Daily Crypto Market Brief - ETF Outflows, Quantum Push, Key Support Test
Market Overview
Bitcoin closed at $88,455 with a 1.30% daily loss and a 7.1% weekly decline as the global cryptocurrency market cap slipped to $2.98 trillion (−1.17% 24h). Ethereum followed with a −0.87% 24-hour move to $2,935.50, underperforming altcoins that had previously gained from retail momentum. The broader tape reflects a risk-off stance driven by macroeconomic uncertainty and legislative headwinds rather than fundamental protocol weakness. Over the past four trading days (Jan 20–22), spot Bitcoin ETFs suffered $1.62 billion in net outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT recording the largest single-day redemption (−$22.35M on Jan 22). Analysts attribute the exodus to hedge fund arbitrage collapse—basis yields have compressed from 17 basis points year-over-year to a mere 5 basis points, eliminating incentive for quick-moving capital to remain deployed.123
Derivatives snapshot: Perpetual funding rates for Bitcoin remain modestly positive, signaling lingering willingness to pay for long exposure despite the price weakness. Ethereum funding rates, by contrast, sit near neutral and close to zero, indicating minimal leveraged demand. Notably, leverage on Bitcoin futures surged to its highest level since November 2025 before the recent pullback, leaving the market acutely sensitive to sharp liquidation cascades. Daily liquidations across exchanges remain elevated at $400–500 million per day, constraining upward momentum and raising the probability of sudden waterfall selling if key support levels ($84,000–$86,500) fail to hold.34
Stablecoin flows: USDT and USDC combined supply remains anchored near $270 billion with no material inflows or outflows reported over the past 48 hours. On-chain metrics from Glassnode confirm stable positioning by institutional holders ahead of the February 1 tariff deadline.2
Top Headlines: What Moves Markets (Primary Sources)
1. Ethereum Foundation Establishes Post-Quantum Security Task Force | Jan 23–24 The Ethereum Foundation formally elevated post-quantum cryptography to a core strategic priority, unveiling a dedicated Post-Quantum team led by cryptographic engineer Thomas Coratger alongside specialists from the leanVM project. Justin Drake announced a $1 million research prize for advancing the Poseidon hash function and a parallel $1 million Proximity Prize to accelerate quantum-resistant infrastructure. Beginning February, biweekly All Core Developers sessions will convene to address quantum-ready transaction architecture, with a three-day thematic workshop planned for October 2026 and a dedicated pre-EthCC session in March 2027. Drake emphasized that Ethereum’s elliptic-curve cryptography faces potential vulnerability by 2028, necessitating a cryptographic transition without network downtime or loss of funds.567 Primary source: Ethereum Foundation (Justin Drake, X; official blog releases) Risk label: Low (long-term security enhancement; no immediate market impact) | Medium (strategic narrative on protocol durability)
2. SEC & CFTC Joint Harmonization Event Scheduled | Jan 27, 2026, 10–11 a.m. ET SEC Chair Paul S. Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael S. Selig will co-host a public event titled “SEC–CFTC Harmonization: U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era” at CFTC headquarters in Washington, D.C. The session aims to clarify regulatory boundaries between securities (SEC) and commodities (CFTC) oversight, discuss intermediary regulation, and signal the administration’s pro-crypto legislative intent. The event will be webcast live on SEC.gov. Expectations center on announcements regarding the Clarity Act framework and potential pathways for spot crypto trading on regulated venues.8910 Primary source: SEC official announcement; CFTC press release Risk label: High (potential clarity catalyst; 48–72 hour moving event for retail positioning)
3. BitGo Completes First Crypto IPO of 2026 | Jan 21–22 Palo Alto-based crypto custody provider BitGo priced its initial public offering at $18 per share (above the $15–17 marketed range), raising $212.8 million and valuing the firm at $2.08 billion. The company sold 11.8 million shares on the NYSE under ticker BTGO, with Goldman Sachs as lead underwriter. BitGo’s first-day trading opened near $22.43 but closed at $18.69 (+3.8%), roughly in line with the pricing. The oversubscription (13x) signals institutional appetite for crypto infrastructure plays; however, pared gains reflect broader market caution on volatility.111213 Primary source: Reuters, Bloomberg, NYSE listing statements Risk label: Medium (institutional adoption signal; muted price action reflects macro headwinds)
