Market Overview (24h)

Spot Moves: Bitcoin consolidated around $87–88K (+0.19% 24h); Ethereum slipped to $2,917–2,945 (-0.65% 24h; -16.3% YoY). XRP held $1.87 (+0.9%; consolidating near support) while Solana fell to $122 from $126 mid-week—a multi-month low driven by Upbit hack sentiment. Top altcoins (ADA, DOGE, SUI) suffered sharp December declines; Bitcoin’s relative strength (690% cycle gain) underscored institutional preference for macro safety.12345

Derivatives: Bitcoin options open interest hit all-time high $50.27B with 454K contracts; call–put ratio 1.68x signals bullish bias despite price weakness. Funding rates flat-to-muted (+0.01% across Binance, BitMEX, Bybit, Kraken); ETH funding negative, reflecting underperformance. December 18–24 saw $550M+ liquidations concentrated in altcoins, with no extreme leverage excesses post-event.6789

ETF Flows: Bitcoin ETFs saw -$55.6M net outflows December 22 (IBIT -$3.8M, FBTC -$3.8M, ARKB -$21.2M), reversing earlier gains. However, monthly inflows remain positive (+$73.3M aggregate); IBIT holds ~$100B AUM (48.5% market share) as BlackRock and Fidelity battle for institutional capital. Total BTC ETF AUM ~$119.4B (6.5% of total Bitcoin market cap), indicating structural institutional adoption.101112

Narrative: Range-bound consolidation with sector rotation favoring AI/DeFi tokens (Canton Network, 0G, Zcash) over Layer 2s and PayFi (Trump Token down 21% monthly). Macro: S&P 500 at record highs; gold also at ATH—safe-haven competition for risk capital. Bottom Line: Bitcoin defending $87K; altcoins building bases post-deleveraging; institutional flows stabilizing but directionally uncertain heading into year-end.

Top Headlines

1. Nvidia–Groq $20B Licensing Deal | AI Inference Validation Nvidia announced a $20 billion non-exclusive licensing agreement with AI chip startup Groq on December 24–25—Nvidia’s largest deal on record, surpassing the $6.9B Mellanox acquisition (2020). The deal centers on integrating Groq’s proprietary Language Processing Unit (LPU) technology for ultra-low-latency AI inference. Groq remains independent; founder Jonathan Ross, president Sunny Madra, and team hired by Nvidia; GroqCloud continues operations.231

Why It Matters: The shift from AI model training to real-world deployment (inference) is critical infrastructure for decentralized AI networks (0G, Opaque Systems) and on-chain compute. Nvidia’s vertical control—training (Blackwell/Rubin) + inference (Groq LPU)—could accelerate adoption of AI-native blockchains while posing centralization risk. Bitcoin’s +0.19% 24h uptick partly attributed to this validation of enterprise AI infrastructure thesis. Risk: Medium. Positive for on-chain AI adoption; negative for decentralized-inference competition.312

2. Binance Ethereum Wallet Maintenance | Dec 25, 06:00 UTC Binance scheduled wallet maintenance on Ethereum for December 25, 06:00–07:00 UTC; deposits/withdrawals suspended 05:55 UTC; trading unaffected. Routine technical work; low-to-zero market impact if completed on schedule. Risk: Low.45

3. Upbit Phased Service Restart Post-$36.8M Hack | SOL Ecosystem Under Scrutiny South Korea’s largest exchange suffered a ~$36.8M theft on November 27 (4:42 AM KST)—primarily Solana-based assets (SOL, USDC, 20+ tokens). Attribution: Lazarus Group (DPRK link), echoing the 2019 breach (342K ETH). Attack vector: Compromised Safe{Wallet} multisig frontend (malicious JavaScript injection); not cryptographic compromise—a key lesson for infrastructure providers.76

Response: Upbit immediately froze deposits/withdrawals and migrated remaining assets to cold storage (air-gapped hardware). Successfully froze ~$8.18M in specific tokens (LAYER, others). 100% user loss coverage pledged from corporate reserves. Phased restart began December 1; Ethereum ecosystem + AKT live; other assets undergoing security verification. Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) on-site inspection through December 5; Naver Financial acquisition ($10B+) proceeding toward June 2026 close.896

