Daily Crypto Market Brief - ETF Inflows Fuel BTC Near 70k, ETH Roadmap Boost
Market Overview (24h)
- Global crypto market cap is in the ~2.3–2.4T range; CoinGecko shows 2.36T (+0.18% 24h), while CoinCodex reports a move from 2.27T to 2.35T (+3.44%) as of March 3 06:00 UTC, highlighting data-source dispersion. Risk: Medium (ETF- and macro-driven beta).12
- BTC trades around 68k: CoinCodex shows 67,953 (+1.86% 24h, March 3 06:00 UTC), while Phemex reports 68,445 (+3.25% 24h) at 02:34 UTC. ETH is near 2,000–2,030 (1,992 on CoinCodex, +1.07%; YCharts shows 2,029.44, +4.7% vs prior day at midnight UTC). Risk: Medium.342
- Watchlist / large‑cap alts: SOL 86.69 (+3.70% d/d, midnight UTC); BNB 637.49 (+3.35%); XRP 1.393 (+3.14%); DOGE 0.0936 (+1.84%). AVAX is stronger at 27.16 (+8.8% 24h), while Toncoin is around 3.39 (+2.3% 24h) on CoinGecko. Risk: Medium (catch‑up beta in high‑beta L1s).5678910
- Derivatives: Coinglass data (via WEEX) shows BTC’s 8‑hour average funding rate at about −0.0008% across major venues (Binance −0.0011%, OKX −0.0008%, Bybit +0.0026%, Gate −0.0016%), indicating slightly short‑tilted but balanced perp positioning. ETH perp open interest is up 5.81% in 24h to about 26.1B notional, with Binance ~5.48B, OKX ~1.59B, Bybit ~2.12B, etc. Risk: Medium (room for squeeze if spot continues higher).11
- Recent liquidation context: funding was deeply negative (around −6%) and >500M in positions were liquidated in late February as BTC dipped near 63k on geopolitical headlines, but that episode has since normalized. Risk: Medium.12
- Stablecoins: total stablecoin cap is broadly above 300B, with eMarketer citing ~308.6B as of January 2026, more than double January 2023. Tether’s USDT has ~183.6B cap and ~109B 24h volume, while analysts note USDT supply slipped ~1% over 30 days as USDC and PYUSD supplies grew 7.4% and 16.7% respectively, amid rotation toward more strictly regulated issuers. Risk: Low–Medium (structural shift but no acute depeg stress).131415
Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)
- US spot BTC ETFs log ~962M USD net inflow on March 2, led by IBIT. Multiple trackers report US spot BTC ETFs saw about 962.5M in net inflows yesterday, with BlackRock’s IBIT taking ~767.5M, Fidelity’s FBTC ~94.8M, and Bitwise’s BITB ~36.4M, with smaller positive flows into HODL, EZBC, BTCO, and ARKB. This reverses late‑February outflows and reinforces the ETF‑flow narrative behind BTC’s push back toward 70k. Risk: High (flows are currently the main marginal driver for BTC).161718
- Ethereum Foundation publishes official “L1 Strawmap” roadmap site. EF Architecture has launched strawmap.org as a living draft of Ethereum’s L1 roadmap through roughly 2029, organized around seven expected hard forks and five “north stars”: fast L1 finality (seconds), ~10,000 TPS “gigagas” L1 via zkEVMs, “teragas” L2 scaling, post‑quantum security, and native privacy (shielded ETH transfers). Justin Drake and Vitalik Buterin have amplified the plan on X, including proposals to gradually cut slot times from 12s toward 2s using a square‑root‑of‑two schedule. Risk: Medium–High (shapes multi‑year ETH thesis, L2 and MEV design).1920212223
- Coinbase’s 2026 Crypto Market Outlook doubles down on institutionalization and “DAT 2.0”. Coinbase’s official 2026 Crypto Market Outlook frames 2026 as an inflection where clearer regulation and accelerating institutional integration push crypto from speculation toward core financial infrastructure. The report highlights “DAT 2.0” (data‑availability and blockspace markets), the dominance of perps in market structure, and stablecoins/payment rails as key secular drivers rather than meme‑narrative cycles. Risk: Medium (supports longer‑horizon institutional flows and infra valuations).24252627
- February hacks hit multi‑year low even as a few high‑profile DeFi exploits persist. CertiK‑based data cited by Yahoo shows only about 35.7M stolen in February 2026 (down over 90% year‑on‑year), with 12 recorded incidents led by a ~10.9M oracle manipulation on Stellar’s YieldBlox Blend pool, a ~9M IoTeX bridge key compromise (see Security section), and a ~2.2M exploit of privacy protocol Foom.Cash. Risk: Medium (headline risk from individual exploits, but macro security trend improving).28