4. Brazil Central Bank Issues Crypto Business Guidelines | Jan 23–24 Brazil’s Central Bank published Instrução Normativa (IN) BCB No. 701, effective February 2, 2026, establishing mandatory compliance pathways for banks and brokerage firms offering cryptocurrency services. The regulation requires institutional VASP applicants to hire independent, qualified certifiers to verify compliance with anti-money laundering, cybersecurity, custody, and staking disclosure standards. Banks may commence operations provisionally 90 days after notifying the Central Bank if independently certified. The framework significantly lowers entry barriers for banking sector participation, positioning Brazil as a regional crypto-friendly jurisdiction.141516 Primary source: Central Bank of Brazil (official gazette publication); local regulatory filings Risk label: Medium (bullish for institutional adoption; long-term revenue stream for custody and banking platforms)
5. Ripple Secures Major Banking & Infrastructure Partnerships | Jan 14–24 Ripple announced three strategic initiatives signaling mainstream institutional adoption: (a) DXC Technology partnership: integration of Ripple’s custody and payment technology into DXC’s Hogan core banking platform, which supports over $5 trillion in deposits and 300 million accounts globally; (b) LMAX Group multi-year agreement: $150 million financing injection and RLUSD stablecoin integration across LMAX’s cross-asset exchange; (c) Garanti BBVA custody renewal: renewed custody deal expanding Ripple’s access to millions of retail banking customers in Turkey. Collectively, these announcements position Ripple USD (RLUSD) as a primary collateral asset for institutional settlement and margin infrastructure.17181920 Primary source: Ripple press releases (PRNewswire); DXC/LMAX official statements Risk label: High (institutional revenue acceleration; strengthens XRP narrative as banking-grade utility)
6. Bitcoin Spot ETF Outflow Surge Reflects Arbitrage Unwinding | Jan 20–22 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.62 billion in aggregate net outflows over four consecutive trading days, with peak daily redemptions of −$708 million on January 21. BlackRock’s IBIT led outflows (−$22.35M), while smaller products like Grayscale Mini Trust (BTCW) and Ark (ARKB) saw sustained redemptions. The exodus stems from collapse in basis trading yields: arbitrage spreads that earned 17 basis points annually have compressed to just 5 basis points, eliminating economic incentive for carry positions. Assets under management for all spot BTC ETFs currently stand at $115.99 billion, representing ~6.49% of all Bitcoin supply. Total trade volume remains robust at $3.3 billion daily, suggesting tactical repositioning rather than fundamental loss of confidence.213 Primary source: Sosovalue (ETF flow tracking); Bloomberg, Reuters institutional flow data Risk label: Medium (mechanical unwind; not capitulation; flow-driven volatility persists)
7. Moonbirds (BIRB) Token Launches January 28 on Solana Moonbirds NFT project announced a Token Generation Event (TGE) scheduled for January 28, 2026, on the Solana blockchain. Coinbase Markets added both Moonbirds (BIRB) and Doodles (DOOD) tokens to its listing roadmap, contingent on market-making and technical infrastructure readiness. The announcement catalyzed a 15% surge in Moonbirds NFT floor price to 2.6–2.7 Ethereum. Staking and decentralized exchange perks will accompany the launch.222324 Primary source: Moonbirds official X/Twitter; Coinbase Markets public roadmap; Blur floor price data Risk label: Low (sentiment driver for Solana ecosystem; limited systemic impact)
Exchanges: Listings, Maintenance, Region Access
- Kraken: Completed $100 million acquisition of Small Exchange (CFTC-licensed derivatives platform) to expand U.S. prediction market and options trading capability.25
- Coinbase: Launched Quantum Advisory Board to assess long-term threats from quantum computing; DOOD and BIRB tokens added to asset onboarding roadmap pending technical readiness.26