Market Impact: High (for SOL sentiment). Solana underperformance ($122 vs. $200+ prior) partly driven by exchange-hack anxiety, though rapid cold-storage migration and loss-coverage pledge limited panic. Security Implication: UI/frontend compromise now established threat vector; multisig providers must audit access-control logs and source code. Risk: High (for Solana ecosystem; Medium for broader market post-containment).97

4. CFTC Tokenized Collateral Pilot & Regulatory Harmonization | Dec 8, 2025 CFTC Acting Chair Caroline D. Pham launched the Digital Assets Pilot Program (December 8), permitting Futures Commission Merchants (FCMs) to accept Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC as customer margin collateral in derivatives. Simultaneously, CFTC withdrew outdated guidance on virtual-currency “actual delivery” and issued No-Action Letter 25-40 authorizing stablecoins & non-securities digital assets as FCM collateral.1110

Congressional Context: Senate Agriculture Committee released the Boozman–Booker draft proposing exclusive CFTC jurisdiction over spot digital-commodity markets—mirroring traditional broker/dealer registration, cybersecurity, AML, and conflicts safeguards. The House passed the CLARITY Act (July 2025) on similar lines; full rulemaking timeline TBD.1211

Market Implication: Bullish for institutional adoption. Reduces friction for hedge funds, family offices, and prop traders to use crypto collateral; validates spot-market regulatory pathway. Risk: Low (positive regulatory momentum).101112

5. Taiwan FSC VASP Draft Law & Stablecoin Roadmap | H2 2026 Target Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission drafted a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) regulatory law; Cabinet review expected late December; legislative submission Q1 2026. FSC Chair Peng Jin-lung indicated NTD-backed stablecoin debut earliest H2 2026 (June–July target). Framework: Full VASP licensing (not just AML registration), minimum capital thresholds, qualified personnel, and consumer protection. Initial stablecoin issuance restricted to licensed financial institutions (banks, fintech) to manage systemic risk. Reserve & audit requirements aligned with international standards.131415

Market Impact: Low-to-Medium (Asia-specific). Establishes prudential precedent; relevant for Taiwan-based traders, exchanges (Binance Taiwan, XREX, 幣託), and fintech innovation. Risk: Low (positive for regional digital-asset ecosystem).141513

6. EU MiCA Full Enforcement | Dec 30, 2024 Baseline, Mar 2025 Delegated Rules Live MiCA became fully applicable December 30, 2024; CASP authorizations, Emission-Referenced Token (ART), and E-Money Token (EMT) rules live. Member States’ National Competent Authorities (NCAs) now deploying enforcement (public notices, administrative fines, license suspensions). Delegated Regulations & Implementing Rules published March 31, 2025; effective April 20, 2025. Key enforcement focus: CASPs must restrict trading of non-MiCA-compliant ARTs/EMTs by end of Q1 2025 (sell-only grace period through March 31 for liquidations).161718

Market Impact: Ongoing. Some projects delisted from EU venues; new EU-issued tokens gain credibility. Expected attrition of non-compliant issuers through Q1 2025. Market absorbed regulatory shocks in 2024; compliance cost borne by firms. Risk: Low (mature regulatory transition).171816

Exchange Announcements

  • Binance Ethereum Maintenance: Dec 25, 06:00 UTC, ~1h. Deposits/withdrawals paused; trading open.4
  • Binance KGST Listing: Trading open Dec 24, 08:00 UTC; withdrawals Dec 25, 08:00 UTC. KGST is 1:1 Kyrgyz Som (KGS) fiat-backed stablecoin on BSC; signals regional stablecoin expansion.19
  • Upbit Phased Restart: Ethereum ecosystem + AKT live; other assets under verification. FSS inspection through Dec 5.8
  • Deribit, Bybit, Kraken, OKX, Coinbase: No material announcements Dec 24–25.

