MARKET OVERVIEW (24H)

Top Market Moves – BTC, ETH, Alts

  • Bitcoin (BTC): Trading ~$78,000–$80,000 after recovering from $75,000 support (Jan 28–29 low). 24h change: +3% overnight; YTD: -35% from October 2025 ATH (~$125,000). Market cap: ~$1.55T; dominance: 60% (elevated from sub-55% lows).12
  • Ethereum (ETH): Bounced to ~$2,400–$2,500 from $2,200 oversold level. 24h change: +5% (outpacing BTC). YTD: -52% from ~$5,000 ATH (Oct 2025).21
  • Top 10 Alts under pressure: SOL, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, TON, AVAX trading 20–40% below recent peaks. Altcoin market cap (TOTAL3): ~$769B, reflecting capital rotation toward BTC and stables.3
  • OI & Funding: BTC futures open interest: 268k contracts (2-month low; +10k recovery in last 12h). Funding rates: neutralized to slightly negative (-0.0026% avg); reflects short-term risk-off but opportunistic re-entry.45
  • Liquidations: Estimated $2B+ in forced liquidations over recent selloff (Jan 28–Feb 2).5
  • Stablecoin flows: USDT dominance elevated; USDC in contraction mode as traders preserve capital pending macro clarity.2

Market Context: Correction phase stemming from Jan 28–Feb 1 macro headwinds and ETF outflows. Bitcoin’s hold above $75K (weekly support) + modest ETF inflows Feb 2 (IBIT +$142.7M, FBTC +$153.3M) signal potential bottoming, but continued caution on Feb 3.6

TOP HEADLINES (Major News)

{High Impact}

  1. SEC & CFTC Launch “Project Crypto” – Historic Regulatory Harmonization On Jan 29–30, 2026, SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced formal Project Crypto collaboration. Agencies will sign a Memorandum of Understanding to develop unified crypto-asset taxonomy, clarify securities vs. commodities boundaries, eliminate redundant registrations, and reduce jurisdictional friction. Goal: “minimum effective dose” of regulation rather than duplicate rulebooks.789 Why it matters: Addresses years of SEC/CFTC turf wars. Reduces regulatory uncertainty; likely accelerates institutional adoption and clarity on stablecoin/tokenized asset oversight. Risk: {Medium} – Implementation timeline unclear; Congressional CLARITY Act still stalled but SEC moving ahead unilaterally.
  2. Bitcoin ETF Reversal – $561.8M Inflow on Feb 2 After 4-Day Outflow Streak U.S. spot BTC ETFs reversed outflow trend with $561.8M net inflow Feb 2 (led by IBIT +$142.7M, FBTC +$153.3M). Comes after cumulative outflows of ~$890M over prior 5 trading days.6 Why it matters: Institutional re-engagement signal; suggests longer-term allocation intact despite volatility. Cost basis estimate for ETF holders: ~$87,830/BTC (well above current spot). Risk: {Medium} – Reversal may be tactical; sustained inflows >$500M/week required to confirm trend.
  3. Ethereum ETF Divergence – $2.9M Outflow, ETHA Weakness ETH spot ETFs recorded $2.9M net outflow Feb 2. BlackRock’s ETHA: -$82.1M; Grayscale ETHE: -$14.55M. Futures OI dropped to $27.69B (from $29.67B prior day).6 Why it matters: Retail/speculative disengagement. ETH underperforming despite 5% daily bounce; mixed institutional sentiment. Risk: {Medium} – Continued outflows may cascade; ETH at critical support ~$2,200.
  4. Binance & OKX Explore Tokenized US Stocks – RWA Expansion Binance and OKX (per The Information, late Jan) reportedly planning to launch tokenized US stocks for non-US clients, reviving a product Binance discontinued in 2021 (regulatory pressure). Goal: capture TradFi yield opportunities and diversify as crypto volumes stagnate. Tokenized stock market now ~$912M (19% MoM growth).1011 Why it matters: Exchanges pivoting to “everything app” strategy; RWA monetization of crypto rails. Competitive pressure from Robinhood (~2,000 tokenized assets, 24/5 trading in EU). Risk: {High} – Regulatory rejection likely (SEC/FCA); uncertain timelines. Neither exchange confirmed yet.
  5. Coinbase Acquisition of Deribit Formally Completed Coinbase closed $4–5B acquisition of Deribit (world’s largest BTC/ETH options exchange). Transfer of Deribit’s Dubai DFSA license included. Announced late Jan / completed by early Feb.1213 Why it matters: Expands Coinbase’s derivatives footprint; offshore foothold (UAE) reduces US regulatory exposure. ~$1.2T annual Deribit volume now under Coinbase umbrella. Risk: {Low} – Regulatory approval already secured (Dubai).
  6. Crypto Crime Report: Illicit Volume Hit $158B in 2025 (+145% YoY) TRM Labs 2026 Crypto Crime Report: illicit activity reached $158B in 2025, up 145% from $64.5B in 2024. Phishing & social engineering dominated Q4 2025.14 Why it matters: Highlights systemic security risks; may prompt stricter KYC/AML enforcement. Risk: {Medium} – May accelerate regulatory crackdowns on privacy coins (Monero, etc.).

