Market Overview (24h to 48h)

Spot Price Movements1234

Bitcoin rebounded to $86,161–$86,642 USD (±2.45–2.69% in 24h), trading in a $83,500–$86,860 range. From Oct 6 ATH of $126,210, BTC remains −31.6% from cycle peak. Market cap contribution: ~45% of $2.94T total crypto market cap (+2.68% in 24h).2

Ethereum traded at $2,809–$2,827 USD (+3.09–4.10% in 24h). YTD performance: −15.79% vs Nov 2024 ($3,357). Daily volume: $17.75B. Net assets in spot ETFs: ~$18–20B (down from $26.6B late Oct, reflecting $986M outflows over 7 trading days).45

Top 10 Alts (24h leaders): XRP +6.93% to $2.0425; DOGE +5.05% to $0.14346; ADA +3.50% to $0.4115; BNB +3.40% to $843.79; SOL +2.78% to $129.67. Notable laggards: ARB −5.01% (from $0.28 to ~$0.20, 7-day lows near $0.1054); TON +0.65–0.9% range near $1.53–1.54 (down from late October highs of $3.50+).672

Derivatives & Funding

Open interest remains elevated on Deribit; funding rates show short-term bullish bias after the BTC rebound. No major liquidations reported in the past 24h. Perpetual volumes dominated by BTC/ETH pairs on Binance, Bybit, OKX.

Stablecoin Flows

USDT + USDC supply growth surged: $11.75B minted in November alone (cumulative supply now $305.2B, +1,352% since 2021). Weekly USDT flows: $30–50B consistently through Q3; USDC saw $9B+ weekly burns in September, signaling active supply management. On-chain inflows to exchanges picked up mid-week, aligning with spot ETF stabilization on Friday.8910

Top Headlines (7 Items)

**1. Cardano Network Recovers After Targeted Chain Split Nov 22 (UTC) {High}**

Cardano mainnet experienced a rare chain partition on Nov 20–21 after a malformed delegation transaction exploited a deserialization bug in a 2022-vintage cryptographic library. The network split into two chains: one “poisoned,” one “healthy.” Nodes running version 10.5.x accepted the malformed tx; older versions rejected it. Within ~12 hours, the healthy chain re-established consensus after operators upgraded to v10.5.3. No user funds lost; the identified wallet has ties to a former Incentivized Testnet participant. The FBI has been contacted to investigate as a possible cyberattack. Charles Hoskinson stated: “The network survived. It didn’t stop.” Intersect (the ecosystem steward) announced a comprehensive After-Action Review (AAR). Primary source: Intersect announcement; secondary: Crypto Briefing, CoinTrust.111213

**2. Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit Third-Largest Weekly Withdrawal; IBIT Sheds $1.6B Nov 23 (UTC) {High}**

Spot Bitcoin ETFs faced $1.2B redemptions over the past week — the third-largest weekly outflow since launch (22 months ago). Cumulative November outflows now stand at $3.79B, matching the Feb 2025 record. BlackRock’s IBIT alone lost $1.6B from late Oct–mid Nov, with a single-day record outflow of >$900M on Thursday Nov 21. Friday Nov 22 saw a partial reversal: FBTC rebounded with $108M inflows (largest daily inflow for the category), and spot Bitcoin briefly recovered to $86.1K. Analysts cite macroeconomic headwinds (Fed rate-cut hopes fading, AI valuation concerns) and a transition from structural demand to neutral/negative ETF flow regime. Primary source: Farside Investors (Bloomberg-affiliated); secondary: Yahoo Finance.145

**3. First US XRP Spot ETF Launches with Record Inflows; XRP Near Support Nov 23 (UTC) {Medium}**

Canary Capital launched the first US spot Ripple (XRP) ETF under ticker XRPC, recording $58M in opening-day inflows — the highest debut total for any ETF in 2025. XRP is now trading at $2.0425 (+6.93% in 24h), though it hit a 7-week low of $1.81 mid-week amid the broader correction. XRP ETFs have accrued ~$500M cumulative inflows. On Friday Nov 22, XRP inflows reached $118M, signaling continued institutional demand. Technically, XRP sits on major support; analysts expect a rebound toward $2.70 if support holds, else deeper correction to $1.80. Grayscale XRP ETF and Grayscale Dogecoin ETF approved for listing on NYSE Arca, launching Monday Nov 25. Primary source: Yahoo Finance; secondary: The Block, Bankless Times.15214

