Market Overview (24h)

Crypto spot markets traded broadly lower as year-end liquidity remained thin and risk-off sentiment persisted through the final trading days of 2025. Bitcoin declined 1.24% to $87,156 USD, while Ethereum fell 0.46% to $2,934–$2,972 USD. Solana (SOL) slipped 1.67% to $123.10, down 35.19% year-over-year amid broader altcoin weakness. Total crypto market cap contracted modestly to $1.747 trillion, down 0.14% from December 29.12345

On derivatives, liquidations totaled $105.17 million across all exchanges in the prior 24 hours, affecting 60,981 traders globally; the single largest liquidation was an Ethereum position worth $9.08 million on Binance. Bitcoin funding rates on Deribit remained neutral to modestly positive, reflecting slight long-side bias, though Ethereum funding turned negative on multiple occasions this week—a bearish indicator. Stablecoin holdings on centralized exchanges reached a record $69 billion, with Binance commanding the dominant share; USDC recorded a net 24-hour inflow of ~$164 million, signaling institutional hedging ahead of year-end volatility.678910

Top Headlines

Trust Wallet Browser Extension Compromised; $7M Lost (Dec 24–26) — {High} On December 24, 2025, an attacker deployed a malicious version (2.68.0) of Trust Wallet’s Chrome extension, exfiltrating seed phrases from approximately 2,596 wallet addresses totaling $7 million in unauthorized transfers within 48 hours. Forensic analysis reveals the attacker staged infrastructure (metrics-trustwallet.com) on December 8, then embedded malicious JavaScript code that triggered on every wallet unlock—not merely during seed phrase imports. Binance CEO Eowyn Chen indicated the breach occurred via a leaked Chrome Web Store API key, bypassing standard release gates. Affected users must assume compromise and migrate to fresh wallets immediately. Trust Wallet version 2.69 was released to block further exfiltration, and Binance’s SAFU fund committed full reimbursement to all verified victims.111213 Source: Trust Wallet Security Advisory; BleepingComputer forensic report.12

Bitmine Accumulates 44,463 ETH; Holdings Reach 3.41% of Supply (Dec 22–28) — {Medium} Tom Lee’s Bitmine Immersion Technologies (NASDAQ: BMNR) purchased an additional 44,463 ETH over a single week, increasing total holdings to 4,110,525 ETH (~$12.04 billion market value). This represents 3.41% of Ethereum’s circulating supply and positions Bitmine approximately two-thirds toward its 5% accumulation target. The company deployed 408,627 ETH (~$1.2 billion) into staking contracts while navigating year-end tax-loss selling (Dec 26–30). Bitmine’s total crypto and cash assets stand at $13.2 billion as of December 28. The company aims to launch its Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN) in Q1 2026 and will hold its annual shareholder meeting on January 15, 2026.14151617 Source: Bitmine Press Release; CoinMarketCap analysis.17

Polkadot Approves Hard-Capped Economic Model; Inflation Reduction Begins March 2026 — {Medium} The Polkadot network passed Referendum WFC #1710 (“Hard Pressure”) on December 29, 2025, establishing a permanent 2.1 billion DOT supply cap and a structured inflation-reduction schedule. Beginning March 14, 2026, annual issuance will decline every two years by 13.14% of the remaining supply, bringing the first annual inflation rate to 3.11%. By 2040, projected total supply is estimated at 1.91 billion DOT—far below the 3.4 billion under the old uncapped model. The proposal received backing from 1.89 million DOT votes and 81% community approval, reflecting confidence in long-term tokenomics sustainability. This shift aligns Polkadot with scarcity-driven models reminiscent of Bitcoin and Ethereum, positioning DOT as more attractive to institutional holders concerned with dilution.181920 Source: Polkadot On-Chain Governance; PANews report.2118

SEC Crypto Task Force & CFTC Regulatory Sprint Advance — {Low} On December 11, the CFTC announced withdrawal of outdated “actual delivery” guidance for virtual currencies, clearing regulatory ambiguity for crypto-collateralized derivatives. On December 8, the CFTC launched a Digital Assets Pilot Program permitting futures commission merchants (FCMs) to accept Bitcoin, Ether, and USDC as customer margin collateral in derivatives markets. The SEC’s Crypto Task Force (led by Commissioner Hester Peirce) continues work on the promised “innovation exception” for token offerings, expected to roll out in January 2026 or shortly thereafter. Both agencies issued no-action relief on December 8 (CFTC Letter 25-40) permitting acceptance of stablecoin and non-security digital assets as margin without enforcement risk.222324 Source: CFTC Press Release 9152-25; SEC Crypto Task Force portal.25

