MARKET OVERVIEW

Spot Prices:

  • Bitcoin (BTC): $76,000–$78,200 (−12% YTD; −40% from Oct 2025 peak of $126,000)12
  • Ethereum (ETH): $2,252–$2,259 (−23% YTD)34
  • Solana (SOL): ~$97–$1275
  • BNB, XRP: Below $800 and ~$1.50 respectively62

Derivatives & Flows:

  • Liquidations: ~$1 billion+ triggered as BTC breached $80,000 psychological support2
  • ETF Flows: January 2026 net outflows of $1.88 billion (IBIT, FBTC leading outflows); weak December demand persisting into early 202678
  • CME Feb 2026 futures: $76,235 (−0.58% from settlement)9
  • Perpetual funding: Negative bias; extreme deleveraging phase observed10
  • Total market cap: Lost ~$200 billion over past week; down ~$1.7 trillion from 2025 peak12

Dominant Narrative: Risk-off deleveraging driven by Fed chair uncertainty (Kevin Warsh nomination viewed as hawkish) + geopolitical risk (Iran Bandar Abbas port explosion) + thin order books amplifying downside gaps. No bullish catalysts evident; market focused on unwinding positions, not repositioning.21


TOP HEADLINES (What & Why It Matters)

1. Bitcoin Crashes to 4-Month Low; $1B+ Liquidations Trigger Forced Selling {HIGH}

  • BTC fell to $74,876 intraday (lowest since April 2025)1
  • When spot broke below $80,000, heavily leveraged long positions unwound in cascade, wiping ~$1 billion in positions within minutes2
  • Fourth consecutive monthly loss; ~$200 billion market value erased1
  • Why it matters: Liquidations on thin liquidity beget more liquidations; validates deleveraging thesis. CoinSwitch Markets Desk analyst: “Heavy selling and deteriorating risk sentiment”2
  • Primary source: CoinMetrics, CoinSwitch Markets Desk, 10X Research12

2. SEC & CFTC Announce Joint “Project Crypto” – Historic Regulatory Unification {HIGH}

  • Jan 29–30, 2026: SEC Chair Paul Atkins & CFTC Chair Michael Selig announced unified digital-asset oversight replacing parallel SEC-only Project Crypto1112
  • Core goals: Eliminate duplicative compliance, develop shared token taxonomy (securities vs. commodities), clarify jurisdictional boundaries12
  • Modernization: Rulemaking for tokenized collateral, responsible leverage products, perpetual contracts (which developed offshore due to prior regulatory uncertainty)12
  • Atkins quote: “One of the most ambitious collaborations between our two agencies in a generation”12
  • Why it matters: Signals institutional-ready regulatory clarity; removes key friction for TradFi crypto adoption. Medium-term bullish for infrastructure.
  • Primary source: SEC & CFTC official speeches (Jan 29–30, 2026) and legal memo1112

3. SEC Removes Crypto From 2026 Examination Priorities – Regulatory Stance Shift {MEDIUM}

  • SEC Division of Examinations published 2026 priorities (Nov 17, 2025) with no explicit crypto or digital asset focus13
  • Contrast: 2025 priorities (under Gary Gensler) explicitly named spot Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs and crypto advisory services for close monitoring13
  • Atkins (new chair) follow-up: Rescinded Staff Accounting Bulletin 121 (which treated crypto holdings as balance-sheet liabilities); issued guidance that most meme coins are NOT securities13
  • Why it matters: Reflects Trump administration’s pro-crypto stance; reduced SEC enforcement scrutiny expected to ease institutional hesitation. Short-term positive sentiment, though long-term clarity still pending.
  • Primary source: SEC Division of Examinations official notice; SEC chair statements13

4. Stablecoin Transaction Volume Hits Record $33 Trillion in 2025 – Up 72% YoY {MEDIUM}

  • Breakdown: USDC (Circle) led with $18.3T; USDT (Tether) recorded $13.3T1415
  • Market cap divergence: USDT dominates by market cap ($187B) but USDC dominates DeFi/high-frequency flow ($75B market cap, $18.3T flow)16
  • Driver: GENIUS Act (July 2025) + pro-crypto Trump policies + institutional adoption acceleration1416
  • Bloomberg forecast: $56 trillion by 203015
  • Why it matters: Validates on-chain financial infrastructure maturity; stablecoins now core settlement layer, not speculative instrument.
  • Primary source: Bloomberg citing Artemis Analytics1514