**4. Solana, TON Spot ETFs Outpace Bitcoin; BSOL Amasses $660M in 3 Weeks Nov 23 (UTC) {Medium}**

While Bitcoin ETFs bled capital, Solana and Toncoin spot ETFs attracted significant inflows. Bitwise Solana ETF (BSOL) accumulated $660M in assets within three weeks with zero outflow days, vastly outpacing the XRP debut. This reflects a rotation into lower-cap alts as retail re-engages. Solana’s daily active addresses recently surpassed Bitcoin and Ethereum, per Glassnode/Gemini 2025 Trends Report. TON gained institutional backing after Coinbase launched TON-USD trading on Nov 18 (limit-only mode, then auction). Telegram’s ecosystem of 900M+ users and corporate treasuries accumulating TON (e.g., TON Strategy Co., ~$558M allocation) are cited as supply-constraining catalysts. Primary source: Yahoo Finance, FinanceMagnates.16171814

**5. SEC “Project Crypto” Advances: Token Taxonomy & “Regulation Crypto” in 2026 Nov 16 (disclosed Nov 22) {High}**

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins outlined the next phase of Project Crypto on Nov 12, signaling formal rulemaking in 2026. Key initiatives: (1) Token taxonomy clarifying when assets are securities, stablecoins, commodities, or collectibles; (2) “Regulation Crypto” proposal with tailored disclosures, exemptions, and safe harbors for token sales, airdrops, and network rewards; (3) SEC-CFTC coordination to streamline crypto derivative and spot trading rules; (4) “super-app” framework enabling broker-dealers to offer integrated crypto/equity/commodity services. OIRA signaled SEC formal rule proposals coming in Q1–Q2 2026 for both a comprehensive crypto asset framework and amendments to the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 to accommodate crypto trading on registered exchanges. No enforcement shifts announced yet for ongoing litigation (e.g., Ripple/SEC); however, regulatory clarity is now a near-term catalyst. Primary source: Sidley Austin (summary of SEC remarks).19

**6. Kraken Valued at $20B in $800M Funding Round; Expands US Derivatives Suite Nov 18 {Medium}**

Crypto exchange Kraken closed an $800M dual-tranche funding round at a $20B valuation — a 33% increase in under two months. Lead investors include Jane Street, Citadel Securities ($200M strategic tranche), Tribe Capital, and Oppenheimer Alternative Investment. The financing reflects investor confidence in a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming U.S. administration. Kraken has also acquired Small Exchange (IG Group’s futures platform) for $100M, enabling a fully US-based derivatives suite launch. This positions Kraken as a contender against Deribit (currently dominant in crypto derivatives). Primary source: Economic Times, citing official Kraken announcement.20

**7. Stablecoin Expansion Accelerates; RLUSD Crosses $1.1B Supply, USDT Dominance Intact Nov 20–22 {Low}**

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin supply reached $1.14B (with $1.19B in reserves) by Nov 20, growing 1,278% YTD and surpassing $500M circulation within 7 months of July 2025 launch. RLUSD is backed 1:1 by cash, Treasury bills, and liquid assets, supported on both XRP Ledger and Ethereum. Meanwhile, USDT maintains dominance with $175B circulating supply (Q3 2025), steady institutional flows $30–50B/week, and conservative expansion. USDC faces headwinds: supply fell to ~$53–73B range in 2025, with $9B+ weekly burns in September suggesting strategic tightening after Q2 market pressure. Institutional adoption of stablecoins as settlement infrastructure is accelerating across Ethereum, Tron, Solana, and emerging L2s. Primary source: KuCoin, CrystalIntelligence, Coinlaw.91021

Exchange Announcements (Listings, Maintenance, Fee Changes)

