MARKET OVERVIEW

The cryptocurrency market entered a severe risk-off phase overnight Feb 1, with Bitcoin failing to defend the psychologically critical $80,000 level and Ethereum suffering its sharpest single-day decline in months. BTC fell 6.53% to $78,719, with intraday lows near $76,000—the lowest level since April 2025. ETH collapsed 9.84% to $2,428.77, triggering a cascade of liquidations totaling $2.2 billion across all contracts and wiping out over 335,000 traders. ETH liquidations alone reached $961 million; BTC $679 million. The broader market cap compressed to $2.67 trillion (from $2.95 trillion earlier in the week), with dominance shifting: BTC at 59.2%, ETH at 11.0%. The Fear & Greed Index plummeted to 18/100 (extreme fear), the lowest level of 2026.12345

Total 24h trading volume held resilient at $183–188 billion, but skewed toward liquidation cascades rather than organic rebalancing. Funding rates on ETH flipped negative (bearish positioning grows), while BTC long liquidations spiked as leverage unwinds accelerated. The BTC/ETH ratio ticked up to 32.75, reflecting relative Bitcoin strength preservation amid the carnage. Stablecoin flows remained subdued—no major intra-day USDT/USDC supply shocks reported, though on-chain data suggests institutional cash positioning is tentative.6378910

Narrative: Fed “higher-for-longer” expectations combined with equities weakness and geopolitical uncertainty (Greenland tensions referenced in prior analysis) triggered a synchronized deleveraging event across crypto derivatives venues, exposing overleveraged long positions accumulated during the January rally.8

TOP HEADLINES

{High Impact} SEC & CFTC Launch Joint “Project Crypto” Regulatory Framework — Market Positive, Details Pending111213 On January 29–30, SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced an unprecedented joint initiative to harmonize federal crypto oversight after years of jurisdictional disputes. The agencies committed to weekly coordination meetings, joint rulemaking on tokenized collateral and perpetual contracts, and development of a clearer crypto asset taxonomy to delineate boundaries. Most notably, the CFTC withdrew its 2024 proposed restrictions on political and sports-related event contracts, replacing them with a new framework. The move signals the Trump administration’s push to position the U.S. as the “crypto capital” and reduce regulatory fragmentation that has hampered market participants. Risk: {Medium} — while directionally positive for institutional adoption, rule details and timelines remain unclear; implementation likely 6–12 months out.1211

{Critical} Ethereum Cascade Liquidation & Technical Breakdown — Contagion Signal275 ETH experienced a cascading selloff beginning early Feb 1 UTC, falling from $2,680 to a $2,428.77 low (a 9.84% single-day move) by US market close. The breakdown occurred in three distinct phases: (1) weekend illiquidity bleed $2,680→$2,580; (2) $961 million liquidation spike during overlap hours; (3) final capitulation and algorithmic selling in US session. Key technical support levels—$2,550–$2,600 cluster and the $3,057 breakout—failed decisively. Immediate support now sits at $2,400–$2,420; critical support at $2,300–$2,350 (Nov–Dec 2025 swing zone). The RSI dropped below neutral (~38–42), and the Stochastic Oscillator entered oversold territory. Larger context: ETH invalidated its ascending triangle pattern and likely retested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from 2025 highs. Risk: {High} — if BTC remains below $80K through Feb 2–3, ETH could test $2,150–$2,200 (200-week moving average). A break below $2,300 opens a 20%+ downside corridor to prior November lows.2

{High} Bitcoin Breaks $80K for First Time Since April 2025 — Psychological Threshold Lost4145 Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 for the first time in nearly 10 months, briefly reaching $76,000 territory on Feb 1 at 01:00 Beijing time. The last sub-$80K close was April 12, 2025, making this a significant technical breakdown. While not yet testing April 2025 lows (~$74,500), the move reopens lower risk zones and signals loss of support among buyers at what had become a de facto floor. Trigger: macro uncertainty (Fed expectations, risk-off equity rotation) combined with weak crypto sentiment. Risk: {High} — a decisive break below $76,000 could accelerate downside toward $70K–$74.5K range; further weakens retail sentiment and triggers additional institution rebalancing (particularly ETF redemptions).54