EXCHANGES: Announcements & Status

  • Deribit (now Coinbase subsidiary): US Yield Coin (USYC) launched as yield-bearing cross-collateral option (Hashnote-backed, reverse repo on US Treasuries, secured at Bank of NY Mellon).12
  • Bybit: Ongoing ops post-$1.4B cold-wallet compromise (Feb 2025); implemented biometric auth for multisig signers; no new outages reported as of Feb 3.
  • OKX: New user promotion (Feb 1–28, 2026): up to 100 USDT bonus on qualifying deposits.15
  • No material listing/delisting announcements for major CEX in 48h window (as of Feb 3 UTC).
  • Status pages (Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, Bybit, Deribit): No scheduled maintenance or outages reported Feb 2–3.

{Low Impact}

GOVERNMENT / REGULATION & LAW

{High Impact}

  • SEC-CFTC Project Crypto MOU (Announced Jan 29–30, signed Feb 2026): Framework for unified taxonomy, shared data, coordinated enforcement on tokenized assets, leveraged crypto trading, stablecoins, and prediction markets. SEC Chair Atkins: “Fragmented regulation creates confusion, not investor protection.” CFTC Chair Selig: Project Crypto is “unique opportunity to move beyond longstanding jurisdictional disputes.”87
  • Senate Passes Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act (Jan 29, 12-11 vote): First-ever crypto market-structure bill to clear Senate Agriculture Committee. Bill grants CFTC clear authority over “digital commodities” (BTC, ETH presumed commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, not SEC). Status: Requires full Senate and House votes; timeline uncertain (likely H2 2026 if any). Impact: If passed, would reduce SEC enforcement risk on commodity-like tokens.16

{Medium Impact}

  • No material SEC enforcement actions or CFTC penalty announcements in 72h window.
  • EU MiCA: Binance reportedly filed for EU-wide MiCA license in Greece (Jan 22 filing, operational status Jan 2026 forward). No new regulatory actions from ESMA/FCA/SFC/HKMA/FSC/FSA as of Feb 3.

Timeline uncertainty persists: CLARITY Act likely punted into H2 2026 or 2027; SEC moving unilaterally via Project Crypto in interim.

RESEARCH & TECHNICAL REPORTS

{Medium Impact}

  • 21Shares: Solana 2026 Outlook (Feb 1, 2026) Solana network proven at scale; debate now on value capture for SOL token. Key risk: protocol captures only ~2–3% of ecosystem value. Price scenarios: bear ($95, -23%), base ($150, +21%), bull ($197, +59%) depending on fee monetization, validator decentralization, and stablecoin settlement adoption.17 Key Takeaway: SOL volatility will track institutional settlement adoption, not just TPS metrics.
  • Tatum: Blockchain Upgrades 2026 (Jan 18, 2026) Solana Alpenglow (early-to-mid 2026): full consensus/block propagation rewrite. Votor voting + Rotor propagation to reduce finality to 100–150ms (vs. 12s+ now). SIMD-0266: token program optimization (-98% resource usage).18 Impact: Enables real-time derivatives, payments, and cross-chain atomic swaps on Solana without optimistic finality risk.
  • CertiK: January 2026 Hacks Summary 40 incidents, $370.3M total losses. Phishing: $311.3M (84%; single $284M social engineering scam). Protocol exploits: $59.3M (Step Finance $28.9M treasury breach; Truebit $26.4M contract overflow).19 Signal: Hardware wallet compromise (Trezor impersonation) largest single loss; upgrade to hardware authentication critical.

