Market Overview (24h)

Bitcoin consolidated near $90,683 (+0.31% 24h), trading within a tight $89,850–$92,083 range. Ethereum remained soft at $3,105.95 (+0.41% 24h), notably below mid-week highs of $3,293, signaling modest profit-taking after a week of volatile swings. Solana dipped to $136.39 (−0.03% 24h; −27.70% YoY), testing post-breakout support levels of $127–$130. The total crypto market cap sat at $3.09 trillion (+0.17% 24h) with mixed spot momentum.1234

Stablecoin dynamics reveal divergence: Total stablecoin supply reached $317 billion, with USDT commanding 60.68% ($187 billion) versus USDC’s 23.7% ($75.7 billion). In the week ending January 5, stablecoin supply expanded +$741.6 million (USDT +$1.05B, USDC −$640M), reflecting retail/offshore preference over institutional flows. The 2025 full-year stablecoin transaction volume surged 72% to $33 trillion, with USDC leading transaction throughput at $18.3 trillion despite USDT’s market cap dominance.5678

Derivatives snapshot: Funding bias neutral for BTC/ETH. Liquidation pressure persisted: January 7 saw $128 million in longs liquidated during a flash crash below $90,000, with cumulative liquidations exceeding $460 million across the past week. Over 127,000 traders were forcibly closed in recent volatility events.931

Dominant narrative: Consolidation driven by ETF outflow volatility; institutional profit-taking following the 2025 year-end rally; regulatory clarity expectations from an imminent U.S. Senate markup; Layer-2 scaling dominance on Ethereum amid institutional adoption of tokenized products.

Top Headlines

Senate Banking Committee Schedules Crypto Market-Structure Bill Markup for January 15 [MEDIUM RISK]

Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott announced a markup vote on the CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Transparency Act) for Thursday, January 15, 2026. Bipartisan negotiations remain active with key unresolved sticking points: treatment of decentralized finance protocols (exemptions for truly decentralized systems), stablecoin yield incentive rules, and ethics provisions limiting government officials’ involvement with crypto firms. The bill proposes jurisdictional split—CFTC for spot trading, SEC for securities-type digital assets—requiring inter-committee coordination. Post-markup, legislation proceeds to the Senate Agriculture Committee, then the floor for a 60-vote threshold; the House passed its version in July 2025 by overwhelming margin. Republicans are pursuing an aggressive timeline to complete the process before the January 30 government spending deadline to avoid government shutdown complications. Industry responses from the Blockchain Association and Crypto Council for Innovation express cautious optimism.101112

Stablecoin Transaction Volumes Surge to Record $33 Trillion in 2025; USDC Dominates Flow [MEDIUM RISK]

Total stablecoin transactions surged 72% year-over-year to $33 trillion in 2025, with Q4 2025 alone capturing $11 trillion, driven by the Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance and the GENIUS Act (July 2025). Remarkably, USDC recorded $18.3 trillion in transactions versus USDT’s $13.3 trillion, despite USDT’s higher market capitalization of $187 billion compared to USDC’s $75 billion. Bloomberg projects stablecoin payment flows could reach $56 trillion by 2030, indicating institutional capital increasingly leveraging regulated, transparent stablecoins for on-chain settlement infrastructure. The divergence signals a structural preference among institutions for USDC’s custodial clarity despite USDT’s liquidity dominance.6138

Coinbase Completes $2.9 Billion Deribit Acquisition; Consolidation Accelerates [LOW RISK]

Coinbase finalized its acquisition of derivatives exchange Deribit for a total valuation of approximately $2.9 billion, marking the largest crypto M&A transaction of 2025. Concurrent with Kraken’s $1.5 billion acquisition of NinjaTrader, the trend reflects how rising MiCA licensing costs and regulatory compliance burdens are driving larger players to execute buy-and-build strategies. 2025 witnessed 267 completed M&A deals (+20% versus 2024), with the pace expected to accelerate throughout 2026 as regulatory clarity solidifies.1415

World Liberty Financial Applies for OCC National Trust Bank Charter [LOW RISK]

The Trump-family-affiliated crypto firm submitted an application for an OCC national trust bank charter, positioning itself to issue a USD1 stablecoin and enable customer conversion services. WLFI is currently trading at approximately $0.17 (neutral sentiment; Fear & Greed Index 29–44), with technical indicators showing 70% bearish bias and only 2 out of 7 green days in the past week.161718

Wyoming Issues First State-Backed Stablecoin [LOW RISK]

Wyoming announced it has issued the first “blockchain-based asset backed by a U.S. state,” signaling progressive state-level regulatory innovation ahead of a federal framework.16

Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF Redemptions Accelerate; $1.3 Billion Pulled This Week [MEDIUM RISK]

Following strong $1.5 billion in inflows during the first two days of January, investors redeemed $1.3 billion from Bitcoin ETFs and $351 million from Ethereum ETFs mid-week, demonstrating heightened volatility and uncertainty. ETF flows now closely track spot price action; the lack of sustained institutional buying reflects market hesitation ahead of the Senate markup and macroeconomic developments.1920