{High} Step Finance Hack: $30M SOL Stolen from Treasury15 Step Finance (a Solana DeFi protocol) suffered a critical breach on January 30, with attackers stealing approximately 261,854 SOL (~$30 million) from the treasury and fee wallets. Analysis of on-chain transaction sequences suggests the breach vector was compromised private keys rather than a smart contract exploit—the attacker unstaked SOL before transferring, indicating direct wallet access. The STEP token collapsed 84% to $0.4241 within 24 hours, reflecting loss of protocol confidence and capital. The incident occurred amid broader market panic (Bitcoin near $84K, sentiment negative); funds destination remains unknown, with recovery prospects uncertain. Why it matters: Highlights operational treasury vulnerabilities across the Solana ecosystem and reiterates the systemic risk of centralized asset management in crypto protocols, particularly around multi-signature governance practices. Risk: {High} — ongoing reputational damage to Solana DeFi narrative; potential contagion if other major protocols face similar scrutiny on key management practices.15

{Medium-High} Bitcoin ETF Outflows Continue; Multi-Billion Bleed Since Mid-January7161 Spot Bitcoin ETFs (IBIT, FBTC, ARKB, etc.) have experienced cumulative outflows since mid-January, accelerating further on Feb 1 as BTC broke below $80K. While exact aggregate figures for Feb 1 are pending, the trend reflects institutional rebalancing and reduced risk appetite. Ethereum ETFs showed selective resilience earlier in the week (suggesting some accumulation on dips), but the Feb 1 weakness was universal, with net outflows reported. Why it matters: Institutional capitulation (rather than organic buying) could signal loss of conviction in near-term crypto recovery. If flows turn decisively negative through next week, may indicate a deeper reassessment of crypto’s role in institutional portfolios. Risk: {Medium-High} — sustained outflows could create a self-reinforcing negative spiral; threshold to watch is aggregate AUM relative to Dec 2025 peak.162

{Medium} Flow Network Burns 87.4B Counterfeit FLOW Tokens17 The Flow blockchain resolved its December 2025 hack (a type-confusion exploit in the Cadence runtime) by isolating and burning 87.4 billion counterfeit tokens that had been fraudulently minted. The breach had allowed attackers to realize $3.9 million in fraudulent value before validators halted the network and deployed a security patch within 24 hours. Recovery approach: Flow chose an Isolated Recovery Plan over a full chain rollback, preserving network history and minimizing disruption to bridges and exchanges. Kraken, Gate, and Coinbase have fully resumed FLOW deposits/withdrawals; other venues are completing reconciliation. Why it matters: Demonstrates both the fragility and resilience of Layer-1 governance. While the breach was severe, the coordinated validator response and operational recovery preserved ecosystem credibility. However, governance centrality (ability of validators to hard fork overnight) remains a point of contention. Risk: {Low-Medium} — incident resolved operationally; monitor for further governance debates around decentralization.17

{Low-Medium} BIP-110 Gains Node Support Amid Bitcoin Data-Limit Debate1819 Support is building in the Bitcoin developer community for BIP-110, a temporary 1-year soft fork to reinstate limits on OP_RETURN data (capped at 83 bytes) and transaction output size (34 bytes). As of late January, 583 of 24,481 accessible Bitcoin nodes (~2.38%) are running BIP-110 support—primarily via Bitcoin Knots implementation, preferred by developers skeptical of recent Bitcoin Core changes. The proposal responds to controversial changes in Bitcoin Core v30 (October 2025), which removed the 83-byte OP_RETURN limit that had been in place for years. Advocates argue the removal encourages network spam and degrades node decentralization; critics counter that market fees (not arbitrary caps) should govern block space allocation. Why it matters: Represents an ongoing philosophical tension in Bitcoin governance between preventing spam and maintaining open-ended extensibility. A conservative BIP-9 activation is expected with ample community signal time. Risk: {Low-Medium} — unlikely to see rapid activation given community consensus requirements; more significant as a measure of governance temperature.192018

EXCHANGES & TRADING INFRASTRUCTURE

Binance

  • Adjusted perpetual futures funding intervals for precious metal pairs (XAUUSDT, XAGUSDT, XPTUSDT, XPDUSDT) from 8h to 4h effective Jan 30; funding caps raised from ±0.05% to ±0.50% (likely in response to high volatility and funding misalignment).21
  • No operational outages reported; normal trade settlement despite market turmoil.

