Market Overview (24h)

Spot Prices & Market Cap (as of 22 Nov, 14:40 UTC)

Bitcoin trades near $83,683 (+1.69% in session recovery), having bounced from a monthly low of $82,000. Year-to-date returns are now negative 5.2%, with November marking a $1.15 trillion wipeout from early October peaks. Ethereum is at ~$2,725 (+0.51% on the day), down 29.4% month-over-month and 44.6% from its all-time high of $4,946. Solana sits ~$126.17–$126.74 (–0.20% to –1.12%), down 33% in November and 49% from its September local peak near $293.1234

Top alts show mixed moves: XRP $1.91 (–0.81%); BNB $816 (–1.04%); DOGE $0.1368 (–2.51%); ADA $0.398 (–2.43%). Total crypto market cap: $2.85–$2.98 trillion, down 8.66% in the last 24h. Of the top 100 coins, 99 declined in the last day; only Zcash gained (+1.8%).561

Derivatives & Liquidations

Funding rates remain heavily negative (fear-driven shorts unwinding). On 21 Nov, liquidations peaked around 390,000 traders, with BTC realized losses surging to highest levels since the FTX collapse in Nov 2022—signaling capitulation among over-leveraged longs. Open interest in SOL futures remains elevated above $6 billion, indicating residual leverage despite downside.25

Stablecoin Flows

USDC reached an all-time high of $76 billion in circulation on 21 Nov, up 78% year-over-year and a dramatic reversal of flight-to-safety patterns. Circle minted an additional $250 million USDC on Solana this month (in tranches of $750M, $250M, $250M), bringing total USDC supply on Solana to 8.74 billion and commanding 63% of all stablecoins on the network. USDT dominance index (USDT.D) surged above 6%, breaking a descending trendline held since 2022—a historically bearish signal often preceding extended corrections. USDT flows showed neutral positioning; both major stablecoins hoarded on centralized exchanges amid market uncertainty.789

Top Headlines

1. Bitcoin ETF Inflows Turn Positive After Week-Long Rout; $238M Net Inflows on 21 Nov ⚠️ {Medium} After six consecutive days of massive outflows (peaking at $903 million on 20 Nov—the second-worst dump in ETF history), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a decisive $238 million net inflow on 21 Nov, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading at $108 million and Grayscale’s BTC mini-trust contributing $84.93 million. BlackRock’s IBIT posted record trading volume of $8 billion in turnover that day but ended with $122 million in net outflows, while GBTC saw $45 million outflow. The weighted average purchase price for ETF inflows stands at $91,725, leaving most holders underwater. Broader context: ETFs have seen $3.5 billion in net outflows for November despite $60 billion inflows year-to-date. Analyst commentary frames this as “tactical rebalancing” rather than institutional exit.61011

Sources: Bitget (21 Nov); Bloomberg/SoSoValue (21 Nov); Binance Market Update (22 Nov)101156

2. Aerodrome Finance (Base DEX) Suffers DNS Hijacking; >$1M Drained, Smart Contracts Safe 🔴 {High} On 22 Nov (~06:00 UTC, 22 Nov in Asia/Singapore), Aerodrome Finance—the leading DEX on the Base network—detected a DNS hijacking incident compromising its centralized domains (.finance and .box), enabling attackers to execute phishing attacks siphoning ETH, USDC, NFTs via unlimited approval prompts. Over $1 million was stolen in under one hour. The team confirmed all smart contracts remain secure; only the frontend was compromised. Aerodrome immediately disabled access to main URLs and set up two decentralized mirrors (aero.drome.eth.limo and aero.drome.eth.link) hosted on ENS infrastructure. Sister protocol Velodrome Finance reported a parallel attack, suggesting systematic targeting of Box Domains infrastructure. One affected developer reported recovering ~10–20% of funds via on-chain stealth operations using Jito bundles over three days.1213

Security Alert: Users are advised to avoid all Aerodrome centralized domains and use only ENS-hosted mirrors until full domain recovery.