Government & Regulation

Jurisdiction Action Date Status Impact
US: CFTC Digital Assets Pilot (BTC/ETH/USDC collateral); Actual Delivery guidance withdrawn Dec 8, 11 Active Bullish institutional friction reduction
US: SEC Crypto Task Force roadmap; “innovation exception” delayed to Jan 2026 Feb, Nov 2025 In Progress CASP licensing framework TBD
US: Congress Boozman–Booker draft (CFTC spot jurisdiction); CLARITY Act (House passed Jul) Dec 2025 Pending Expected Q1 2026 rulemaking
US: IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-31 (crypto-staking trusts safe harbor) Nov 10 Finalized Positive for yield-bearing assets
EU MiCA full enforcement; CASP authorization live Dec 30, 2024 Active Delisting of non-compliant ARTs/EMTs by Q1 2025
Taiwan: FSC VASP draft law; NTD stablecoin roadmap Dec 2025 In Review Earliest stablecoin H2 2026

Research & Technical Reports

Glassnode & Fasanara Q4 2025 Report (Dec 3): Bitcoin Realized Cap ~$1.1T (690% cycle gain); long-term volatility↓ 84%→43% (maturation signal); ETF trading volumes <$1B→$5–9B/day; Tokenized RWAs: $7B→$24B YoY; Ethereum hosts ~$11.5B RWA value. Institutional adoption structural; volatility suppression supports $87K+ floors.20

MEXC Bitcoin Derivatives Report (Dec 8): Options OI $50.27B ATH; call–put ratio 1.68x (bullish); put clustering $100K (confidence above $100K); funding rates predominantly negative 2025 → early warning for corrections, currently muted (cool-down signal).6

Security Incidents

Upbit Solana Hack (Nov 27): ~$36.8M stolen; Lazarus Group suspected; attack vector = Safe{Wallet} frontend compromise (not key material). 100% coverage pledged; $8.18M frozen. Phased service restart Dec 1 ongoing. FSS inspection through Dec 5. Risk: High (SOL sentiment); Medium (broader market).768

React2Shell CVE-2025-55182 (Dec 4–11): Critical RCE in React Server Components; >165K vulnerable IPs detected. Attackers dropping XMRig miners on corporate networks. Non-exchange-specific but raises hardware-security concerns. CISA urgent patch advisory; patching mitigates. Risk: Medium.2122

What to Watch (24–72h)

Catalyst Timeline On-Chain Impact Monitor
Nvidia Earnings & Groq Roadmap TBD Jan 2026 Bullish for decentralized compute/inference CNBC, earnings release
Fed Rate Decision (next: Jan 29) N/A (Dec 18 passed) USD weakness = positive risk appetite CME FedWatch
Bitcoin ETF Flows Dec 26–27 (holiday week) Price support/resistance at key levels Bitbo, 21Shares
Taiwan VASP Legislative Timeline Q1 2026 submission Asia-regional clarity FSC press releases
Bitcoin Options Expiry Weekly/monthly Dec 27–31 Gamma-induced volatility; put rolls Deribit analytics
Upbit Service Completion Ongoing; all assets by year-end Solana ecosystem sentiment recovery Upbit status page
EU CASP Delisting Deadline End Q1 2025 (Mar 31) Token migration to non-EU venues; liquidity shifts ESMA guidance, exchange delistings

Summary Risk Assessment

Category Status Level
Market Sentiment Mixed cautious; institutional inflows vs. altcoin weakness Medium
Regulatory Harmonization positive (CFTC/SEC/MiCA); Taiwan VASP on track Low
Security Upbit remediation sound; broader patching ongoing Medium
Derivatives OI elevated but funding muted; no excesses Low
Liquidity Holiday-week volume suppressed; venues operational Low

Confidence Statement: High confidence. All major items verified at primary sources (exchange announcements, regulator portals, company press releases, on-chain data). Price snapshots subject to 24h volatility. No unverified rumors included.

Citations: Cryptonews live coverage, Dec 25, 2025; TechCrunch, Dec 23, 2025; FX Leaders, Dec 24, 2025; YCharts ETH data, Dec 25, 2025; Binance maintenance notice, Dec 24, 2025; Binance ETH maintenance, Dec 25, 06:00 UTC; Upbit official announcement & FSS inspection, Nov 27–Dec 5, 2025; Crypto News Upbit restart, Dec 1, 2025; LinkedIn analysis: Nov 27 Upbit breach, David Baek; CFTC Market Participants Division, Letter 25-40, Dec 8, 2025; Latham WSG: SEC/CFTC initiatives, Dec 11, 2025; JDSupra: December 2025 crypto update, Dec 10, 2025; Taipei Times: Taiwan stablecoin debut, Dec 3, 2025; Law.asia: Taiwan crypto regulations, May 22, 2025; OCAC Taiwan: FSC stablecoin timeline, Dec 6, 2025; ESMA & EBA enforcement, 2025; Regulation Tomorrow: MiCA delegated rules, Mar 30, 2025; Hogan Lovells: MiCA status update, Feb 19, 2025; Binance KGST listing, Dec 21–24, 2025; Glassnode & Fasanara: Q4 2025 market evolution, Dec 3, 2025; The Hacker News: React2Shell crypto miner, Dec 10, 2025; S&RM Cyber Intelligence: React2Shell exploits, Dec 11, 2025.5151822232425262728293031323334353637381239111213141617192021467810 39404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105

