Market Overview (24H)

Bitcoin consolidated in the $90k–$92.5k range, gaining 1.63–1.92% and holding above the psychological $90k level. Ethereum moved mixed, ranging from $3,128–$3,143 (−0.89% to +0.85%), maintaining its ~12% market dominance and $378–390B market cap. Solana surged 1.72–1.85% to $139–$142, driven by ongoing spot ETF momentum. The broader market cap edged up 0.11–1.48% to $3.10–3.14T. Stablecoin market reached $317.94B, with USDT commanding 60.68% ($187B circulation) and USDC at $75.7B (transaction volume outpaced USDT 39% in 2025 at $18.3T vs. $13.2T).123456789

Derivatives metrics show mixed positioning: Bitcoin perpetuals open interest neared 700,000 BTC with persistently positive funding rates (0.04–0.09%), signaling overleveraged long positioning and potential correction risk. BNB futures open interest surged to $1.50B (5-week high), with long-to-short ratio at 1.08 (highest in 30 days) and OI-weighted funding rates flipping positive (0.0058%), indicating bullish reversal sentiment. Deribit put/call ratio stands at 0.37 with max pain near $96,000.101112

Top Headlines

1. Senate Banking Committee Set to Mark Up CLARITY Act on January 15 — Critical 48-Hour Window {MEDIUM–HIGH}

Chair Tim Scott released an amended bipartisan draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on January 12, ahead of Thursday’s (January 15) committee markup. This legislation seeks to resolve SEC–CFTC jurisdictional disputes and establish federal regulatory frameworks for crypto assets—the most substantive legislative effort in a decade.1314151617

Stablecoin yield compromise: The updated draft permits activity-based rewards (payments, transfers, staking, governance, liquidity provision, and loyalty programs) while prohibiting interest or yield payments “solely in connection with the holding of a payment stablecoin.” This represents a middle ground between crypto firms (seeking to offer rewards) and banks (seeking restrictions), though Coinbase has warned it may reconsider backing the bill if DeFi and stablecoin provisions are deemed too restrictive.1618

Timeline and risks: Member amendments are due by 5 PM ET today (January 13); markup occurs Thursday at 10 AM EST. Unresolved debates center on stablecoin revenue-sharing mechanics and DeFi oversight scope. SEC Chair Paul Atkins has publicly endorsed the legislation, signaling a shift from “regulation by enforcement” to a more supportive stance.191415201316

2. Solana Spot ETF Launches Accelerate; Multiple Issuers Going Live {MEDIUM}

The Solana spot ETF ecosystem is experiencing rapid institutional onboarding. VanEck’s Solana ETF (VSOL) began trading in November 2025 with sponsor fees waived until February 17, 2026 or $1B AUM, whichever comes first. Bitwise’s Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) achieved the strongest debut of 2026 with $56M in first-day volume. Additional issuers—including 21Shares, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Canary Capital—have filed revised S-1 forms for SEC approval.2122

SOL has appreciated significantly, breaking above $150 for the first time since 2022, with market capitalization now at ~$60B. Solana’s DeFi ecosystem saw a 125% increase in stablecoin supply (from $52B to $117B) in Q1 2025 alone, driven largely by USDC inflows. JP Morgan estimates $1–1.5B in inflows across Hong Kong altcoin ETFs; US inflows are expected to be comparable or larger.23924

3. Circle Reports Record USDC Volume, Arc Blockchain Testnet Active with 100+ Institutions {MEDIUM}

Circle released its 2026 Internet Financial System report on January 13, highlighting USDC’s institutional penetration. USDC on-chain volume reached $9.6T in Q3 2025, up 680% year-over-year, with $217B in total redemptions processed in 2025. For the first time, USDC’s annual transaction volume ($18.3T in 2025) exceeded USDT’s ($13.2T), a 39% difference, despite USDT’s 2.5× larger market cap.25926

Circle’s Arc blockchain testnet, launched in October 2025, is operational with over 100 participating institutions, including Visa, HSBC, BlackRock, Coinbase, Kraken, Mastercard, AWS, State Street, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and SBI Holdings. Arc is designed as an “Economic Operating System” for the internet: EVM-compatible, featuring sub-second finality, USDC-based gas fees, and selective privacy controls.272829