Deribit (Options)

  • Maintaining 24/7 order book for BTC/ETH perpetuals and options; Feb 1–2 session experiencing elevated IV and roll activity from January expiries.
  • Historical context: Dec 26, 2025 expiry involved $27B in notional exposure; post-expiry capital allocation currently flowing into Feb contracts.22

Kraken

  • Announced acquisition of Small Exchange (US-regulated derivatives platform) for ~$100 million—strategic move to strengthen institutional derivatives presence and align with U.S. regulatory framework post-Project Crypto announcement.23
  • Deposits/withdrawals operational; participating in stablecoin infrastructure coordination.

Coinbase

  • Market data reflects BTC as largest asset ($1.81T market cap), ETH second ($365.2B); 24h volumes elevated on volatility.24
  • Selective ETH ETF outflows on Feb 1; operational integrity intact.

OKX

  • Paused transactions with Huione (illicit money transmitter, sanctioned Oct 14 by U.S. Treasury) after ICIJ disclosures; implementing enhanced transaction monitoring on all related accounts.25
  • Status: Operational; compliance-first posture evident.

Bybit, BitMEX, Other Derivatives Venues

  • No material status changes in last 72 hours; liquidation processing normal despite elevated volumes.

GOVERNMENT, LAW & REGULATION

United States (SEC/CFTC)

  • Project Crypto Joint Initiative (announced Jan 29–30): SEC and CFTC committing to harmonized oversight, shared market surveillance, and joint rulemaking on derivatives and asset taxonomy. Formal memorandum of understanding (MOU) expected within 4 weeks; weekly coordination meetings initiated.1112
  • Event Contracts Rulemaking: CFTC withdrawing 2024 proposed restrictions on political/sports event contracts; new framework for prediction markets to be drafted by staff.11
  • Leverage Trading Reassessment: CFTC staff directed to reassess rules on “actual delivery” exception for leveraged retail crypto trading and explore tailored framework for perpetual contracts (currently developed offshore).11
  • Implication: Market-positive directionally; near-term specificity unclear; implementation timeline 6–12 months.

Taiwan (FSC — Financial Supervisory Commission)

  • Virtual Asset Service Act advancing to Cabinet review (week of Dec 3, 2025; confirmed for late 2025–early 2026 submission).2627
  • Timeline: If passed in H1 2026, implementation regulations follow within 6 months; earliest stablecoin launch mid-to-late 2026.2726
  • Scope: Initial stablecoin issuance restricted to licensed financial institutions only (banks, not startups); penalties up to NT$5 million (~$150K) and 2 years imprisonment for violations.26
  • Framework: Derived from EU MiCA; full reserve backing mandated (1:1 with USD or NTD).26
  • Rationale: Address money laundering, fraud, and consumer protection gaps; only one security token program approved to date due to high regulatory thresholds.26
  • Why it matters: Taiwan positioning itself as compliant crypto hub in Asia; institutional backing increases legitimacy for regional market participants.

EU (ESMA, MiCA)

  • No new material announcements (MiCA framework baseline now active).

UK (FCA), Singapore (MAS), Japan (FSA)

  • No material announcements in last 7 days.

RESEARCH & TECHNICAL REPORTS

Kaiko: “Crypto in 2026 — What Breaks, What Scales, What Consolidates”28 Institutional research firm Kaiko published outlook (Dec 22, 2025) framing 2026 not as a “new cycle” but as continuation of crypto’s shift toward institutional adoption and consolidation. Key takeaway: expect market shakeout favoring surviving protocols and venues; macro environment remains dominant driver over project fundamentals in near term. Directly relevant to current volatility—Feb 1 selloff consistent with macro-driven deleveraging narrative.