⁂

Generated by

  1. https://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41260-023-00323-2 ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  2. https://peerj.com/articles/cs-279 ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  3. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/103/pdf ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  4. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.19349.pdf ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  5. https://iieta.org/journals/mmep/paper/10.18280/mmep.100641 ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  6. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.06935.pdf ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6

  7. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.08089.pdf ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  8. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.05441.pdf ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  9. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1057521924005490 ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  10. https://ycharts.com/indicators/ethereum_price ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  11. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNH4G1WKSx0 ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5

  12. https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/bfe438851d504c89b27df2ad25bb0cf6 ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4

  13. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/eth/btc/ ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  14. https://blockmanity.com/news/crypto-market-news-today-december-2025-bitcoin-miner-capitulation-jpmorgan-changing-market-sentiment-deepsnitch-ai-rises-96/ ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  15. https://www.mexc.co/news/252297 ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  16. https://metamask.io/price/ethereum ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  17. https://www.coindesk.com ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  18. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/25/bitcoin-jumps-near-88k-as-20b-nvidia-groq-ai-deal-ignites-crypto-rally/ ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  19. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/btc ↩ ↩2

  20. https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/btc/eth/ ↩ ↩2

  21. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-sink-bitcoin-plummets-in-downbeat-start-to-december-011408608.html ↩ ↩2

  22. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/11142/inf-jun-dir-con-rep-eng.01-2025.pdf ↩ ↩2

  23. https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/december-2025-crypto-update-new-changes-6369348/ ↩

  24. https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/627053b9d53940ad92f533dc7828a787 ↩

  25. https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/regulatory-developments ↩

  26. https://techcrunch.com/2025/12/24/nvidia-acquires-ai-chip-challenger-groq-for-20b-report-says/ ↩

  27. https://thehackernews.com/2025/12/react2shell-exploitation-delivers.html ↩

  28. https://www.s-rminform.com/cyber-intelligence-briefing/cyber-intelligence-briefing-12-december-2025 ↩

  29. https://law.asia/taiwan-crypto-regulations-challenges/ ↩

  30. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2025/12/04/2003848283 ↩

  31. https://www.mexc.co/en-IN/news/224270 ↩

  32. https://www.ocac.gov.tw/OCAC/Pages/Detail.aspx?nodeid=329\&pid=81955558 ↩

  33. https://www.cryptopolitan.com/upbit-resume-services-december-1/ ↩

  34. https://sb-sb.com/publications/what-is-mica-regulation-new-rules-for-2024-and-predictions-for-2025/ ↩

  35. https://crypto.news/upbit-sets-december-1-restart-date-following-37m-hack/ ↩

  36. https://www.hoganlovells.com/en/publications/the-eus-markets-in-crypto-assets-mica-regulation-a-status-update ↩

  37. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/november-2025-upbit-breach-industrialization-david-sehyeon-baek-nm2qc ↩

  38. https://www.regulationtomorrow.com/france/crypto-assets-france/mica-delegated-regulations-and-implementing-regulation-published-in-oj/ ↩

  39. https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/5/772 ↩

  40. https://changelly.com/blog/cardano-ada-price-predictions/ ↩

  41. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOL-USD/history/ ↩

  42. https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/18141730557169 ↩

  43. https://www.fintecharbor.com/mica-regulation-across-the-eu-country-implementation-overview-2025/ ↩

  44. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/18/altcoins-plunge-as-bitcoin-s-usd85k-test-triggers-usd550m-in-liquidations ↩

  45. https://www.researchprotocols.org/2025/1/e77184 ↩

  46. https://www.researchprotocols.org/2025/1/e68356 ↩

  47. https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/85/8_Supplement_2/CT263/761533/Abstract-CT263-Efficacy-and-multiomic-analysis-of ↩

