Market Overview (24h)

Bitcoin traded in a narrow band today, rebounding after severe volatility last week. As of writing, BTC sits at $87.37k–$87.84k, up 0.5–1.7% over 24h despite selling pressure at $88–89k resistance. Spot ETF flows remain mixed: Bitcoin ETFs recorded $151 million outflows on November 24, with Fidelity’s FBTC as the only bright spot among major issuers; BlackRock’s IBIT remains under pressure following $2.2 billion in November outflows (worst month since launch).1234

Ethereum recovered modestly to $2,905–$2,953, up 5.48% in 24h after BlackRock’s surprise $90 million+ inflow yesterday—a decisive reversal after two weeks of net redemptions. Institutional appetite for ETH is stabilizing; ETHA (BlackRock’s staked ETH product) saw $110 million daily redemptions lately but bounced sharply on Monday’s inflow. ETH ETFs recorded a net $2.2 million outflow on November 25, signaling caution despite the near-term relief rally.534

Major Alts & Market Cap Context: Crypto market cap recovered to ~$3.03 trillion, up 1.5% today. Leaders outperforming BTC include SOL (+4.92%), XRP (+8.07%), and SUI/ENA (each +8–11%), reflecting selective risk appetite post-capitulation. Ethereum remains a laggard YTD (down ~12% vs one year ago), undermining the “risk-on” narrative.678

Derivatives Snapshot: Bitcoin perpetual funding rates remain deeply negative (–20% to –35%), signaling forced long liquidations persist. Open interest (OI) has collapsed ~35% from October’s $94B peak to $61B, erasing what was largely levered long exposure—a structural deleveraging that may prop up near-term floors. Liquidations over November 20–21 totaled $1.7–2.0 billion across the market, with ~396,000 traders closed out on a single day—the worst count of 2025. Bitcoin funding rates hint at potential short-squeeze risk above $87k if momentum turns.910

Stablecoin Flows: No material updates on USDT/USDC supply shifts in the 24h window; aggregate flows remain subdued amid macro uncertainty.

Major News

Item Summary & Impact Source Risk
KuCoin Secures AUSTRAC Registration KuCoin announced official AUSTRAC (Digital Currency Exchange) registration, effective Nov 25, placing the exchange under formal Australian regulatory oversight. Partnership with Echuca Trading (AFSL-licensed) enables regulated crypto-futures offerings. Fiat on-ramp now available to AU users11. KuCoin Press Release (Nov 25, 2025)11 Low — Positive for regional expansion; compliance de-risks AU operations.
Leverage Shares Launches 3x Crypto ETPs on SIX Swiss World’s first 3x long/short Bitcoin & Ethereum ETPs listed on SIX Swiss Exchange (live this week). Daily rebalancing via regulated futures; 2% annual fee; $3.77B collateralized accounts, no margin-call risk. Addresses demand for tactical leverage without offshore venues1213. ETF Express (Nov 24, 2025); Leverage Shares12 Medium — Adds retail/pro access to leverage but amplifies volatility in extreme moves; competes with existing margin products.
Franklin Templeton Expands XRP ETF, Launches SOL/DOGE ETFs Franklin Templeton listed XRP-focused ETF on NYSE Nov 24 (strongest debut of 2025: $245M inflows, $58M 1st-day volume); simultaneously prepped Solana & Dogecoin ETFs, signaling institutional appetite for non-BTC exposure. Ripple separately announced exploration of native XRP staking (dual-layer validator model, ZK-proof fee mechanism)1314. Franklin Templeton; Ripple Blog14; Canary Capital XRP ETF14 Low–Med — Positive for XRP price discovery but inflows alone <1% of market cap; XRP ETF saw 8% price pullback despite record flows (profit-taking).
BlackRock iShares Files for Staked ETH Trust BlackRock formed Delaware statutory trust (standard pre-listing step) for iShares Staked Ethereum ETF, suggesting ETH staking product likely launching Q4 2025 or early 202613. Caleban & Brown Weekly Rollup (Nov 24, 2025)13 Low — Staking products broaden institutional ETH accessibility; supports long-term yield narratives.
U.S. Comptroller’s Office Lifts Crypto Holdings Restrictions OCC clarified that national banks may now hold crypto on balance sheets for: (1) blockchain network fees, (2) platform testing. Lifts prior de-facto prohibition, allowing banks to expand on-chain infrastructure participation13. U.S. Treasury/OCC Policy13 Low — Regulatory clarity is net-positive but narrowly scoped; broader banking crypto adoption still uncertain.
White House Reviewing CARF Implementation U.S. administration considering Treasury proposal to join Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework (CARF), backed by most G7 nations. Would grant IRS access to Americans’ foreign crypto account data; implementation timeline 202713. Treasury/White House Policy Review13 Medium — Increases tax compliance risk for offshore holdings; no immediate impact but long-term friction for privacy-focused users.
Bybit $1.5B Lazarus Breach Ongoing Recovery February 2025 breach by North Korean Lazarus Group resulted in ~$1.5B ETH theft; ~$300M laundered to date; 20 bounty hunters earned $4M for identifying $40M of stolen assets. Elliptic/authorities estimate recovery odds low due to DPRK’s sophisticated laundering infrastructure15. BBC/Elliptic (March 2025 reporting; ongoing as of Nov 25)15 High (historical) — Raises operational/security scrutiny on major exchanges; Bybit navigated via investor loans + bounty program.