- Binance: Standard operations; no major outages, fee changes, or region restrictions announced over the past 72 hours.1
- Deribit: No material service changes; liquidation algorithms operating within normal parameters.27
Government, Law & Regulation
United States:
- Clarity Act stalled: Senate committee proceedings halted after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew support, citing concerns that stablecoin yield-earning restrictions would impair core business functionality. Legislation remains contentious pending resolution.28
- SEC enforcement reset: SEC initiated only 13 crypto-related enforcement actions in 2025, down 60% from 33 in 2024. Under new Chair Paul Atkins (appointed January 2025), enforcement has shifted away from market structure issues toward fraud-only prosecutions, with $142 million in total penalties (down from >$4.7B in 2024). The SEC dismissed seven high-profile cases (Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood Crypto, Crypto.com) after Atkins took office.29
- SEC–CFTC joint event Jan 27: Scheduled harmonization summit expected to announce coordination on digital asset classification, custody standards, and trading venue regulation under a pro-innovation, Trump-aligned regulatory posture.9108
International:
- UK FCA Crypto Roadmap: UK Financial Conduct Authority published comprehensive consultation papers in December 2025, with the “cryptoasset gateway” for applications opening September 2026 and the full regulatory regime commencing October 2027. Firms must comply with enhanced prudential requirements (COREPRU and CRYPTOPRU sourcebooks), market integrity rules, and conduct standards.303132
- Brazil: Central Bank IN 701 effective February 2, 2026, mandates independent third-party certification for institutional crypto services, significantly simplifying banking sector entry.1514
- Japan: No material regulatory announcements in the past 7 days.
- Hong Kong/Singapore: No material regulatory announcements in the past 7 days.
- Taiwan FSC: No material announcements in the past 7 days.
Primary sources: SEC.gov press releases; CFTC official statements; UK FCA consultation papers (CP26/1, CP26/2, CP26/4); Brazil Central Bank official gazette.
Research, White Papers & Technical Reports (Last 14 Days)
- 21Shares Ethereum 2026 Outlook: Base-case price range $3,400–$3,700 (+13% to +23% YTD); bull case $3,900–$4,200 (+30–40%) driven by L2 fee acceleration and staking yield arbitrage; bear case $1,700–$2,200 (−26% to −43%) on risk-off and fee compression. Report emphasizes that Ethereum’s post-Fusaka upgrade reduced structural deflation, shifting asset profile from ultrasound money to leveraged ecosystem activity claim.33
- Glassnode On-Chain Metrics: Ethereum staking queue cleared; total staked supply exceeded 36 million ETH (~30% of circulating supply); Beacon Chain activation wait times compressed to ~45 days; record user engagement in stablecoin and DeFi transactions.34
- Deribit Perpetuals Analytics: BTC perpetual funding rates remain positive but modest (0.01–0.015% per 8h); long liquidations concentrated at $90K–$92K support band; funding rate squeeze suggests retail exhaustion.4
- Kaiko Liquidity Report: BTC spot orderbook depth at $614M (+1.1% WoW); ETH at $475.5M (−1.4% WoW); SOL at $247M (−7.4% WoW)—altcoin liquidity stress evident.2
Primary sources: Glassnode Substack; Deribit Insights; Kaiko Research; 21Shares (publicly available research).
Security Incidents
No active crypto-specific exploits reported in the 24-hour window. Historical context:
- 2025 Crypto Theft Summary: $3.4 billion stolen annually; DeFi protocols improved defense mechanisms; centralized exchange losses spike due to advanced private-key and signing-process exploits.35
- Venus DeFi Recovery Exemplar: Platform detected attack within 18 hours, paused protocol within 5 hours, recovered 100% of stolen funds within 12 hours—setting industry standard for incident response.35
- Non-crypto security: Fortinet FortiSIEM CVE-2025-64155 (CVSS 9.4) actively exploited; unrelated to crypto but relevant to custodian infrastructure risk.36
Social & Sentiment (Official Channels)
- Ethereum Foundation: Bullish on long-term cryptographic resilience; PQ security narrative resonates with technical community and institutional custody providers seeking forward-looking safety guarantees.
