Birthday Line — Best Position

You want enough people ahead of you to create many possible birthday matches, but not so many that someone else is likely to have already won.

Best position
#20
Maximum win probability
3.232%

To win at position k, the first k−1 people must all have different birthdays, and then your birthday must match one of theirs.

Exact probability at position 20
P(20) = P(first 19 distinct) × 19/365
3.23199%
260
Why moving later helps at first

At position 20, there are 19 earlier birthdays you could match. More people ahead means more possible matching birthdays.

Why moving too late hurts

Every extra person ahead also creates another chance that a duplicate birthday appears before your turn, ending the game before you can win.

The clean comparison

Let P(k) be your chance of winning from position k. Comparing adjacent positions:

P(k+1) / P(k) = [k/(k−1)] × [(366−k)/365]

Moving one spot later helps exactly when k² − k − 365 < 0. The positive root is about 19.61, so the probability rises through position 20 and falls after that.

Optimal choice: position #20