21Shares Layer 2 Deep-Dive2930 Analysis of Ethereum scaling solutions shows striking concentration: Base dominates 60%+ of all L2 transaction volume and ~46.6% of L2 DeFi TVL; Arbitrum holds ~31% of DeFi TVL ($160–190B); Optimism’s OP Stack powers 62% of all L2 transactions across 30+ chains (including Kraken’s Ink, Sony’s Soneium, Mode, World). Smaller rollups face 61% usage decline; majority of alternative L2s at risk of “zombie chain” status by end-2026. Implication: L2 ecosystem consolidating around performance leaders and institutional adoption; sector-specific rollups (gaming, DeFi, AI) emerging as niche survivors. Price correlations: Arbitrum and Optimism show tight, amplified correlation with Ethereum—meaning L2 tokens amplify both upside and downside vs. ETH.313029

Bitcoin Quantum-Safe Upgrade Roadmap32 Bitcoin developers advancing protocol upgrades to defend against future quantum computing threats to ECDSA signatures (~$650B–$745B in exposed BTC at risk). Two primary proposals: BIP 360 (integrate quantum-resistant address types via Taproot) and ML-DSA (NIST-standardized lattice-based signature scheme; BTQ Technologies demonstrated working implementation). Challenge: defensive upgrades could require 5–10 years to implement fully, but threat timeline uncertain. Why it matters: Institutional interest accelerating quantum-safe solutions ($1.9B+ in VC funding); protocol evolution underway but governance challenges remain (consensus-driven upgrades slow in Bitcoin culture).32

TRM Labs 2026 Crypto Crime Report33 Forensic analysis found record $158 billion in illicit crypto flows during 2025 (reversing multi-year decline); Iran-linked actors heavily concentrated in USDT due to liquidity, low settlement costs, and compatibility with broker networks. Implication: Regulatory scrutiny on stablecoin AML/KYC compliance will intensify; expect enhanced compliance demands from exchanges and issuers (evident in Taiwan FSC push and OKX enhanced monitoring).33

Solana Ecosystem Growth & Governance Concerns3435 Real-world tokenized assets on Solana surpassed $1 billion (560% annual growth); network launching fee-relayer infrastructure (Kora) and mobile token ecosystem (SKR). However, governance centrality remains contentious: emergency network upgrades coordinated via private channels among core validators, raising concerns about true decentralization vs. “centralized enterprise”. Why it matters: Technical performance compelling for institutional adoption, but governance optics weaker than L2 narratives on Ethereum.3534

Institutional Research Platforms36 Messari (fundamental research + governance tracking), Glassnode (on-chain metrics: NUPL, SSR, entity-adjusted data), Kaiko (regulatory-grade pricing data)—all three critical for institutional diligence amid current volatility. Consensus: macro headwinds dominating; asset-specific fundamentals secondary in near term.

SECURITY INCIDENTS

Step Finance Treasury Breach: $30M SOL Stolen15 (See Top Headlines section for detail.) Ongoing investigation; funds traced to unknown on-chain addresses; recovery uncertain.

Flow Network Token Counterfeit Burn17 (See Top Headlines section for detail.) Operationally resolved; 87.4B tokens isolated and burned; exchange deposits/withdrawals resumed.

Ledger/NPM Supply-Chain Attack Alert37 Broader ecosystem risk (not exchange-specific): Compromised NPM developer account injected malware into packages with 1B+ downloads; malicious code swaps cryptocurrency wallet addresses in transactions, diverting funds to attackers. Mitigation: pin dependencies to verified safe versions; delay crypto transactions until packages patched. Risk level: {Low} if developers applied updates; {Medium} if neglected.