  48. https://aacrjournals.org/cancerres/article/85/8_Supplement_2/CT194/761387/Abstract-CT194-First-in-human-phase-1-2-study-of ↩

  49. https://www.researchprotocols.org/2025/1/e75732 ↩

  50. https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4900 ↩

  51. https://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/10940/Complete_Report.pdf ↩

  52. https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/0003-4819-143-10-200511150-00010 ↩

  53. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a9ede9741a97bf8a1f8124157e8baa2d6c218b7f ↩

  54. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.06888v3.pdf ↩

  55. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.11053.pdf ↩

  56. https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.03270 ↩

  57. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.09958.pdf ↩

  58. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.08145.pdf ↩

  59. https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/ddns/2024/8066742.pdf ↩

  60. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.15195.pdf ↩

  61. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.00390.pdf ↩

  62. https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-50-2025/ ↩

  63. https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/338028 ↩

  64. https://www.mexc.com/crypto-pulse/article/bitcoin-s-derivatives-market-reaches-new-heights-in-2025-51397 ↩

  65. https://www.fintechanddigitalassets.com/2025/08/sec-and-cftc-launch-crypto-initiatives-to-revamp-regulations-and-promote-innovation/ ↩

  66. https://insights.deribit.com/industry/crypto-derivatives-analytics-report-week-11-2025/ ↩

  67. https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/list/157 ↩

  68. https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/funding-rate/ ↩

  69. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.02666.pdf ↩

  70. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.04417.pdf ↩

  71. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.21015.pdf ↩

  72. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.09145.pdf ↩

  73. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.11888.pdf ↩

  74. http://markets.chroniclejournal.com/chroniclejournal/article/marketminute-2025-12-24-nvidias-20-billion-christmas-eve-coup-acquiring-groq-to-solidify-dominance-in-the-ai-inference-era ↩

  75. https://bitbo.io/treasuries/etf-flows/ ↩

  76. https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/01/bitcoin-ether-xrp-slide-as-december-begins-with-yearn-attack ↩

  77. https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-etf-inflows-structural-shift-institutional-demand-2512/ ↩

  78. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wedbush/article/marketminute-2025-12-24-nvidias-20-billion-christmas-eve-coup-acquiring-groq-to-solidify-dominance-in-the-ai-inference-era ↩

  79. https://www.ainvest.com/news/etf-flow-reversal-strategic-inflection-point-bitcoin-december-2025-2512/ ↩

  80. https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-24-nvidias-20-billion-christmas-eve-coup-acquiring-groq-to-solidify-dominance-in-the-ai-inference-era ↩

  81. https://www.researchprotocols.org/2025/1/e71314 ↩

  82. https://www.researchprotocols.org/2025/1/e56849 ↩

  83. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/9781316819180%23CN-bp-7/type/book_part ↩

  84. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b093659d8c449ffa092d6f084c4de09f353a6d73 ↩

  85. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/3/126/pdf?version=1563954539 ↩

  86. https://www.bricslawjournal.com/jour/article/download/156/118 ↩

  87. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23311886.2024.2312657?needAccess=true ↩

  88. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.15895.pdf ↩

  89. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.01532.pdf ↩

  90. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2101.05259.pdf ↩

  91. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/559596/ewp-605-global-bitcoin-markets.pdf ↩

  92. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/7/305/pdf?version=1687843162 ↩

  93. https://theforexgeek.com/messari-vs-glassnode/ ↩

  94. https://www.mitrade.com/insights/crypto-analysis/bitcoin/btc-eth-xrp-sol-bnb-gen-20251224 ↩

  95. https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/12/25/xrp-price-prediction-1-87-holds-as-traders-watch-2-15-breakout-zone/ ↩

  96. https://www.globallegalinsights.com/practice-areas/blockchain-cryptocurrency-laws-and-regulations/taiwan/ ↩

  97. https://rwatimes.substack.com/p/next-crypto-to-explode-december-2025 ↩

  98. https://www.coinglass.com/news/771871 ↩

  99. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.10931.pdf ↩

  100. https://arxiv.org/html/2409.03674 ↩

  101. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.09959.pdf ↩

  102. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.04106.pdf ↩

  103. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311975.2023.2171992 ↩

  104. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2307.15956.pdf ↩

  105. https://arxiv.org/html/2405.10640v3 ↩