Sources: TradingView/Aerodrome official (22 Nov 03:03 UTC); Yahoo Finance (22 Nov)1312

3. SEC Project Crypto Advances: Token Taxonomy & “Regulation Crypto” Proposal on Horizon for 2026 ⚠️ {Medium} On 12 Nov, SEC Chair Paul Atkins outlined the next phase of Project Crypto during remarks at an undisclosed industry event, signaling formal rulemaking incoming for 2026. Key initiatives include: (a) a formal token taxonomy clarifying asset classification (securities, stablecoins, digital commodities, collectibles); (b) refined Howey framework application for crypto offerings; (c) a forthcoming “Regulation Crypto” proposal with tailored disclosures, exemptions, and safe harbors for token sales, airdrops, and network rewards. The SEC and CFTC are advancing regulatory harmonization, with Joint Staff Statement issued 2 Sept 2025 clarifying that SEC/CFTC-registered exchanges are not prohibited from facilitating spot crypto asset trading—a significant green light for innovation. Proposed innovations include allowing tokens tied to investment contracts to trade on non-SEC platforms (CFTC-registered or state-regulated). The SEC Division of Corporate Finance has already released five guidance statements on crypto securities compliance; formal rule proposals are expected by late 2025 or early 2026.14

Sources: Sidley Austin Legal Update (16 Nov); SEC-CFTC Joint Statement (2 Sept 2025); Parker Poe (17 Nov)151614

4. ICIJ Investigation: Binance, OKX, Coinbase Linked to Dirty Money Flows; $700K+ Sinaloa Cartel Funds Traced 🔴 {High} On 18 Nov, the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) released findings showing tens of thousands of cryptocurrency transactions routed through major exchanges. Key exposures: (a) Binance-hosted address attributed by U.S. Treasury to Sinaloa drug cartel money launderer received >$700K from Coinbase accounts; (b) OKX processed funds from notorious Chinese fentanyl trafficking rings; (c) HTX (formerly Huobi) hosted accounts linked to Russian cryptojacking for North Korea weapons programs. Between 2019–2021, Khadzhi Magomedov (Smart group) moved ~$40 million directly to/from Binance, with $8 million+ via WhiteBIT. No immediate regulatory action announced, but investigation reinforces ongoing SEC/FinCEN scrutiny of exchange AML controls.17

Sources: ICIJ (18 Nov)17

5. Taiwan FSC Enforces Strict Crypto AML Rules; 26 Licensed Providers Must Register or Face Up to 2 Years Jail ⚠️ {Medium} Taiwan’s Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC) is implementing strict anti-money laundering (AML) regulations for virtual asset service providers (VASPs) effective 30 Nov 2025—moved forward one month from the original 1 Jan 2025 deadline. All 26 licensed crypto providers in Taiwan, whether previously registered or not, must comply. Requirements include monitoring customer names, bank accounts, IP locations, transaction patterns, and flagging suspicious activities (frequent account info changes, fund-splitting, same-IP multi-accounts). Non-compliance penalties: fines up to NT$5 million (~$153,700 USD) and up to 2 years imprisonment. The FSC has also issued a compliance checklist. Earlier in Nov, the regulator fined local exchanges MaiCoin and BitoPro NT$1.5 million each for AML violations.18

Sources: Crypto Potato (24 Nov 2024 reporting; current deadline Nov 30)18

6. Hong Kong SFC Eases Crypto Regulations: Global Order Books & Fast-Track Product Listings (2 Nov) ⚠️ {Low–Medium} On 2 Nov, Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission released two circulars liberalizing crypto rules as part of its ASPIRe roadmap:

  • First circular: SFC-licensed exchanges may share order books with affiliated overseas platforms (requires prior written SFC approval), enabling access to global liquidity with better price discovery.
  • Second circular: Operators can now list digital assets without the mandatory 12-month track record for professional investors; also cleared to offer HKMA-licensed stablecoins, tokenized securities, and crypto investment products.

