Conditional Probability

“At Least One Boy” vs “You See a Boy”

These two statements sound similar, but they condition on information in different ways. That changes the sample space — and the answer.

Part A: “At Least One Son”

We are told a fact about the family: at least one child is a boy.

BB
Boy – Boy
Conditional weight
1
BG
Boy – Girl
Conditional weight
1
GB
Girl – Boy
Conditional weight
1
GG
Girl – Girl
Conditional weight
0

Why?

The original four equally likely families are BB, BG, GB, and GG. The condition “at least one is a boy” removes only GG, leaving three equally likely possibilities: BB, BG, and GB.

Answer
1/3
≈ 33.3%
Part A formula P(both are boys | at least one is a boy) = 1 / 3

Key insight

In Part A, conditioning works like a filter: eliminate impossible cases, then treat the remaining valid families equally.

Part A · Condition on a fact

“At least one child is a boy” removes the family GG and keeps the rest equally likely.

BB ✓ BG ✓ GB ✓ GG

So the answer is 1 out of 3.

Part B · Condition on an observation

“You see a boy” does not just filter — it weights families by how likely they are to produce that observation.

BB
weight 1
BG
weight 1/2
GB
weight 1/2
GG
weight 0

Total weight = 2, and BB contributes 1 of those 2.