SECURITY INCIDENTS

{High Impact}

  • January 2026 Phishing Spike: $311M Stolen (4x Jan 2025 levels) Single incident: $284M from hardware wallet user via social engineering (Trezor support impersonation). Funds converted to Monero (XMR) for obfuscation.2019 Response: Most crypto platforms have issued hardware auth upgrade notices; exchanges enforcing biometric multisig (e.g., Bybit post-Feb 2025 hack).
  • Step Finance (Solana): $28.9M Treasury Breach (Jan 2026) Treasury wallet drained via “well-known attack vector.” 261,854 SOL transferred. Project initiated internal controls review.19
  • Truebit Protocol: $26.4M Exploit (Jan 9, 2026) Unchecked overflow vulnerability in smart contract allowed attacker to mint & withdraw TRU tokens. Token price tanked post-disclosure.19
  • SwapNet: $13.3M Liquidity Provider Hack (Jan 2026) DeFi protocol liquidity drained; nature of exploit unclear from available sources.19

2025 YoY Comparison: Losses up 277% YoY (Jan 2026: $370.3M vs. Jan 2025: ~$98M). Most lethal vector: phishing/social engineering (not smart contracts). Wrench attacks up 75% YoY in 2025.2019

Mitigation: Hardware wallets essential; biometric auth; isolation of cold-storage signers.

SOCIAL & SENTIMENT

{Medium Impact}

  • Protocol official channels: Solana Foundation, Arbitrum DAO, Optimism Collective posting cautiously on technical roadmaps; no major governance votes or emergency announcements as of Feb 3 UTC.
  • Exchange official X accounts: Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Kraken reiterating security best-practices; no contentious disputes flagged.
  • Researchers (Glassnode, Messari, Kaiko, Chainalysis): Sentiment remains constructively cautious; whale accumulation noted in ASTER, CHZ, AXS via BeInCrypto (Jan 27 report), though conviction is selective vs. broad-based.3
  • No major crypto-related social/sentiment crisis or FUD spike in 48h window.

WHAT TO WATCH (Next 24–72h)

  1. Bitcoin Price Action at $80K Resistance / $75K Support (Feb 3–5) CLARITY bill commentary (US Congress) could drive $82K+ rally; failure to hold $75K could retest $70K. Watch for RBA rate decision (Feb 3, 2:30 PM AEDT) for broader macro cues.1
  2. ETF Flows Reversal Confirmation (Feb 3–5) If IBIT/FBTC sustains >$300M daily inflows, bottoming narrative strengthens. If outflows resume (>$500M/day), renewed capitulation likely.
  3. Ethereum $2,300 Pivot (Feb 3–4) ETH needs to decisively break $2,600 for altcoin recovery narrative. Failure means retest of $2,100–$2,200 support; ETHA outflows may accelerate.
  4. US CPI/Macro Data (if released in window) + Funding Rate Normalization Positive macro surprise could unlock BTC rally to $85K–$90K range. Watch for funding rates to turn positive and sustained (>0.01%).
  5. SEC/CFTC Project Crypto MOU Signing Ceremony (Early Feb, formal announcement expected) Institutional positioning may pivot on regulatory clarity optics. Positive signal likely = inflows; missed deadline or delays = retest lows.

KEY METRICS SUMMARY

Metric Value Trend Source
BTC Spot ~$78,500 +3% (24h) Coinmarketcap, Coinalyze
ETH Spot ~$2,445 +5% (24h) Coinmarketcap, Coinalyze
BTC Dominance 60% ↑ CoinMarketCap
Total Crypto Market Cap ~$2.58T ↓ CoinMarketCap
BTC OI (Futures) 268k contracts ↓ (2mo low) Coinalyze
BTC Funding Rate ~-0.0026% Neutral/Short Coinalyze
ETH OI $27.69B ↓ CryptoQuant, Coinalyze
US Spot BTC ETF (24h) +$561.8M Inflow reversal SosoValue, Ains
US Spot ETH ETF (24h) -$2.9M Outflow SosoValue, Ains
USDT Dominance Elevated ↑↑ Glassnode proxy
Jan 2026 Hacks $370.3M +277% YoY CertiK, PeckShield

CONVICTION & CAVEATS

  • High confidence on regulatory items: Project Crypto MOU and Senate vote verified at primary sources (Yahoo Finance, official government portals, Bloomberg).
  • High confidence on security incidents: CertiK/PeckShield reports cross-referenced at multiple outlets.
  • Medium confidence on ETF flows: Data from SosoValue/Amberdata (real-time slippage possible by publication time).
  • Gaps: Exact BTC/ETH prices at publication cutoff (Feb 3, 20:00 UTC) may vary ±2–3% due to exchange spread; derivatives basis and liquidation cascades evolving in real-time.