SFC CEO Julia Leung stated the moves aim to “connect with global liquidity” while balancing innovation and investor protection. Hong Kong is explicitly competing with lighter-touch jurisdictions amid intensifying global crypto competition, particularly post-Trump administration pro-crypto stance.192021

Sources: SFC circulars (2 Nov); The Block (2 Nov)2021

7. Circle Mints $250M USDC on Solana; Total USDC Supply on SOL Reaches 8.74B, Commanding 63% Stablecoin Share ✅ {Low} In a strategic move to bolster Solana’s DeFi liquidity amid market carnage, Circle minted an additional $250 million USDC on Solana this month (prior tranches: $750M, $250M), bringing total Solana USDC to 8.74 billion and raising USDC’s dominance of Solana stablecoins to 63%. The aggressive deployment signals institutional confidence in Solana’s durability and positioning for the next altcoin rally cycle. USDC lifetime transaction volume has exceeded $20 trillion, with $1 trillion transacted in November alone.8

Sources: ABC Money (20 Nov)8

8. November Crypto Hack Losses Hit Lowest Point of 2025 at $18.18M; October 85.7% Below September ✅ {Low} According to blockchain security firm PeckShield, October 2025 recorded the lowest monthly hack losses of 2025 at $18.18 million across 15 incidents—an 85.7% drop from September’s $127.06 million. Notable October exploits included: Alpenglow Finance (>$10M; solver compromised), Typus Finance (oracle manipulation, ~$3M), Abracadabra (3rd exploit, ~$1M). The decline contrasts sharply with earlier 2025 volatility.12

Sources: Yahoo Finance/PeckShield (22 Nov)12

Exchange Announcements

Binance:

  • No material outage or listing changes reported in the 72-hour window. Market update (22 Nov, 14:40 UTC) shows normal operations; order book remains liquid across major pairs.5

Coinbase:

  • SEC approval: Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF listed on NYSE Arca, broadening institutional spot crypto exposure beyond BTC/ETH.6

Kraken, OKX, Bybit, Deribit:

  • No material announcements in the past 72 hours. Operations normal.

CME:

  • Bitcoin and Ethereum futures trading volume elevated on 20–21 Nov amid volatility; open interest remains robust, signaling institutional hedging activity.

Government / Law & Regulation

1. SEC/CFTC Regulatory Harmonization & Project Crypto Timeline (US)

  • SEC Chair Atkins (12 Nov remarks) outlined formal rulemaking on token taxonomy and “Regulation Crypto” proposal for 2026.
  • Joint SEC-CFTC staff statement (2 Sept 2025) cleared spot crypto trading on registered exchanges; further guidance expected by late 2025.
  • U.S. Senate draft bill (Boozman-Booker, mid-Nov) proposes placing crypto “primarily under CFTC oversight,” aligning with harmonization efforts.15

2. Taiwan FSC AML Enforcement (Taiwan)

  • Effective 30 Nov 2025: all 26 licensed VASPs must register or face criminal penalties (up to 2 years, NT$5M fines).18

3. Hong Kong SFC ASPIRe Roadmap Progress (Hong Kong)

  • Two new circulars (2 Nov) approved global order-book sharing and fast-track product listings, positioning HK as a competitive crypto hub.211920

4. EU / MiCA (EU)

  • No material updates in the past 7 days; MiCA framework remains in effect; broader FSB warnings on “gaps in international crypto rules” flagged in Nov (per PwC Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025).22

5. UK FCA, MAS (Singapore), SFC/HKMA (Hong Kong), FSA (Japan)

  • No material announcements in the past 7 days specific to the current brief window.

Research & Technical Reports

1. Messari “Crypto Theses 2025” — Industry Framework (Recent) Messari released its annual “Crypto Theses 2025” report offering comprehensive market predictions and sector analysis for 2025, including tokenization, RWAs, and layer-2 adoption trends. Full report available via Messari (recent publication, exact date not specified in available excerpts).23

2. CryptoPulse — Dual-Prediction Short-Term Forecasting Model (March 2025 preprint) ArXiv preprint 2502.19349 introduces a machine-learning model combining macroeconomic indicators, technical signals, and cross-correlated crypto price data to forecast 1-day ahead closing prices. Authors document residual volatility challenges but show promise for intraday trading strategies.24

3. PwC Global Crypto Regulation Report 2025 PwC’s comprehensive survey (published Jan 2025, still current as framework reference) maps global regulatory status across jurisdictions, highlights FSB calls for action on multifunction crypto intermediaries (MCIs), tokenization monitoring, and cross-border data sharing. Key finding: 27% of surveyed jurisdictions remain undecided on VASP regulation; FATF Travel Rule implementation remains fragmented globally.22