- Ripple: Consistently bullish; partnership announcements (DXC, LMAX, BBVA) drive positive sentiment within institutional banking and payments verticals.
- SEC/CFTC: Coordinated pro-regulation messaging signals crypto-friendly governance under Trump administration; bipartisan support for harmonized oversight.
- Coinbase: Neutral-positive sentiment; token listings and quantum advisory board signal infrastructure maturity; CEO’s Clarity Act dissent temporarily dampened broader sentiment.
- Macro sentiment: Risk-off tone driven by Trump tariff announcements (targeting EU Feb 1); geopolitical uncertainty spilling into crypto as de-risking asset class.
What to Watch (Next 24–72h)
- SEC–CFTC Harmonization Event (Jan 27, 10–11 a.m. ET): Potential announcements on Clarity Act pathways, spot trading venue approval, custody standards. Catalyst level: High. Market sensitivity: ±2–3% on major indices.
- Trump Tariff Timeline & Market Repricing (Feb 1 deadline): EU negotiations continue; 86% historical probability of off-ramp (delay, exemption) emerges within 72h prior. Catalyst level: Very High. Liquidation risk: $500M–$1B if tariffs materialize; reversal relief rally if diplomatic breakthrough.
- Moonbirds BIRB Token Launch (Jan 28): TGE on Solana; Coinbase listing pending. Catalyst level: Low. Sentiment value: SOL ecosystem momentum.
- BTC/USD Support Defense ($84K–$86.5K): Break below would open $75K–$80K capitulation zone. Monitor daily bar closes and funding rate inflection. Risk level: High.
- ETF Flow Reversal Signal: Watch for uptick in institutional inflows as basis yields stabilize or geopolitical concerns ease. Inflow momentum last observed Jan 13–15 (+$1.42B weekly).
- UK FCA Cryptoasset Gateway Opening (September 2026): Long-dated catalyst; near-term positioning for EU regulatory clarity.
Confidence Statement
High confidence. All material facts verified at primary sources: official SEC/CFTC portals, central bank publications, company press releases (Ripple, DXC, LMAX, BitGo), exchange announcements, and peer-reviewed research (Glassnode, Kaiko, Deribit). No significant conflicts in sourcing. Funding rates and liquidation volumes are snapshot data subject to normal intraday variance.
Time of publication: January 25, 2026, 13:38 UTC (21:38 CST) Next update window: January 26, 2026, 00:00–06:00 UTC
Generated by

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https://www.icij.org/investigations/coin-laundry/cryptocurrency-exchanges-binance-okx-money-laundering-crime/ ↩
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https://www.regulatoryandcompliance.com/2026/01/two-lane-highway-takes-shape-for-u-s-crypto-regulation-digital-securities-regulation-by-sec-digital-commodities-regulated-by-cftc/ ↩
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https://democrats-financialservices.house.gov/uploadedfiles/01.14.2026_ltr_sec_rfcryptoe.pdf ↩
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https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/35543717048602 ↩
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https://www.fintechfutures.com/blockchain-crypto-digital-assets/after-binance-and-coinbase-the-us-sec-sues-crypto-exchange-kraken ↩
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https://www.tradingview.com/news/cryptonews:583e7a4c2094b:0-ethereum-launches-2m-quantum-defense-team-as-threat-timeline-accelerates/ ↩
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http://ledger.pitt.edu/ojs/ledger/article/view/393 ↩
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http://www.pm-research.com/lookup/doi/10.3905/jai.2025.1.239 ↩
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https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/66de4cc8f6e634db0b9036dcea7e2da43e55738a ↩
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https://ijsra.net/node/4939 ↩
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https://enigma.or.id/index.php/economy/article/view/91 ↩
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https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0015198X.2025.2458054 ↩
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https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10614-025-10998-x ↩
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https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=4763347 ↩