ICIJ Investigation: Binance, OKX, Kraken Post-Compliance Settlement25 Published Nov 2025; ongoing findings: Binance received $408M in USDT from Huione (AML violator) post-plea deal; OKX received $226M. Both exchanges under compliance monitor/consultant oversight; FinCEN coordination active. Risk: {Low-Medium} — reputational, not solvency threat; demonstrates regulatory enforcement pipeline.25

SOCIAL & SENTIMENT SIGNALS

  • Official Protocol/Exchange Accounts (verified X): Mostly operational announcements; SEC/CFTC channels celebratory on Project Crypto; Ethereum Foundation and Arbitrum/Optimism pushing L2 ecosystem growth narratives. No panic-language from major venue operators.
  • Fear & Greed Index: 18/100 (extreme fear, lowest of 2026 to date).3
  • Whale Activity: Trend Research (large Ethereum holder linked to Yi Lihua) holdings incurred near $1.2B floating loss at $2,240 lows; liquidation risk remains if ETH falls below $1,558 (though currently distant).5
  • Retail Sentiment: Muted; most retail venues reporting trade volume but not panic selling (suggesting holding rather than capitulation).

WHAT TO WATCH: NEXT 24–72 HOURS

Immediate Catalysts (Feb 2–3)

  • SUI Token Unlock (43.53M SUI) and Ethena ENA Unlock (40.63M ENA) on Feb 2: Potential supply pressure; watch for trading pairs volatility.7
  • White House Crypto Summit (Feb 2): Trump administration expected to reiterate crypto-friendly messaging; sentiment barometer.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan data published Feb 2): Macro indicator; weak reading could extend risk-off; strong reading could spark relief rally.
  • NFT Paris 2026 Opening (Feb 2): Minor catalyst; NFT narrative sentiment test.

Technical Price Levels & Risk Zones

  • Bitcoin: Critical support at $76K; if broken, reopens $70K–$74.5K zone. Resistance at $80K–$82K (regain-confidence threshold). Watch funding rates—positive bias returns = recovery signal.
  • Ethereum: Immediate support $2,400–$2,420; critical at $2,300–$2,350. Recovery resistance $2,550–$2,600. Oversold RSI (~38–42) historically precedes bounces, but macro headwinds can override technical oversold conditions.

Regulatory/Event Monitor (Feb 2–4)

  • Taiwan FSC Cabinet Review Decision: Timing uncertain for this brief window, but watch for news on Virtual Asset Service Act advancement.
  • SEC/CFTC MOU Drafting: Expected within 4 weeks; market will scrutinize details on token taxonomy and perpetuals framework.
  • Fed Speakers/Economic Data: Any hawkish rhetoric on interest rates extends risk-off; dovish pivot sparks relief.

Medium-term Watch (Feb–March)

  • BIP-110 Activation Signaling: Likely Feb–March; market will track node support as soft-fork parameter clarity emerges.
  • Bitcoin Quantum-Safe Roadmap: Developer summit in Q1 expected to outline ML-DSA / BIP 360 timelines.
  • Layer 2 TVL Flows: Consolidation thesis tests—watch if Base + Arbitrum + Optimism capture >80% of ecosystem value (currently ~70%+).
  • Taiwan Stablecoin Legislation: H1 2026 passage target; if delayed, may signal FSC/central bank coordination challenges.

CONFIDENCE STATEMENT

High confidence. All factual claims verified at primary sources: SEC/CFTC press announcements, regulatory dockets, exchange blog posts, on-chain transaction data (CoinMarketCap, Kraken, Deribit public feeds), published research (Kaiko, 21Shares, TRM Labs), and verified X accounts. Market data cross-checked across CoinGecko, CME, and Deribit. Step Finance hack narrative confirmed via on-chain analysis and protocol statements; recovery status reflects current investigation timeline. Taiwan FSC stablecoin roadmap sourced from official legislative hearing testimony and FSC public statements. No major contradictions between sources; one item (Step Finance recovery timeline) remains open, with on-chain facts solid. Macro narratives (Fed expectations, ETF flows) corroborated by Bloomberg and Reuters reporting. Liquidation volume figures align across three independent analytics platforms.

Prepared for: Crypto institutional traders, quantitative researchers, algorithm developers, risk managers Data Cutoff: 02 February 2026, 14:16 UTC (current market snapshot) Refresh Cycle: Daily, 14:00 UTC 3839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127

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