4. Kaiko/Glassnode On-Chain Analytics (Weekly Updates) No major research drops this week, though Glassnode and Kaiko continue publishing daily market microstructure analysis. Latest posts highlight ETH/BTC ratio resilience despite macro pressure and oversold RSI conditions.25

Security Incidents

1. Aerodrome Finance (Base) — DNS Hijacking; >$1M Stolen (22 Nov, ~06:00 UTC)

  • Affected: Aerodrome (.finance and .box domains) and Velodrome Finance (sister protocol).
  • Attack Vector: DNS infrastructure compromise at provider Box Domains; phishing signatures → unlimited token approvals.
  • Assets Lost: >$1 million in under 1 hour; ETH, USDC, NFTs drained.
  • Mitigation: Safe decentralized mirrors (aero.drome.eth.limo, aero.drome.eth.link) deployed; smart contracts confirmed secure.
  • Status: Ongoing investigation; domains remain compromised. ⚠️ Users should avoid centralized domains entirely.

2. Cross-Chain Bridge Vulnerabilities (Historical Context) XChainWatcher (October 2024 arxiv preprint) documented $611M + $190M in bridge losses and identified 81,000+ anomalous cross-chain transactions; remediation ongoing across Nomad, other bridges.26

What to Watch (Next 24–72 Hours)

  1. Federal Reserve Policy Signal (Expected Today/Tomorrow, Weekend Window): Fed funds futures now pricing in 71.3% probability of December rate cut (up from 40% two days prior per statements by NY Fed President Williams on 21 Nov). Crypto markets highly correlated with risk-off sentiment; a dovish pivot could reignite inflows.6
  2. Bitcoin Liquidation Floor Test: BTC resistance at $86,000–$93,000; demand zone below $74,500–$83,800 could see renewed capitulation if broken. Watch for flush-out liquidity or bounce-back institutional buying.125
  3. Ethereum Fusaka Hard Fork (Scheduled 3 Dec 2025): Ethereum developers approved gas limit increase to 60 million for the Fusaka upgrade launching 3 Dec, signaling network scaling ambitions. Historically bullish catalyst for L1/L2 narratives.27
  4. Solana Protocol Upgrades (Firedancer, Alpenglow Q1 2026): Solana’s validator client Firedancer now running ~7% of network; Alpenglow consensus upgrade targeting H1 2026. Watch for developer interest catalyzing fresh SOL inflows if Solana DeFi TVL stabilizes (currently ~$8.7B, down 3% on day).28227
  5. Stablecoin Flow Indicators: Monitor USDT.D and USDC supply dynamics; historically, stablecoin dominance above 6–8% flags market bottoms and reversals within 2–4 weeks.9
  6. Bitcoin Spot ETF Weekly Flows (Reporting Sunday/Monday): Track cumulative weekly inflows/outflows; sustained positive inflows >$100M/day may signal institutional accumulation at discount.1110
  7. Taiwan FSC Compliance Deadline (30 Nov): Crypto providers must finalize AML registration; non-compliance enforcement begins 1 Dec; potential minor delisting/account freezes if firms miss deadline.18

Confidence & Caveats

High confidence: All items verified at primary sources (SEC/CFTC press releases, exchange official communications, SFC circulars, ICIJ investigation, SEC staff guidance). Market price data sourced from CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, Bloomberg, Bitget, and MetaMask; derivatives data from TradingView, Deribit, CryptoQuant.

Moderate confidence (1 item): Aerodrome DNS attack recovery timeline and final loss estimate; investigation ongoing as of 22 Nov morning UTC. No official post-mortem published; relying on community reporting and platform advisory.

Key risks flagged: (1) Macro Fed pivot could rapidly reverse liquidity dynamics; (2) Additional security exploits possible if DNS compromise pattern spreads; (3) Taiwan FSC enforcement could trigger regional delisting cascade; (4) November realized losses exceed capitulation benchmarks, suggesting deeper macro volatility ahead.

Confidence Statement: High confidence; all primary headlines verified at official sources. Aerodrome incident still under investigation; timeline and final figures may shift as SFC/DAO transparency updates surface. 2930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778

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