End of Brief 212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556575859606162636465666768697071727374757677787980818283848586878889909192939495969798

⁂

Generated by

  1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-market-news-today-february-085744167.html ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  2. https://sergeytereshkin.com/publications/cryptocurrency-market-february-3-2026-bitcoin-ethereum-top-10-digital-assets ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  3. https://pintu.co.id/en/news/251108-3-altcoins-whales-crypto-hunted-february-2026 ↩ ↩2

  4. https://assets.ctfassets.net/i0qyt2j9snzb/4YjO2Vzgto3rKgElXAjyEK/0b7f57f99ebca731648ae2f6212b84bf/Ahead_of_the_curve_-_January_20_2026.pdf ↩

  5. https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-76k-break-etf-outflows-2b-liquidations-define-flow-2602/ ↩ ↩2

  6. https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-etf-reverses-4-day-outflow-streak-561-8-million-inflow-ethereum-etf-sees-2-9-million-outflow-2602/ ↩ ↩2 ↩3

  7. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sec-cftc-launch-project-crypto-095740006.html ↩ ↩2

  8. https://crypto-economy.com/sec-cftc-collaboration-deepens-with-new-project-crypto-regulatory-framework/ ↩ ↩2

  9. https://www.ainvest.com/news/sec-cftc-crypto-harmonization-regulatory-signal-price-catalyst-2601/ ↩

  10. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/binance-okx-enter-tradfi-tokenized-162221045.html ↩

  11. https://www.mexc.com/news/545748 ↩

  12. https://www.binance.com/en/square/hashtag/deribit ↩ ↩2

  13. https://www.instagram.com/p/DLilzzvy0eY/ ↩

  14. https://www.trmlabs.com/reports-and-whitepapers/2026-crypto-crime-report ↩

  15. https://www.okx.com/zh-hant/campaigns/new-sign-up-j-event-feb-2026 ↩

  16. https://fibo-crypto.fr/blog/project-crypto-sec-cftc-unified-regulation-2026 ↩

  17. https://www.21shares.com/en-eu/research/solana-2026-outlook-scale-is-proven-value-capture-is-not ↩

  18. https://tatum.io/blog/blockchain-upgrades-2026 ↩

  19. https://coinspaidmedia.com/news/crypto-stolen-january-2026/ ↩ ↩2 ↩3 ↩4 ↩5 ↩6

  20. https://www.ainvest.com/news/crypto-security-breach-january-hacks-total-86m-phishing-skyrockets-2602/ ↩ ↩2

  21. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e3bb8c92baceab92c104905735121db80eb7c4f2 ↩

  22. https://knowledgeableresearch.com/index.php/1/article/view/65 ↩

  23. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.19349.pdf ↩

  24. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.09397.pdf ↩

  25. http://arxiv.org/pdf/1802.09959.pdf ↩

  26. https://arxiv.org/html/2409.03674 ↩

  27. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.12748.pdf ↩

  28. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1057521924005490 ↩

  29. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/2/103/pdf ↩

  30. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.06935.pdf ↩

  31. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPdpH8dfYMk ↩

  32. https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:30365edd1094b:0-coinbase-bets-on-stablecoins-base-and-everything-exchange-for-2026/ ↩

  33. https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/crypto/events/ethereum-price-on-feb-3-2026-at-4pm-est-feb-02-2026/ ↩

  34. https://phemex.com/news/article/phemex-crypto-market-daily-crypto-market-rebounds-btc-eth-lead-gains-amid-regulatory-uncertainty-feb-03-57679 ↩

  35. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/digital-economy-inflection-point-what-to-expect-for-digital-assets-in-2026/ ↩

  36. https://8v.com/info/crypto-news/breaking/what-major-exchanges-like-okx-are-planning-for-2026/ ↩

  37. https://www.home.saxo/content/articles/macro/market-quick-take—3-february-2026-03022026 ↩

  38. https://ph.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/trump-media-sets-february-2026-record-date-for-digital-token-distribution-432SI-2210031 ↩

  39. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3ff1c60604f4cb24d8bdce7cfd7d21fb62cde1b8 ↩

  40. https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3182867 ↩

  41. https://www.mdpi.com/2813-2432/2/4/20/pdf?version=1696645437 ↩

  42. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.02452 ↩

  43. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/12/3/126/pdf?version=1563954539 ↩