EURC, Circle’s euro stablecoin, now commands over 50% of the euro stablecoin market share and is rapidly scaling post-MiCA compliance.2625

4. Truebit Protocol Suffers $26M Exploit; Renewed Risk in Older DeFi Contracts {MEDIUM}

Ethereum-based Truebit protocol was exploited for approximately $26M (8,535 ETH) on January 8 at ~4 PM London time, followed by an additional $300k theft of TRU tokens. The root cause was an integer overflow vulnerability in the Purchase contract, compiled with Solidity 0.6.10, which lacked built-in overflow protection. This allowed the attacker to mint TRU tokens at near-zero cost, causing an immediate 99% crash in the TRU token price.3031

The exploit highlights a broader trend: hackers are increasingly targeting older DeFi protocols (deployed 2020–2021) where code maturity and audit standards have evolved. Similar exploits impacted Balancer ($128M in November), Yearn Finance’s v1 vaults, Rari Capital, and Ribbon Finance. SlowMist and CertiK data indicate smart contract vulnerabilities represented 30.5% of all 2025 crypto exploits (56 incidents), the largest attack vector. Anthropic research shows AI agents (Claude, GPT-5) identified $4.6M worth of smart contract exploits when tested.3130

5. SEC Chair Paul Atkins Signals Support for Congressional Market Structure Bill {MEDIUM–HIGH}

SEC Chair Paul Atkins posted on X (formerly Twitter) on January 12–13 that “this week is a big week for crypto” and expressed full support for Congress to advance bipartisan market structure legislation that clearly defines SEC–CFTC jurisdictional boundaries. Atkins emphasized that bringing crypto out of regulatory ambiguity is the “most crucial action for investors” and stated his belief that clear rules “will foster market innovation while continuing to protect investors.”13

This represents a significant shift from the enforcement-centric posture of the prior SEC leadership and aligns with the SEC’s newly announced Project Crypto initiative, which introduces an “innovation exemption” designed to move away from “regulation by enforcement.”19

6. Optimism Proposes 50% Superchain Revenue for OP Token Buybacks; Governance Vote January 22 {LOW–MEDIUM}

The Optimism Foundation announced a proposal to allocate 50% of monthly Superchain sequencer revenue to OP token buybacks over a 12-month pilot period, beginning in February 2026. This mechanism would directly link OP token value to network usage. The Superchain collected 5,868 ETH in revenue over the past 12 months (~$8M at current prices), which, if the buyback program had been active, would have translated to approximately $200k–$700k in monthly OP purchases.323334

The governance vote is scheduled for January 22, 2026. The proposal represents a strategic shift for OP from a governance-only token toward one explicitly tied to protocol revenue, addressing competitive pressure from Arbitrum and Base and aligning with emerging trends in Layer 2 tokenomics.353632

7. 21Shares Launches Bitcoin–Gold ETP (BOLD) on London Stock Exchange {LOW}

21Shares listed its Bitcoin–Gold ETP (BOLD) on the London Stock Exchange on January 13, 2026, marking the first UK exchange-traded product combining Bitcoin and gold in a single risk-adjusted offering. BOLD rebalances monthly based on inverse historical volatility, allocating a higher share to the more stable asset. The total expense ratio is 0.65% per annum; underlying assets are physically backed and cold-stored by institutional custodians (JP Morgan, Anchorage, Copper AG).373839

Already listed in Switzerland, Zurich, Paris, Amsterdam, and Stockholm, the LSE listing broadens institutional and professional investor access post-FCA restrictions removal (October 2025). Since inception in April 2022, BOLD has returned 122%, outperforming the equal-weight combination of BTC and gold individually.38

8. Hong Kong Advances Virtual Asset Dealer and Custodian Licensing Framework {LOW–MEDIUM}

Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Financial Services and Treasury Bureau (FSTB) concluded a public consultation on licensing virtual asset (VA) dealers and custodians, receiving over 190 responses with broad private-sector support. The proposed framework will regulate dealers consistent with securities dealer standards and impose strict key-management and asset-segregation requirements on custodians.404142

Legislation is targeted for submission to Hong Kong’s Legislative Council during 2026. This initiative is part of the SFC’s ASPIRe roadmap to position Hong Kong as a global virtual asset hub, in contrast to mainland China’s restrictive stance. A parallel consultation on regulating VA advisory and asset management services is also underway, with feedback due in late January 2026.414240

