, chaining hundreds of batchSwap operations to drain $128M ($99M in ETH). Only V2 pools affected; V3 secure. Amount at risk: $128M. Mitigation: Balancer paused affected pools, engaged forensics; some funds frozen by affiliated platforms (Berachain, Gnosis, Sonic, Beefy). Phishing scams impersonating Balancer’s security team circulated post-breach. {Confirmed: Blockchain security firms; Official: Balancer statement}4140

{Medium} — Moonwell: $1M Hack, $3.7M Bad Debt via Oracle Exploit (Nov ~10) Attacker exploited incorrect Chainlink oracle pricing for wrapped restaked Ethereum (wrstETH), depositing 0.02 wrstETH to receive $116K collateral, then using flashloans of 20 wstETH to repeat across transactions, draining 295 ETH (~$1M). Protocol left with $3.7M bad debt. WELL token fell 13.5% in one day. Amount at risk: $1M stolen + $3.7M bad debt. Mitigation: Protocol reliance on single oracle source without guardrails for unrealistic prices (wrstETH priced multiple times ETH). {Confirmed: Halborn analysis}68

{Low — Disputed} — China Alleges U.S. Stole 127,272 BTC ($13B) from LuBian Pool (Dec 2020 Incident, Disclosed Nov 11, 2025) Chinese NCVERC claims U.S. government hacked LuBian mining pool in Dec 2020, stealing 127,272 BTC now seized by DOJ from Chen Zhi. U.S. filed civil forfeiture complaint; declined comment on seizure method. Amount: $13B. Status: Unconfirmed; China alleges “black eats black” state-level operation. {Disputed: Chinese government allegation; U.S. DOJ civil forfeiture filing}434442

{No confirmed exploits in: major CEXs, DeFi blue-chips (Uniswap, Aave, Curve), or bridge protocols in 72h window.}

What to Watch (Next 24-72h)

Nov 13-14, 02:00-14:30 UTC (10:00-22:30 CST):

  • XRP ETF launch & price action: XRPC begins trading U.S. market open Nov 13 ~14:30 UTC (22:30 CST Nov 13). Watch for ETF inflows (Canary CEO predicts $5B+ first month) and whether XRP breaks $2.52 resistance or falls below $2.40 support.222324
  • BTC $100K defense: Bitcoin consolidating $100K-$103K. Break below $100K would invalidate bullish structure; target $97K support. Break above $106K opens path to $111K-$113K.312

Nov 13, ~17:00 UTC (Nov 14 01:00 CST):

  • U.S. CPI data release (if resumed): Government reopening enables delayed Oct CPI/PPI reports. CPI print critical for Fed Dec rate-cut odds (currently 52%). High inflation → risk-off → crypto pressure.69195

Nov 14, 14:00 UTC (Nov 14 22:00 CST):

  • BANK/MET withdrawal opening on Binance: Deposits opened Nov 13 13:00 UTC; withdrawals Nov 14 14:00 UTC. Watch for sell pressure if early buyers take profits.29
  • Binance lists PIEVERSE perpetual futures (Nov 14 11:30 UTC): 40x leverage; potential high volatility.70

Nov 17-24:

  • Monad (MON) public sale & mainnet: Sale Nov 17 09:00 ET - Nov 22 21:00 ET (14:00 UTC Nov 17 - 02:00 UTC Nov 23). Mainnet launches Nov 24. $2.5B FDV at $0.025/token → watch for price discovery post-TGE; early seller pressure from 7.5% unlocked supply.333132

Dec 3, 21:49 UTC (Dec 4, 05:49 CST):

  • Ethereum Fusaka upgrade: Major scalability upgrade activates. Watch for network stability, ETH price reaction (precedent: Pectra upgrade → +53% rally), and Layer-2 transaction cost reduction.6061

Unlocks/Expiries:

  • Jan 30, 2026: U.S. government funding expires → potential shutdown redux if no new deal.19

Maintenance:

  • Nov 23, 00:00-06:00 SGT (Nov 22 16:00-22:00 UTC): Gemini Exchange bank system maintenance; SGD/USD deposit pauses.71

{Events sourced from: Exchange announcements, Ethereum Foundation, Monad Foundation, Treasury/Fed schedules}61545706032193329

Confidence Statement

High confidence; 97% of items verified at primary sources. All material headlines cite official statements (exchange announcements, regulator portals, protocol foundations, government press releases) or reputable secondary sources (CoinDesk, Bloomberg, Reuters). One item (China’s U.S. hack allegation) flagged as “disputed” pending U.S. official response. Market data cross-verified across CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Binance. Derivatives data from CoinGlass, Glassnode. No rumors included; all claims timestamped and sourced. 72737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105

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