- Macro/Geopolitics: BTC resilience amid war headlines. KuCoin and other outlets note that BTC has regained ground toward 68–70k despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and prior funding stress, with some analysts characterizing March as historically positive for BTC and ETH returns. Risk: Medium (macro or escalation could quickly flip risk sentiment).42930
Exchanges
- Binance: BNB Smart Chain (BEP‑20) wallet maintenance. Binance performed BNB Smart Chain wallet maintenance at 06:00 UTC on March 2, pausing BEP‑20 deposits/withdrawals from 05:55 UTC (initial notice referenced UTC; Binance TH separately scheduled 12:55–13:00 UTC+7 downtime for the regional platform). Trading of BEP‑20 tokens was unaffected. Risk: Low (standard infra maintenance; short‑term liquidity/jump‑risk on‑chain only).3132
- OKX: New pre‑market perps and maintenance. OKX introduced USDT‑margined pre‑market perpetual futures for KAT (Katana) at 11:30 UTC on March 2, part of a broader cadence of new perpetual listings (ROBO, OPN, selected stocks, etc.) in late February. OKX also recently announced wallet maintenance for Solana, TRON, IOTA, SUI, and TON networks on February 26, potentially impacting L1/L2 deposit/withdraw flows during the window. Risk: Low–Medium (affects liquidity for smaller names and some L1 bridges).333435
- Bybit: Product microstructure tweaks effective March 2. Bybit scheduled pre‑market perpetuals for KATUSDT at 08:00 UTC on March 2 and tick‑size adjustments for selected spot pairs at 10:00 UTC the same day, alongside changes to funding‑rate intervals for certain perps starting 02:00 UTC. These changes marginally impact execution quality, quote granularity, and carry costs for high‑frequency or basis strategies. Risk: Low–Medium (microstructure impact for active traders).363738
Regulation/Law
- US stablecoin “Clarity Act” misses March 1 White House deadline. Reporting indicates the White House’s March 1 deadline for a bipartisan stablecoin deal has lapsed without agreement, as banks and crypto firms clash over who can pay yield on stablecoins and how those products should be supervised. Negotiations now point to Senate Banking markup in mid‑to‑late March and another soft deadline around July before election‑year gridlock; absent a deal, regulators may lean more heavily on enforcement and guidance (SEC/OCC) to police yield‑bearing stablecoin products. Risk: High (directly affects USDC/USDT competitive landscape, bank‑token projects, and ETF‑like yield wrappers).39
- SEC Crypto Task Force continues to solicit technical input, including ZK privacy models. The SEC’s Crypto Task Force “written input” page shows recent March 1 submissions specific to “programmable privacy & tiered disclosure with ZKPs,” arguing for regulator‑auditable privacy layers using zero‑knowledge proofs. While not yet policy, it signals active consideration of ZK‑based compliance architectures rather than pure surveillance or bans. Risk: Medium (shapes feasibility of privacy‑preserving DeFi and exchange designs in the US).40
Research/White Papers
- Ethereum L1 Strawmap (EF Architecture, March 2 2026). The official strawmap.org site lays out a work‑in‑progress but concrete visual roadmap for consensus, data, and execution‑layer upgrades through 2029, assuming roughly seven forks and five long‑term targets: sub‑second/seconds‑level finality, ~10k TPS L1, ~10M TPS L2 via data‑availability sampling, post‑quantum cryptography, and native privacy. This becomes the main reference for L1‑oriented ETH valuation and for L2 builders aligning roadmaps. Risk: High (core to ETH’s technical and economic trajectory).202119
- Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report (Feb 13 2026). Chainalysis’ latest crime report finds roughly 3.4B stolen in 2025, with North Korean actors responsible for ~2.02B and a shift toward larger centralized‑service compromises and personal wallet attacks even as DeFi hack losses stay suppressed relative to 2020–22, despite TVL recovery. It emphasizes faster, multi‑phase laundering patterns (DeFi → mixers → CEX) and highlights improved incident response in some protocols (e.g., Venus example with full recovery). Risk: Medium (affects insurance pricing, compliance, and regulator posture).414243