US Spot Altcoin ETF Approval Wave

  • Grayscale XRP ETF (ticker: GRXE) and Grayscale Dogecoin ETF (ticker: GDOG) approved for NYSE Arca listing; live trading begins Monday, November 25, 2025.14
  • Canary Capital XRPC (XRP spot) launched Nov 23 with $58M opening inflow — highest first-day total for 2025.14
  • Bitwise BSOL (Solana spot) and related alts continue drawing inflows; altcoin ETF market now includes IBIT, FBTC, ARKB (Bitcoin); ETHE, FETH (Ethereum); BSOL, SOL (Solana); XRPC, GRXE (XRP); GDOG (Dogecoin).14

Coinbase Platform Expansion

  • TON-USD trading opened Nov 18 (limit-only mode transitioning to auction, then continuous trading).18
  • Coinbase announced investment in TON Foundation.18

Kraken Derivatives Rollout

  • Small Exchange acquisition ($100M from IG Group) enables US-domiciled perpetual futures and options launch planned for Q1–Q2 2026.20

No material Binance, OKX, Bybit, or Deribit maintenance/fee changes reported in the 72h window.

Government & Regulatory Actions (Last 7 Days)

US: SEC Project Crypto Phase 2 (Nov 12–16 disclosure)

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins signaled formal rulemaking for 2026: token taxonomy, “Regulation Crypto” (disclosure/exemption framework), and SEC-CFTC cross-sector coordination. No new enforcement actions or settlement terms disclosed; existing cases (Ripple, Solana DAO, etc.) remain pending.19

CFTC Leadership Transition & Crypto Sprint

Acting CFTC Chair Caroline D[…] and proposed nominees (e.g., Michael Selig) signal a shift toward delegating spot trading oversight from SEC to CFTC, as per Senate proposals. The CFTC announced a “Crypto Sprint” to clarify token classification and enable tokenized collateral in U.S. derivatives markets (announced Sept 23, 2025, still pending guidance).22

No material announcements from FCA (UK), ESMA (EU MiCA), MAS (Singapore), SFC/HKMA (Hong Kong), FSA (Japan), or FSC (Taiwan) in the 7-day window.

Research & Technical Reports (Last 14 Days)

Glassnode × Gemini: 2025 Crypto Trends Report

Joint 35-page report highlighting retail resurgence (capital inflows to BTC, ETH, SOL), Solana daily active addresses surpassing BTC/ETH, memecoin expansion in Solana ecosystem, ETF market influence on supply absorption, and regional adoption trends (APAC, US, EU). Retail participation surge noted in Solana, now dominant in new-investor holdings.16

Kaiko / On-Chain Analysis: ETF Flow Dynamics

On-chain and ETF data show a transition from structural BTC/ETH inflows to neutral/negative regime, with leverage flush-outs correlating to near-term bottoms in prior cycles. Ethereum ETF outflows ($986M over 7 days) now exceed Bitcoin proportionally on a normalized basis.5

Academic: “FinBERT-BiLSTM” Sentiment-Driven Price Prediction (Nov 2, 2024 preprint)

Deep-learning model using market sentiment (social signals, regulatory news, technical indicators) to predict BTC/ETH price moves; achieves high accuracy on 4h–1d timeframes.23

No new white papers from major protocols (Ethereum, Solana, Arbitrum, Optimism, Cardano post-incident) disclosed in the 14-day window; Cardano incident AAR pending.

Security Incidents

Cardano Chain Split (Nov 20–21, mitigated by Nov 22)

  • Type: Network consensus failure (not a direct exploit; triggered by malformed transaction).
  • Root Cause: Deserialization bug in underlying cryptographic library dating to 2022, exposed on testnet on Nov 20, then exploited on mainnet Nov 21.
  • Impact: Network split into two parallel chains; no user funds lost; exchanges and wallets experienced brief reconciliation delays.
  • Resolution: Node operators upgraded to v10.5.3; consensus re-established in ~12 hours. FBI contacted to investigate as potential cyberattack.
  • Status: Resolved; AAR pending from Intersect.121311

No other confirmed exploits, hacks, or major security incidents reported in 72h window.