  44. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2408.11961.pdf ↩

  45. https://journals.library.columbia.edu/index.php/CBLR/article/download/11901/6019 ↩

  46. https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2023/95/e3sconf_emmft2023_05026.pdf ↩

  47. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.16216.pdf ↩

  48. https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/ijdlg-2024-0007/pdf ↩

  49. https://longbridge.com/en/news/273797598 ↩

  50. https://blog.mexc.com/news/crypto-hacks-2026-2-1b-stolen-complete-protection-guide/ ↩

  51. https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/news/1023/20260128-11.html ↩

  52. https://www.mexc.co/news/610733 ↩

  53. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/munich-stock-exchange-announces-dates-222522624.html ↩

  54. https://www.hkex.com.hk/News/Market-Communications/2026/260130news?sc_lang=en ↩

  55. https://www.binance.com/en/square/post/01-29-2026-u-s-sec-and-cftc-to-sign-agreement-on-cryptocurrency-regulation-35748060323505 ↩

  56. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2026-01-29/pdf/2026-01740.pdf ↩

  57. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-theft-hit-nearly-400-180626234.html ↩

  58. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2209.09958.pdf ↩

  59. http://arxiv.org/pdf/2207.04004.pdf ↩

  60. https://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/ddns/2024/8066742.pdf ↩

  61. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2401.00507.pdf ↩

  62. https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.15260v2 ↩

  63. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.08145.pdf ↩

  64. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2411.06327.pdf ↩

  65. https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/9/412/pdf?version=1694778073 ↩

  66. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-industry-bets-sec-2026-173000079.html ↩

  67. https://blog.amberdata.io/crypto-market-analysis-jan-2026-btc-support-at-86k-etf-outflows?hs_amp=true ↩

  68. https://www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/genius-act-step-toward-clarity-catalyst-global-confusion/ ↩

  69. https://weareblox.com/en-eu/arbitrum-prediction ↩

  70. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF8CkzT9Z8A ↩

  71. https://www.deribit.com/options/ETH/ETH-26JAN26/ETH-26JAN26-2900-P ↩

  72. https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/f1fca-arbitrum-arb-price-prediction-2030 ↩

  73. https://www.klgates.com/Crypto-in-2026-The-Democratization-of-Digital-Assets-1-29-2026 ↩

  74. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tradesanta_crypto-market-brief-january-23-2026-activity-7420504152847450112-vcl0 ↩

  75. https://www.osl.com/zh-Hant/bits/article/ethereum-l2-efficiency-showdown-arbitrum-optimism-zk ↩

  76. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/text ↩

  77. https://www.ssrn.com/abstract=3914299 ↩

  78. https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10479-022-05074-8 ↩

  79. https://unisbank.ac.id/ojs/index.php/fe9/article/view/8952 ↩

  80. https://www.penerbitgoodwood.com/index.php/Jakman/article/view/373 ↩

  81. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c191ed32e20ed29cc0954d2e269243d3c9838465 ↩

  82. https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/5147fb9c63027db9fe2c1728b989f6eae1e51549 ↩

  83. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1544612321001306 ↩

  84. https://www.mdpi.com/2504-3110/7/2/203/pdf?version=1677137361 ↩

  85. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.18895.pdf ↩

  86. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/23322039.2023.2300925?needAccess=true ↩

  87. https://robinhood.com/us/en/prediction-markets/crypto/events/ethereum-price-on-feb-3-2026-at-5pm-est-feb-02-2026/ ↩

  88. https://marketcapof.com/ethereum/bitcoin/ ↩

  89. https://beincrypto.com/us-crypto-etfs-first-day-of-trading-2026/ ↩

  90. https://coinalyze.net ↩

  91. https://www.markets.com/analysis/ethereum-eth-price-holds-above-3-000-how-much-will-eth-be-worth-2026 ↩

  92. https://www.facebook.com/CoinMarketCap/posts/january-2026-etf-flows-tell-a-contrarian-story-big-inflows-bigger-exitsjanuary-2/1308115011345889/ ↩

  93. https://crypto.news/crypto-prices-today-february-3-btc-bnb-ada-avax-2026/ ↩

  94. https://www.statista.com/statistics/807195/ethereum-market-capitalization-quarterly/ ↩

  95. https://www.mexc.co/en-PH/news/503385 ↩

  96. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-markets-today-largest-tokens-114541805.html ↩

  97. https://www.statista.com/statistics/806453/price-of-ethereum/ ↩

  98. https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333011/ishares-bitcoin-trust-etf ↩