- Coinbase 2026 Crypto Market Outlook (institutional research). Coinbase’s institutional research desk argues that 2026 will look more like “1996 than 1999,” with structural growth driven by derivatives‑dominant market structure, prediction markets, and stablecoins as payment rails, under a gradually clearer regulatory regime. It expects token economics to shift toward cash‑flow‑backed models (fee‑share, buyback/burn) and highlights ZKP/FHE‑based privacy as a prerequisite for deeper institutional adoption. Risk: Medium (influences institutional positioning and sector tilts).25262724
Security Incidents
- IoTeX bridge exploit (~4–8M loss) via compromised validator key. On February 21 (07:00–09:00 UTC window), IoTeX’s ioTube cross‑chain bridge suffered a private‑key compromise allowing an attacker to seize control of Ethereum‑side TokenSafe and MinterPool contracts, drain vault assets (USDC, USDT, IOTX, WBTC, BUSD, etc.), and mint additional CIOTX and CCS tokens; estimates of realized loss range from about 4.3M to over 8M as analysts factor in over‑minted tokens. IoTeX paused bridge operations, coordinated with exchanges to freeze deposits, and temporarily halted main‑chain activity while hardening key management; investigations suggest overlap with a prior 49M exploit on another stablecoin platform. Risk: High (bridge risk; cross‑chain collateral and any IoTeX‑linked DeFi positions).444546
- Step Finance (Solana) winds down after 26M treasury hack. Step Finance, once branded the “front page of Solana,” announced on February 23 that it will cease all operations—including affiliated SolanaFloor and Remora Markets—after failing to secure financing or acquisition options following a January 31 treasury‑wallet compromise estimated around 26M. The team is working on STEP token buybacks (snapshot‑based) and redemptions for Remora rTokens, but the shutdown underscores how one large treasury hack can be terminal for infra‑heavy DeFi projects even when core chains (Solana) remain healthy. Risk: Medium–High (Solana DeFi reputational risk; concentrated protocol‑treasury exposures).4748
- Macro security context: DeFi exploits lower, but bridge/oracle risks remain focal. February’s security summary (CertiK/Yahoo) shows only ~35.7M lost across 12 incidents (oracle manipulation, bridge bugs, cryptographic edge cases, phishing), with IoTeX, YieldBlox Blend (~10.86M oracle attack on Stellar), and Foom.Cash (~2.2M) among the largest. Analysts highlight a shift from rampant protocol‑TVL rug‑pulls toward key‑management failures, oracle design flaws, and personal‑wallet compromises. Risk: Medium (tail risk persists, but systemic DeFi‑TVL drain risk currently subdued).495028
What to Watch (next 24–72h)
- Follow‑through on BTC ETF inflows. Monitor whether strong net inflows into IBIT, FBTC, BITB, HODL, EZBC, BTCO, and ARKB persist after the ~962M surge on March 2; sustained multi‑day inflows would support BTC grinding toward/through 70k, while a quick reversal would argue for a local top. Risk: High.511718
- BTC technical levels around 68–70k and funding normalization. BTC was rejected near the 70,000 psychological level with a visible upper wick, and Phemex flags 68,472 as a key pivot; watch the daily close relative to ~68,500 (bullish) and ~67,800 (bearish) and whether average funding remains mildly negative (contrarian bullish) or flips positive. Risk: Medium–High.411
- ETH and L2 response to Strawmap. Track upcoming EF communications, client‑team calls, and EIP discussions as the strawmap filters into concrete fork agendas (e.g., Glamsterdam, Hegota), and see how L2 tokens and restaking/MEV projects trade relative to ETH as the market re‑prices execution‑layer and data‑availability evolution. Risk: Medium–High.52211920
- Regulatory calendar: US stablecoin talks and SEC messaging. In the wake of the Clarity Act delay, expect comments from Senate Banking leadership, Treasury, and agencies (SEC/OCC/Fed) on interim expectations for yield‑bearing stablecoins; also watch further outputs from the SEC Crypto Task Force, especially around ZK‑based disclosure and custody standards. Risk: High.4039
- Bridge and oracle security posture post‑IoTeX and YieldBlox. Over the next week, monitor IoTeX’s chain/bridge‑reopening schedule, any recovery announcements, and audits or parameter changes from other bridge and oracle‑heavy protocols, especially those re‑using similar components. Risk: Medium–High.50464428
High confidence; key items cross‑checked against multiple primary and reputable secondary sources.