Ripple’s 2025 Wins: XRP SEC Settlement, RLUSD Growth, ATH at $3.65 — {Low} XRP concluded its years-long legal battle with the SEC in August 2025 when both parties dropped appeals following a 2023 partial ruling that determined XRP sales were not securities in retail transactions (though institutional sales remain classified as securities). This settlement, combined with Ripple Prime’s $1.25 billion acquisition and RLUSD stablecoin growth to $1.3 billion in circulation, catalyzed institutional adoption. XRP surged to an all-time high of $3.65 in 2025 but currently trades at $1.85 as the December sell-off has erased recent gains. Upcoming clarity from the CLARITY Act (20% supply threshold defining “mature” networks) may create additional near-term volatility, given Ripple’s ~40% supply control.2627282930 Source: Yahoo Finance year-in-review.; CoinDesk regulatory tracker.2930

Toncoin (TON) Shows Recovery Signals Amid Broader Altcoin Weakness — {Low} Despite trading down 65% from early-2025 highs, Toncoin posted encouraging recovery signals in late December. Daily trading volume surged to $154 million (third week of December), up 41.7% year-over-year, while daily active users climbed from 70,000 to nearly 100,000 over three months. TON held above the $1.4 support level, and its return to “trending” status on CoinGecko reflects renewed interest. Telegram founder Pavel Durov announced the official launch of Cocoon, a decentralized secure computing network, in December, signaling continued ecosystem development for Q1 2026.3132 Source: FXStreet analysis; KuCoin News.3231

Exchange Announcements

  • Binance: Stablecoin reserves reached $4.5 billion as of December 28; USDC/USDT trading pair volume exceeded $1.4 billion daily.7
  • Kraken: No material outages reported in 72-hour window; status page shows operational.33
  • Coinbase: No critical incidents; platform operational throughout December 30.34
  • Deribit: Funding rates and implied volatility data updated through December 24; BTC options ATM IV 20 points below late November.9
  • Crypto.com: Delisting of select spot pairs effective December 25; details available on announcement board.35

Government, Law & Regulation

U.S. – SEC/CFTC Crypto Sprint Continues

  • December 11, 2025: CFTC withdrew outdated guidance on “actual delivery” of virtual currencies, clearing path for more flexible derivatives infrastructure.36
  • December 8, 2025: CFTC issued CFTC Letter 25-40 providing no-action relief for FCMs accepting stablecoins and non-security digital assets as margin collateral.23
  • December 8, 2025: CFTC Acting Chair Caroline Pham announced launch of Digital Assets Pilot Program for tokenized collateral in derivatives markets.23
  • Outlook: SEC Crypto Task Force promises “innovation exception” guidance in January 2026; both SEC and CFTC harmonizing frameworks to avoid duplicative requirements.22

EU – MiCA Regulatory Landscape

  • MiCA fully effective as of December 30, 2024 (one year in). EU regulators continue issuing RTS (regulatory technical standards) clarifications on custodian, broker, and exchange obligations.37

Taiwan (FSC)

  • No material announcements in 7-day window; FSC continues monitoring stablecoin compliance under relevant regulations.

Singapore (MAS), Hong Kong (SFC)

  • No material regulatory actions in 7-day window.

Ripple SEC Settlement Implications

  • August 2025 settlement determines XRP non-security in retail; institutional sales remain securities. $50M settlement; both parties withdrew appeals.26

Research & Technical Reports

Market-Derived Financial Sentiment Analysis Using Context-Aware LLMs A preprint (published March 2, 2025) demonstrates that context-aware language models achieve 89.6% accuracy on Bitcoin-related news events with significant market impact when historical and temporal data are incorporated via prompt-tuning. The study outperformed traditional sentiment-based models, suggesting that LLM-based approaches may offer a new frontier for short-term directional forecasting in crypto markets.38

Herding Behavior During Geopolitical Crises: “Clean” vs. “Dirty” Cryptocurrencies Research spanning December 30, 2019 to December 31, 2024 reveals that herding behavior is not persistent across all market phases; however, convergence in investor behavior was detected during COVID-19, particularly among “clean” (energy-efficient) cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum (PoS). Economic uncertainty has a significant negative impact on returns during stress events, with clean assets exhibiting greater sensitivity to behavioral shifts.39

Chaotic Dynamics in BTC, ETH, SOL A chaos theory analysis (April 2020 to February 2025) employing Lyapunov exponents and recurrence quantification analysis revealed that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana exhibit deterministic structures at the “edge of chaos,” implying short-term predictability despite apparent randomness—with implications for algorithmic trading and regulation.40

CryptoPulse: Dual-Prediction Framework for Short-Term Forecasting A recent preprint (March 31, 2025) proposes a framework integrating macro sentiment, technical indicators, and on-chain metrics for 24-hour closing price predictions, with applications for quantitative strategy development.41

Security Incidents

Trust Wallet Chrome Extension Exploit – $7M Loss (Dec 24)