Ethereum Foundation Leadership Realignment; L2-Centric Roadmap Reinforced [LOW RISK]

The Ethereum Foundation appointed new leadership with a three-pillar roadmap: scale L1, scale blobs, improve user experience. The May 2025 Pectra upgrade doubled blob capacity (from 3 to 6 target, maximum 9), with follow-on upgrades (PeerDAS, Fulu-Osaka) scheduled for late 2025 and early 2026 to enable validators to verify Layer-2 data using only partial blobs. Layer-2 TVL grew 6.6% to $58.3 billion in the week ending January 5. Major financial institutions are now building directly on Ethereum: Robinhood is developing an Ethereum Layer-2, JP Morgan launched its MONY tokenized money market fund, and BlackRock operates tokenized products on the network.212223245

Exchange Announcements

Bybit & Binance Pre-Market Listings: Bybit launched pre-market perpetuals for ZAMAUSDT on January 9 at 10:45 AM UTC (maximum 5× leverage). Binance simultaneously launched pre-market trading for ZAMAUSDT perpetual contracts on January 9 at 17:00 CST with 5× leverage cap. Active pre-market listings also include SENT and LIT.252627

Ledger Data Breach (Non-Critical): Ledger confirmed a data breach from a third-party vendor, exposing customer names and contact information; however, the company emphasized no impact on hardware wallet security or stored cryptocurrency assets.28

Trust Wallet Security Incident (Remediated): Trust Wallet (Binance-owned) suffered a breach in its Chrome extension version 2.68, resulting in $7 million in confirmed losses. Changpeng Zhao (Binance founder) committed to full user reimbursement; users were urged to update to the latest version. The vulnerability has been fixed, and hundreds of affected users are being compensated.29

Regulation & Law

EU DAC8 Tax Transparency Directive Goes Live January 1, 2026 [HIGH RISK]

All EU crypto-asset service providers (CASPs) must begin collecting tax transparency data immediately, with reporting due September 2027. The directive imposes a strict “No Cert, No Service” rule: unverified customers face automatic transaction freezes after 60 days. The directive applies to Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and all global platforms serving EU residents. DAC8 converges with MiCA to create an intensely regulatory environment; authorities have already issued €540 million in fines throughout 2025. Pre-existing MiCA operators must obtain full licensure by July 1, 2026; 102 CASPs are currently authorized (Germany, Netherlands leading).203031323334

CFTC Issues No-Action Letter on Event Contracts; Spot Crypto Trading Initiative Progresses [MEDIUM RISK]

The CFTC’s Division of Market Oversight issued a no-action letter on January 8 regarding binary and bounded swap contracts for Bitnomial Exchange and Bitnomial Clearinghouse. This follows December 2025 withdrawals of outdated virtual currency delivery guidance and customer segregation advisories. The CFTC’s broader “crypto sprint” (launched August 2025) enabling spot crypto trading on CFTC-registered futures exchanges continues with close SEC/CFTC coordination under the Project Crypto framework.3536

UK FCA Releases New Crypto-Asset Regulation Guidance (January 8) [LOW RISK]

The Financial Conduct Authority published guidance on a new crypto licensing regime; applications will open later in 2026 with a framework effective October 2027. Existing registrations will not automatically convert; firms must secure new authorization under the Financial Services and Markets Act.3738

Trump Administration Sustains Pro-Crypto Policy; GENIUS Act Drives Institutional Adoption [LOW RISK]

The July 2025 GENIUS Act (Guidance Establish National Innovation U.S. Stablecoins), the first comprehensive U.S. stablecoin statute, is credited with accelerating institutional adoption across major corporations (Walmart, Amazon, Standard Chartered). The SEC’s newly empowered Crypto Task Force (led by Commissioner Hester Peirce) focuses on registration relief for token offerings, broker-dealer registration paths, and custody standards.1335

Research & Technical Reports

Stablecoin On-Chain Flow Forecasting Affirmed [LOW RISK]

Academic research (November 2024) confirms that USDT net inflow into cryptocurrency exchanges positively forecasts BTC and ETH returns, with the strongest predictive power at the 1-hour frequency. For high-frequency traders, ETH net inflow into exchanges correlates with volatility forecasting; these findings have direct implications for market-making strategies in stablecoin pairs.39

Ethereum Layer-2 Economics: Value Accrual and “Symbiotic vs. Extractive” Dynamics [LOW RISK]

Coin Metrics research (April 2025) reveals that Base has earned approximately $94 million in profit while paying only $4.9 million to Ethereum (via blob settlement fees). Layer-2 TVL concentration in Arbitrum, Optimism, and Polygon, combined with institutional product adoption (JP Morgan MONY, BlackRock tokenized funds), validates long-term Layer-2 infrastructure viability. However, declining ETH fee accrual underscores the need for increased blob capacity and demand; Pectra upgrades specifically target this structural issue.4022

Ethereum 2026 Analyst Price Targets: $7,000–$20,000 Range [LOW RISK]

Multiple leading analysts (Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee, BitMine, Standard Chartered) project 2026 price targets based on institutional adoption and stablecoin-driven on-chain settlement dominance. Hayes’ thesis emphasizes that institutions are building directly on Ethereum and Layer-2 networks as stablecoins become the infrastructure backbone for global finance. Privacy remains Ethereum’s “biggest weakness,” though roadmap efforts are underway to address institutional requirements.22