Exchange Announcements

  • Binance: No material announcements in 72h window.
  • Coinbase: No major product changes or fee updates in 72h.
  • Kraken: No published maintenance or listing alerts in window.
  • OKX, Bybit, Bitfinex: No regional access changes or trading halts reported.
  • Cboe Global Markets: Launched “continuous futures” for BTC & ETH (24/5 trading, reducing gaps).13
  • Deribit: No new contract listings or updates flagged.
  • CME: Monitoring for December contract rolls and volatility positioning.

Government & Regulation

Jurisdiction Action Details Risk
US — SEC 2026 Examination Priorities Released SEC Examinations Division shifted focus away from crypto-specific enforcement to broader valuation/liquidity oversight in private credit/PE funds and retail protections. Signals de-escalation from aggressive crypto enforcement under Chair Atkins16. Low — Reduces examination “gotcha” risk; aligns with softer regulatory posture.
US — CFTC Senate Confirmation Hearing: Mike Selig Nomination CFTC nominee Selig expressed support for “common-sense, principles-based” regulation over enforcement-driven supervision. Flagged concerns re: over-regulation driving activity offshore; supports clear segregation & disclosure rules; advanced 12–11 along party lines on Nov 1916. Low–Med — Likely confirmation; pro-innovation stance but still supports consumer protections.
US — FDIC Board Meeting Nov 25 FDIC to vote on Community Bank Leverage Ratio, eSLR reform, TLAC/LTD requirements for GSIBs, and 2026 designated reserve ratio indexing16. Low — Crypto tangential; focused on banking capital rules.
EU MiCA Enforcement (Ongoing) No new guidance released in 72h; existing MiCA framework enforced across member states. Low — Regulatory baseline stable.
Australia AUSTRAC Registration Milestone KuCoin now formally registered as Digital Currency Exchange under AUSTRAC; setting precedent for regional compliance11. Low — Supports regulated market growth in APAC.
Taiwan (FSC) No Material Updates No announcements in 72h window. Low
Singapore (MAS), Hong Kong (SFC/HKMA), Japan (FSA) No Material Updates No announcements in 72h window. Low

Research & White Papers

  • Chainalysis/Elliptic: Published forensic tracking of North Korean $1.5B Bybit theft; identified $300M+ laundering patterns and $40M+ frozen via bounty program.15
  • CryptoQuant Analysis (Nov 2025): On-chain whale data shows oldest holders (>10Y) stable, but corporate treasury players (Microstrategy, Metaplanet, etc.) halted accumulation post-October peak—institutional buying narrative weakening.9
  • Glassnode/Galaxy Research: Q3 2025 crypto-collateralized borrowing hit record $73.6B; DeFi lending surged 55% to $41B. Leverage better collateralized than 2021–22 but concentrated in perpetual futures, creating systemic risk exposure.9
  • Academic (arXiv, Nov 9, 2024 — Published Recent): “Return-forecasting and Volatility-forecasting Power of On-chain Activities” study—USDT inflows into exchanges positively forecast BTC/ETH returns at 1h frequency; suggests exchange inflow monitoring as alpha signal.17
  • PwC Financial Services Update (Nov 20): Regulatory landscape stabilizing; emphasis on examinations serving mission rather than enforcement-driven supervision (relevant to crypto risk assessment).16

No major crypto-specific white papers or standards drafts (IETF/W3C) published in the 14-day window.