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https://coingeek.com/circle-2025-ended-on-a-high-but-can-they-keep-it-up-in-2026/ ↩
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https://www.circle.com/pressroom/from-stablecoins-to-infrastructure-circle-charts-the-rise-of-the-internet-financial-system-in-2026-report ↩
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https://metamask.io/price/tether ↩
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https://www.circle.com/blog-all ↩
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https://www.bitcoinsuisse.com/industry-blog/meta-stablecoins-ethereum-strawmap-sideways-compression ↩
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https://www.mexc.com/news/739394 ↩
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https://m.thewire.in/article/ptiprnews/next-crypto-to-explode-in-february-2026-deepsnitch-ai-shows-2000-potential-tao-and-wld-follow ↩
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https://www.dlnews.com/articles/defi/matcha-meta-users-lose-millions-after-security-breach-at-integrated-protocol/ ↩
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/defi-protocol-crosscurve-smart-contract-052041676.html ↩
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https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/01/curve-finances-62m-exploit-exposes-larger-issues-for-defi-ecosystem/ ↩
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http://visnyk-pravo.uzhnu.edu.ua/article/view/312294 ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.10583.pdf ↩
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https://pure.uva.nl/ws/files/59744640/1023263x20911538.pdf ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/2674-1032/2/3/31/pdf?version=1692245424 ↩
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https://aclanthology.org/2023.nllp-1.14.pdf ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/3/126/pdf?version=1563954539 ↩
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http://arxiv.org/pdf/2407.01532.pdf ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.09676.pdf ↩
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https://www.centralbank.ie/regulation/markets-in-crypto-assets-regulation ↩
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https://www.gibsondunn.com/hong-kong-sfc-and-hkma-release-supplemental-guidance-on-virtual-asset-related-activities/ ↩
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https://www.globallegalinsights.com/practice-areas/blockchain-cryptocurrency-laws-and-regulations/taiwan/ ↩
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https://www.regulationtomorrow.com/2026/01/esma-publishes-official-translations-of-the-guidelines-for-the-criteria-on-the-assessment-of-knowledge-and-competence-under-mica/ ↩
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https://apps.sfc.hk/edistributionWeb/api/circular/list-content/circular/intermediaries/supervision/doc?lang=EN ↩
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https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202512030008 ↩
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https://www.esma.europa.eu/esmas-activities/digital-finance-and-innovation/markets-crypto-assets-regulation-mica ↩
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https://www.elliptic.co/blog/implications-of-taiwans-guiding-principles-for-the-crypto-industry ↩
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https://www.esma.europa.eu/sites/default/files/2026-01/ESMA35-24871704-2922_Guidelines_for_the_criteria_on_the_assessment_of_knowledge_and_competence_under_MiCA.pdf ↩
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https://www.fstb.gov.hk/fsb/en/publication/consult/doc/VAdealing_consultation_conclusion_e.pdf ↩
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https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/taiwan-plans-2026-stablecoin-launch-as-virtual-assets-legislation-advances ↩
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https://www.lw.com/en/markets-in-crypto-assets-regulation-tracker/mica-all-texts ↩
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https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmgsites/cn/pdf/en/2026/02/unlocking-liquidity.pdf.coredownload.inline.pdf ↩
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https://practiceguides.chambers.com/practice-guides/banking-regulation-2026/taiwan ↩
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https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c191ed32e20ed29cc0954d2e269243d3c9838465 ↩
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https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5147fb9c63027db9fe2c1728b989f6eae1e51549 ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/103/pdf ↩
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https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23311975.2023.2171992 ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/7/2/203/pdf?version=1677137361 ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/2075-1680/11/9/448/pdf?version=1663754699 ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.01379.pdf ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.08189.pdf ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/1099-4300/25/5/777 ↩
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https://www.tradingview.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/global-charts/ ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/btc ↩
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https://coinmarketcap.com ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/api3 ↩
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https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/tom-lee-predicts-march-market-rally-with-btc-and-eth-leading ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/2026-token ↩
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https://coinmarketcap.com/best-cryptos/ ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/three ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.19349.pdf ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1906.00564.pdf ↩
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https://peerj.com/articles/cs-2675 ↩
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http://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.04106.pdf ↩
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http://eudl.eu/pdf/10.4108/eai.10-3-2022.173608 ↩
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https://arxiv.org/html/2409.03674 ↩
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https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/5/1/10/pdf?version=1674981847 ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.01926.pdf ↩
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https://www.cryptometer.io ↩
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https://blog.tapbit.com/usdc-supply-drops-6-5-billion-in-january-2026-liquidity-crunch-explained-market-impact/ ↩
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https://www.blockchain.com/explorer/prices ↩
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/fadhil-adhwa_sharp-rise-in-unique-stablecoin-interacting-activity-7426474435626541057-gHPG ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges/ourbit ↩
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https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/BITCOIN ↩
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https://www.coingecko.com/en/compare-cryptocurrencies ↩
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https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate ↩
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https://www.linkedin.com/posts/coinchange_outlook-2026-activity-7429213490659160064-Cp5a ↩
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https://bitinfocharts.com/cryptocurrency-prices/ ↩
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https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate/BTC ↩
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https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/bf196ff07c17597bef823d5620f1cd54a0e339c4 ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.07132.pdf ↩
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https://arxiv.org/pdf/2309.03006.pdf ↩
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https://www.bybit.com/en/price/solana/ ↩
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https://metamask.io/price/binancecoin ↩
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https://www.bybit.com/en/price/ripple/ ↩
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https://metamask.io/price/solana ↩
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https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BNB-USD/history/ ↩