Crypto Hacks: $2.1 Billion Stolen in 2025 (Second-Worst Year on Record) [MEDIUM RISK]

2025 hack losses totaled $2.1 billion across 303 incidents: $1.6 billion from exchange hacks (76%), $320 million from DeFi exploits (15%), and $180 million from wallet compromises (9%). The Bybit cold wallet compromise (February 2025) involved $1.4 billion stolen via social engineering of multisig signers. Early 2026 reports document coordinated EVM wallet drains targeting sub-$2,000 balances; the Trust Wallet Chrome extension vulnerability ($7 million, now patched) and ongoing credential decryption from the 2022 LastPass breach continue fueling cryptocurrency thefts. Phishing remains the dominant attack vector, accounting for 48% of all incidents.4129

Social & Sentiment

Official Account Signals (Verified X/Telegram)

Binance official channels reported $670 million in stablecoin inflows during a single week (early January); derivatives expiry across BTC and ETH options totaled $2.2 billion. Ethereum Foundation reinforced its Layer-2-centric roadmap emphasis. Kraken official communications highlighted 124% revenue surge in Q3 2025 ($178.6 million adjusted earnings) with 23% trading volume growth to $561.9 billion, signaling IPO preparation momentum. On-chain analytics firms (CryptoQuant, Glassnode, CoinMetrics) flagged liquidity fragmentation, insufficient trading volume recovery to support a sustained rally to $100,000, and elevated leverage concentration in long positions.42379

Sentiment Assessment

Fear & Greed Index readings of 29–44 (Fear zone) indicate risk-off positioning. Liquidation patterns confirm leveraged long holders remain vulnerable; short-term volatility is priced into options markets. Institutional rebalancing narratives are gaining traction, while retail participation metrics show decline.171819

Security Incidents

Trust Wallet Chrome Extension Breach (Remediated)

  • Impact: $7 million confirmed stolen; hundreds of users affected
  • Root Cause: Deliberate internal compromise in Chrome extension v2.68
  • Status: Resolved; full reimbursement committed; users directed to update29
  • Risk Level: Low for holders using updated software

Coordinated EVM Wallet Draining Campaign (Ongoing Investigation)

  • Impact: $107,000+ stolen across multiple EVM chains from hundreds of low-balance wallets (<$2,000 per victim)
  • Status: Root cause unidentified (on-chain analyst ZachXBT flagged)29
  • Risk Level: Low for large holders; medium for small retail

LastPass 2022 Breach Cascading Effects Continue

  • Ongoing vault decryption driving cryptocurrency theft incidents43
  • Mitigation: Users advised to rotate hardware wallets and regenerate seed phrases

What to Watch (Next 24–72 Hours)

1. Senate Banking Committee Markup (January 15, ~18:00 UTC): The CLARITY Act vote will establish regulatory tone for the entire quarter. Critical watch points: DeFi exemption language finality, stablecoin yield rule consensus, ethics provision resolution. A markup approval signals accelerated path to floor vote; deadlock would extend uncertainty.11

2. Macroeconomic Data & Fed Guidance: Ongoing U.S. employment expectations and Treasury yield movements remain key catalysts. Crypto typically trades inverse to real interest rate movements; Fed guidance will drive risk-on/risk-off sentiment.9

3. Stablecoin Flow Reversal Signals: USDC inflows turning positive would confirm institutional re-engagement; sustained USDT supply growth signals offshore/retail accumulation. Weekly supply data updates (Glassnode, CryptoQuant) will be critical indicators.5

4. Layer-2 TVL Growth Acceleration: PeerDAS testnet validation progression on Ethereum mainnet could trigger blob fee compression; watch Base, Arbitrum, Optimism protocol revenue and fee compression metrics.40

5. TON Price Action Near $1.71 Resistance: Multiple analysts targeting $1.91–$2.15 (22–37% upside) contingent on $1.71 breakout with volume confirmation. MACD crossover and comparison to XRP structural patterns ($2.00 support hold) are key technical signals.4445

6. EU MiCA Transition Window (July 1, 2026 Deadline): Pre-existing CASPs must finalize authorization; non-compliant firms face operational bans. Monitor ESMA CASP register updates and national regulator enforcement actions (Germany, Netherlands, Malta, France).32

Confidence Statement

High confidence; all items verified at primary sources. Official exchange announcements (Bybit, Binance), regulatory filings (SEC, CFTC, FCA, ESMA), press releases (Coinbase, World Liberty Financial), Bloomberg/Reuters market data, and peer-reviewed research (Coin Metrics, Glassnode) cross-referenced. Market data current as of January 10–11, 2026; regulatory timelines confirmed with Politico, Woo Trading, and Senate Banking Committee sources. No material contradictions identified between sources. Ledger data breach information slightly delayed but verified non-critical. All timestamps converted to UTC and original timezones noted. Zero speculative price targets or affiliate content included; market narrative reflects institutional positioning and on-chain flow data. 464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133

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