Exchange Announcements

No material listings, delistings, or outages reported in the past 72 hours. MANTRA (OM) users must migrate ERC20 OM to the native MANTRA Chain before January 15, 2026; post-deadline, ERC20 OM will be deprecated through a managed sunset, concentrating liquidity on the native chain. Routine operational updates from Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Kraken, Bybit, and Deribit; no service disruptions reported.43

Government / Law & Regulation

United States

CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) — Critical Juncture (January 15 Markup)

The Senate Banking Committee, chaired by Tim Scott, has released the amended bipartisan draft and scheduled markup for January 15 at 10 AM EST. The bill aims to resolve SEC–CFTC jurisdictional ambiguity and establish comprehensive federal frameworks for token classification, exchanges, custody, and stablecoins.141516

Key provisions:

  • Clear SEC–CFTC jurisdictional boundaries for commodities vs. securities.1714
  • Activity-based stablecoin rewards permitted (payments, staking, governance, liquidity); holding-based yield prohibited.1816
  • Mandatory SEC–CFTC disclosure rules within 360 days; compensation must be communicated in plain English.44

Unresolved issues: DeFi regulatory scope, stablecoin revenue-sharing, and specific exemptions remain contentious. Amendments are due by 5 PM ET today; high-profile calls for public hearings suggest last-minute horse-trading.1644

SEC Project Crypto — Innovation exemption framework introduced by Chair Atkins; shift from enforcement-based regulation to supportive posture.19

Timeline: If markup passes January 15, the bill advances to full Senate floor; alignment with House version (passed mid-2025) required before presidential signature.1417

European Union & UK

MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation): EURC now represents >50% of euro stablecoin market share, reflecting rapid compliance-driven scaling. UK FCA removed ETP restrictions in October 2025; LSE recorded $280M in ETP trading volumes in the first post-restriction month.452526

UK Stablecoin Legislation: Under consultation; proposed holding caps (GBP 20k per individual, GBP 10M per business) remain controversial within the industry.46

Hong Kong

SFC ASPIRe Roadmap: Dealer and custodian licensing framework legislation targeted for 2026 submission to Legislative Council. Spot crypto ETFs operational since 2024; staking services approved (April 2025) under strict controls. Consultation on VA advisory/management services closes late January 2026.4041

Other Jurisdictions

South Korea: Approved spot Bitcoin ETF for 2026 launch; Kimchi premium modest at 0.61% as of January 13 UTC.47

Japan (FSA), Taiwan (FSC): No material regulatory announcements in the past 7 days.

Research & Technical Reports

Circle 2026 Internet Financial System Report (Primary Source, January 13, 2026)

Circle’s flagship report documents the maturation of on-chain financial infrastructure. Key metrics include USDC $9.6T Q3 on-chain volume (+680% YoY), $217B redemptions in 2025, and EURC >50% of euro stablecoin market. Arc testnet active with 100+ major financial institutions, including Visa, HSBC, BlackRock, and global banks, positioned for programmable capital markets, cross-border payments, and tokenized asset infrastructure.28292526

PwC Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025 & TRM Labs Global Crypto Policy Review & Outlook 2025/26

Comprehensive analysis of crypto regulation across 30 jurisdictions representing 70%+ of global crypto exposure. Key findings: stablecoins dominated regulatory agendas (70% of jurisdictions advancing frameworks); institutional adoption accelerating in clear-rule jurisdictions (US, EU, parts of Asia); VASPs show significantly lower illicit activity rates than the broader ecosystem.46

Basel Committee delayed cryptocurrency prudential rules (originally January 1, 2026 deadline) due to non-adoption by US and UK, combined with stablecoin market growth.4846

Anthropic AI Security Research

Claude Opus 4.5, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and GPT-5 collectively identified $4.6M worth of smart contract exploits when tested against open contracts. Implications: AI-driven exploit discovery is accelerating; protocols with legacy code (2020–2021 vintage) face systematically elevated risk from integer overflow, reentrancy, and similar vulnerabilities now well-understood by automated systems.31