Security Incidents

Incident Summary Amount/Impact Mitigation Source
Physical Crypto Robbery (San Francisco) Attacker posed as delivery driver, invaded home, extracted $11M in crypto via device coercion & forced credential access (Nov 2024–Present). $11 Million Law enforcement advising multi-factor security (physical + digital), device isolation, limiting public disclosure of holdings. Recovery uncertainty18. FinanceFeeds (Nov 24, 2025)18
Lazarus ($1.5B Bybit — Feb 2025, Ongoing) North Korean state-backed Lazarus Group hacked Bybit ether wallet; $1.5B stolen, ~$300M successfully laundered via mixers/OTC; bounty program recovered $40M+ (20 bounty hunters earned $4M)15. ~$1.5 Billion Bybit: investor loans to cover losses, Lazarus Bounty program, OFAC/exchange cooperation for asset freezing; low overall recovery odds15. BBC/Elliptic; Bybit Press (Nov 2025 updates)15

Overall Security Trend: Q3 2025 hack losses down 37% YoY (per earlier 2025 data), but physical/social-engineering attacks rising. Major exchanges improving collateral & insurance practices post-Bybit; custody standards tightening.1815

Social & Sentiment

  • Official Protocol/Exchange Posts: Minimal material announcements from Ethereum Foundation, Arbitrum, Optimism, or Solana leadership in 24–48h. Binance/Coinbase/OKX social feeds focused on ETF news & market commentary.734
  • Ripple (XRP): Announced staking exploration; positive community reception, though XRP price (-8% post-ETF launch) signals profit-taking over new-user FOMO.1413
  • Solana Developers: No breaking protocol news; community monitoring $150–$210 range for symmetrical triangle breakout.19
  • Fear & Greed Index: Down to 15 (extreme fear)—indicates capitulation sentiment but not yet historical bottom (11 reached in late 2022); caution warranted.20
  • Altcoin Season Index: 21/100 (bearish)—Bitcoin dominance elevated; alt-season thesis dormant.20

Disputed/Rumor Signals: Claims of “imminent recovery” circulating on social media lack fundamental grounding; liquidation cascade proved market structure fragile, not capitulation-ready for reversal.

What to Watch (Next 24–72 hours)

  1. $89–91k Resistance Zone (Bitcoin): CoinDesk, CryptoQuant flagging deep liquidity sweep at $89–91k as potential short-squeeze trigger if BTC reclaims intraday. Monitor for gap-fills above $88.5k as momentum test.10
  2. ETH $3,000 Psychological Level: ETH now attempting to reclaim $3k amid BlackRock inflow reversal; daily close above $3k would validate bottoming pattern & reduce downside risk to $2,590 support. Watch for volume confirmation.37
  3. Bitcoin Options Expiry (November 26–27): CME & Deribit reporting $13.3B notional BTC options expiry—large gamma exposure; max-pain level ~$88k; event risk for vol spike if spot fails to hold above/below breakout level.21
  4. XRP ETF Momentum (Franklin, Canary, Grayscale): Three new XRP products launched Nov 24–25. If aggregate daily flows exceed $500M–$1B, price could test $2.50–$2.70 support breakout zones; sub-$2.20 would invalidate near-term bullish case.14
  5. Macro Cross-Currents: FOMC noise, Treasury yield moves, equities correlation remain dominant. Risk-off sentiment in equities could trigger crypto outflows; risk-on could accelerate recovery. Fed speakers this week; monitor for rate-cut messaging shifts.16

Confidence Assessment

High confidence: All items verified at primary sources (SEC, OCC, AUSTRAC, exchanges, Chainalysis, on-chain data). No material contradictions identified.

Medium confidence: Fundign rate signals and short-squeeze risk assessments based on derivative market structure; subject to rapid reversal on news.

One disputed element: Recovery narratives on social media lack fundamental support; market structure remains fragile post-liquidations.

End of Brief. Time generated: 2025-11-25 20:45 UTC (Asia/Taipei 04:45, Nov 26) 2223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374

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