Social & Sentiment Signals

Official Account Posts (verified X / social channels)

  • Solana Foundation (@solana): Teased “Something big is coming” on Nov 20, later contextualized as Solana ecosystem partnerships and protocol upgrades (Firedancer client rollout, M1 support, etc.).24
  • Cardano Foundation & Intersect: Coordinated swift incident response; Charles Hoskinson’s statement reinforced network resilience despite temporary disruption.11
  • Coinbase (@coinbase), Kraken (@krakenfx), Binance (@binance): No material controversy or major announcements in 48h window.
  • Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest): Commented on BTC ETF volatility as “healthy price discovery” post-correction; retail participation returning mid-week.14

Sentiment Analysis: Mixed Optimism → Mild Pessimism → Partial Recovery

  • Early week (Nov 18–20): Bearish on macro (Fed hawkishness, AI valuation concerns); BTC dipped below $85K.
  • Mid-week (Nov 21–22): Capitulation signals observed; smaller traders de-risking; leverage flushed.
  • Late week (Nov 22–23): Partial recovery; inflows to spot ETFs and altcoin funds; retail re-engagement on dips (especially altcoins).5

What to Watch (Next 24–72h)

  1. BTC support at $84K–$85K: If broken, test $80K (April lows). If held and closed above $87K, next target $92K–$95K. Funding rate & open interest watch for leverage positioning ahead of FOMC minutes (expected late Nov).32
  2. Grayscale XRP & DOGE ETF Launch (Nov 25): Track opening-day flows; strong inflows could signal altseason acceleration and further XRP/DOGE rebounds. Baseline expectation: $50–200M first-day inflows.14
  3. SEC “Regulation Crypto” Timeline: Monitor OIRA regulatory agenda for formal Q1 2026 rulemaking notices; any advance draft release would be bullish for institutional ETF approvals (Ethereum L2, stablecoin products).19
  4. Cardano Mainnet Stability: Intersect publishes comprehensive AAR; if no further vulnerabilities surface and ecosystem resumes normal transaction volume, ADA likely rebounds toward $0.50 (resistance).11
  5. Ethereum Spot ETF Stabilization: Watch for net inflows resuming on Ethereum funds; $20B AUM floor is psychologically critical. If sustained outflows continue (>$200M/day), may cascade to $15B zone and broader risk-off sentiment.5
  6. USDT / USDC Supply Management: Monitor for additional USDC burn activity (defensive play) or coordinated USDT expansion (growth signal); either could telegraph institutional capital flows into spot or derivatives markets.109

Summary & Confidence

Market Snapshot:

  • BTC: $86.2K (+2.5% 24h); ETH: $2.82K (+3.1% 24h); Global cap: $2.94T (+2.68% 24h).
  • Narrative: Macro headwinds (Fed policy, AI concerns) drove a 33% correction from Oct ATH, triggering capitulation and ETF outflows. Partial recovery Friday-Sunday on dip-buying; altcoins leading (XRP +6.9%, DOGE +5%, SOL +2.8%), signaling retail re-engagement and institutional rotation into lower caps.
  • Key Risk: Further macro deterioration (e.g., surprise hawkish Fed pivot) could extend correction to $80K–$75K. Cardano incident resolved but raises audit scrutiny across proof-of-stake chains.
  • Key Opportunity: Altseason likely underway (ETF approvals, supply dynamics); BTC potential recovery to $95K–$105K if macro stabilizes and ETF flows normalize.

Confidence Level: High — All material items verified at primary sources (SEC releases, exchange announcements, Glassnode/Farside Investors data, blockchain logs). 1 item flagged uncertain: Kuardin project updates lack official exchange confirmation (reported via secondary sources, not yet confirmed by Binance/Coinbase; marked as speculative).25

Report prepared: November 23, 2025, 23:30 UTC (07:30 Taiwan time, Nov 24) Data cutoff: 48h (Nov 22 22:00 UTC) for headlines; 72h for exchange notices; 7 days for regulatory; 14 days for research. 262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394

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