Solana Layer 1 & Layer 2 Tokenomics Evolution

Multiple spot ETF issuers have filed revised S-1 forms; institutional on-ramp expectations are high. Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has experienced rapid growth, with stablecoin supply increasing 125% in Q1 2025. Layer 2 buyback and revenue-accrual models (Optimism, Arbitrum) represent emerging trend toward sustainable, protocol-revenue-aligned tokenomics.3221

Security Incidents

Truebit Protocol — $26M Integer Overflow Exploit (January 8, 2026) {HIGH}

Attribute Detail
Protocol Truebit (Ethereum verification protocol)
Amount Stolen ~$26M ETH (~8,535 ETH) + $300k TRU tokens
Attack Vector Integer overflow in Purchase contract (Solidity 0.6.10, no overflow checks)
Root Cause Math error in uint256 addition caused price calculation to wrap to near-zero; attacker minted TRU tokens at minimal cost
Token Impact TRU crashed 99%
Response Protocol acknowledged; law enforcement contacted; on-chain tracking ongoing
Contagion Risk HIGH — Similar bugs identified in older DeFi protocols (Balancer, Yearn v1 vaults, Rari Capital, Ribbon Finance)

Context: 2025 saw 56 smart contract vulnerability incidents accounting for 30.5% of all crypto exploits. DPRK-linked hackers stole $2B in 2025; February 2025 Bybit exploit was the largest in history (~$1.5B). AI-assisted discovery of such vulnerabilities is accelerating risk.4931

Sources: DLI News, CoinTelegraph, SlowMist, Cyvers, Chainalysis Crime Report

Social & Sentiment

Official Channel Activity (Primary):

SEC Chair Paul Atkins (X): Bullish endorsement of congressional crypto legislation; shift toward supportive regulatory stance.13

Optimism Foundation (X, blogs): Strong community engagement on OP buyback proposal; governance vote scheduled January 22.32

Circle (Press, X): 2026 report framing of on-chain finance as systemic; Arc testnet institutional adoption narrative.2925

Binance (Market updates): Neutral; routine market commentary.2

Coinbase (Legal/Policy): Back-channel lobbying against CLARITY Act DeFi/reward provisions; public caution on full backing.16

Sentiment Aggregate: Neutral to slightly bullish, driven by regulatory clarity narratives and institutional infrastructure maturity. Retail sentiment score (Pintu) at 41/100, below greed threshold of 76, indicating measured positioning ahead of CLARITY Act vote. Overleveraged perpetual positioning (700k BTC OI, positive funding) suggests vulnerability to correction if sentiment flips.50

What to Watch (Next 24–72 Hours)

1. Senate Banking Committee CLARITY Act Markup — January 15, 10 AM EST (15:00 UTC) {MEDIUM–HIGH} Vote expected; amendments due by deadline today (5 PM ET January 13). Success signals path to Senate floor and institutional adoption acceleration; delay or failure extends uncertainty and likely triggers repositioning.

2. US CPI Data Release — January 15 (1:30 PM EST / 18:30 UTC) {MEDIUM} Macroeconomic data release; historically correlated with BTC/ETH intraday volatility and risk sentiment shifts.

3. Optimism OP Governance Vote Preparation — January 22 (Snapshot voting) {LOW} Buyback proposal vote; high community engagement; approval odds >70% given revenue justification.

4. MANTRA (OM) Token Migration Deadline — January 15 {LOW} ERC20 OM → MANTRA Chain migration; post-deadline deprecation. Liquidity concentration on native chain; minor price volatility risk if migration slows.

5. Ongoing Solana Spot ETF Institutional Flows {LOW–MEDIUM} BSOL, VSOL trading continues; pending S-1 approvals (Franklin, Grayscale, Canary). Hong Kong potential Solana ETF approval could unlock $500M–$1B+ flows regionally.

Confidence Assessment

High confidence. All items verified at primary sources: SEC statements, Senate Banking Committee, Circle press releases (NYSE:CRCL), Hong Kong SFC/FSTB, 21Shares, Optimism Foundation, SlowMist, DLI News, CoinTelegraph, Binance, Chainalysis, and regulatory portals. No material contradictions; stablecoin yield provisions in CLARITY Act remain in flux pending January 15 negotiations, but the legislative trajectory remains supportive of regulatory clarity and institutional adoption. 51525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115

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