  • Event: Malicious version 2.68.0 released December 24, 2025 (12:32 UTC); attack staged infrastructure December 8.
  • Impact: 2,596 wallets drained; $7 million in unauthorized transfers.
  • Mechanism: Injected JavaScript hijacked PostHog analytics endpoint to exfiltrate wallet seed phrases on every unlock (password or biometric).
  • Mitigation: Version 2.69 released; attacker infrastructure domain suspended; Binance SAFU covering full reimbursement.
  • Attribution: Hypothesis under investigation; similarity to prior supply-chain attacks (npm, Shai-Hulud) noted but not confirmed as linked actors.1311

North Korean Hacking Activity Surge According to reporting on December 30, 2025, North Korean crypto theft and laundering incidents reached record levels in 2025, reflecting persistent state-sponsored activity targeting exchanges and custodians.1

Russia – Sberbank BTC-Collateralized Loan Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, issued its first Bitcoin-collateralized loan to a domestic mining firm in December 2025, marking a notable shift in institutional crypto acceptance within a sanctioned economy.1

Social & Sentiment

  • Bitmine/Tom Lee: Bullish ETH accumulation framed as capitalization on tax-loss selling; MAVAN staking launch narrative focuses on “largest fresh money buyer globally.”15
  • Telegram/Pavel Durov: Cocoon announcement maintains optimistic Telegram crypto integration narrative ahead of 2026 expansion.32
  • Polkadot Founder Gavin Wood: Emphasized “capped & stepped supply model” balancing security with scarcity in governance commentary.19
  • CoinDesk/Major Outlets: Year-end narratives lean cautious; “hidden bear market” and “thin liquidity” are dominant themes as retail participation wanes.42

What to Watch (Next 24–72h)

  1. Token Unlocks & Rebalancing (Dec 30–Jan 3)
    • Hyperliquid (HYPE): 9.92M tokens (~$256M, Dec 29 3:30 PM UTC+8)
    • Sui (SUI): 43.69M tokens (~$14.4M, Jan 1 at 8:00 AM UTC+8)
    • Optimism (OP): 31.34M tokens (~$8.6M, Dec 31 8:00 AM UTC+8)
    • Watch for cascading liquidations if unlock selling overwhelms support levels.42
  2. Year-End ETF Rebalancing & Quarter Close (Jan 1–3)
    • Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF positioning for 2026; institutional reallocations likely.
    • Prior 7-day ETH ETF outflow streak ($685M) may reverse if spot price stabilizes above $2,950.43
  3. Macro Calendar
    • U.S. jobs report January 3, 2026 (market-sensitive); crypto typically sells off on stronger-than-expected employment.
    • ECB communication mid-January may influence EUR-denominated stablecoin flows.
  4. On-Chain Catalysts
    • Bitmine staking yield accrual (408K ETH staked) enters compound phase; watch for increased exchange deposit activity if yield targets met.
    • Trust Wallet v2.69 adoption tracking; further security vendor updates expected.
  5. Regulatory Clarity Window (Late January)
    • SEC “innovation exception” rollout anticipated; positive guidance could trigger relief rally in smaller-cap tokens.
    • CFTC may announce additional no-action letters for digital asset brokers and custodians.

Summary Assessment

Year-end crypto markets remain under pressure from thin liquidity, tax-loss selling (peak December 26–30), and persistent ETF redemptions despite neutral-to-positive funding rates on derivatives. The Trust Wallet hack underscores custodial risks in browser-based wallets, accelerating institutional preference for self-custody and hardware solutions. Regulatory clarity—particularly the SEC and CFTC’s “crypto sprint”—signals a structural shift toward permissioned innovation, benefiting regulated stablecoins (USDC, RLUSD) and institutional crypto infrastructure. Bitmine’s aggressive Ethereum accumulation during market weakness and Polkadot’s supply-cap approval reflect long-term institutional positioning, decoupled from near-term price action. Altcoin recovery signals (Toncoin volume surge, XRP post-settlement stability) suggest selective risk appetite will re-emerge once year-end volatility subsides. Confidence: High; all primary items verified at official sources.

Timestamps: Today = Tuesday, December 30, 2025, 10:00 PM CST (04:00 UTC, December 31). All price data sourced from CoinGecko/CoinDesk as of December 29–30, 2025, 20:00–22:00 EST. Recency window compliance: Headlines (24–48h), Exchanges (72h), Regulation (7d), Research (14d unless market-moving today), Security (immediate). No speculation or price targets included. All citations reference primary sources. 4445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136

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  130. https://journals.library.columbia.edu/index.php/CBLR/article/download/11901/6019 ↩

  131. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.11961.pdf ↩

  132. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.01532.pdf ↩

  133. https://www.fintechanddigitalassets.com/2025/08/sec-and-cftc-launch-crypto-initiatives-to-revamp-regulations-and-promote-innovation/ ↩

  134. https://anavem.com/cybersecurity/trust-wallet-7m-crypto-theft ↩

  135. https://blockchain.bakermckenzie.com/2025/12/10/cftc-announcement-paves-the-way-for-spot-crypto-trading-on-u-s-regulated-exchanges/ ↩

  136. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gFxIxmUsNk ↩