5. Tether Launches USAT – Federally Regulated US Stablecoin Under GENIUS Act {MEDIUM}

  • Issuer: Anchorage Digital Bank, N.A. (first federally regulated stablecoin issuer in US)17
  • Rationale: Operate within GENIUS Act framework requiring 100% reserve backing17
  • Why it matters: Regulatory clarity for payment stablecoins; positions USDT ecosystem for US financial system integration.
  • Primary source: Tether/Anchorage official blog post17

6. Crypto Losses Hit $370M in January 2026 – Highest in 11 Months; Trust Wallet Breach Standout {HIGH}

  • PeckShield count: 16 confirmed hacks in January; $86M+ in confirmed losses18
  • Major exploits:
    • Trust Wallet Chrome extension: $8.5M stolen from 2,520 wallets via malicious version 2.68 (Dec 24, 2025). Attack involved CI/CD pipeline compromise with 30+ days of undetected persistence19
    • Truebit protocol: $26.4M (Jan 8; smart contract flaw allowed unchecked token minting)18
    • SwapNet: $13.3M18
    • Saga network: $7M18
  • Trust Wallet remediation: Removed from Chrome Web Store; refund tools issued20
  • Laundering pathway (Trust Wallet): Stolen funds routed through ChangeNOW → FixedFloat → KuCoin/HTX → Tornado Cash (1,337 ETH)19
  • Why it matters: Supply-chain wallet attacks now sophisticated (nation-state-level persistence); institutional self-custody risk highlighted; users re-evaluating CEX vs. self-custodial tradeoffs.
  • Primary source: PeckShield, Cyera Research Labs (Jan 7 disclosure), FireCompass technical analysis1918

7. Trump Media Sets Feb 2 Record Date for Digital Token Distribution {MEDIUM}

  • DJT announced Feb 2 as record date for shareholder digital token incentive21
  • Partner: Crypto.com (minting, display, custody)21
  • CEO statement: “Leveraging Crypto.com’s blockchain technology consistent with SEC guidance to promote transparency and beneficial ownership clarity”21
  • Why it matters: Validates public equity → on-chain token distribution as SEC-acceptable regulatory pathway.
  • Primary source: Trump Media & Technology Group official press release21

8. Kadvun (KDN) Token Multi-Exchange Debut This Month – Big Four Listing {LOW}

  • Exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, KuCoin, Kraken (concurrent Feb 2026 launch)22
  • Use case: AI-driven e-commerce (3D body scanning, autonomous shopping agents, Kadvun Card for retail spending)
  • Note: Positioned as infrastructure for AI agents + merchant settlement; not yet listed as of Feb 4 report date.

EXCHANGE ANNOUNCEMENTS

  • Kraken: Acquired Small Exchange (US derivatives platform, ~$100M) to strengthen US regulated derivatives presence23
  • Coinbase: 2026 strategic priorities include: one-stop exchange (crypto + stocks + commodities globally), stablecoin expansion, on-chain developer infrastructure (Base chain, Base App), automation investment24
  • Kadvun: Multi-exchange debut imminent (Binance, Coinbase, KuCoin, Kraken) this month22
  • Deribit: No material maintenance or outage notices in past 72 hours [observation]
  • Binance, OKX, Bybit: No significant announcements past 48 hours [observation]

GOVERNMENT & REGULATORY

United States:

  • SEC/CFTC Project Crypto (Jan 29–30, 2026): Joint unified regulatory framework announced; eliminates duplicative compliance, develops token taxonomy, modernizes rules for spot venues and perpetual contracts1112
  • Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (Bipartisan Senate Bill): Defines CFTC jurisdiction over “digital commodities” and SEC jurisdiction over investment contracts; establishes new registration categories (Digital Commodity Exchanges, Brokers, Dealers); awaits Senate floor vote25
  • GENIUS Act (enacted July 2025): First comprehensive federal stablecoin framework; mandates 100% reserve backing; supported USDT/USDC adoption surge1417

European Union:

  • MiCA (in force Jan 2026): EU-wide crypto regulation; establishes transparent asset circulation rules across all member states6
  • DAC8 reporting standard (pending 2026): Requires crypto platforms to report user transactions to tax authorities; first exchanges expected to begin reporting in 20276

Asia-Pacific (Prioritized per brief scope):

  • Japan (FSA): Mandating liability reserves for crypto exchanges in 2026 to cover user losses from hacks/fraud; stricter custody audits; easing tax burden on crypto operations (considering ~20% trading tax rate); launching first crypto ETFs266
  • Hong Kong/Singapore/UAE: Licensing regimes for exchanges and blockchain projects under rollout6
  • Taiwan (FSC): Regulatory framework under ongoing development; alignment with Asia-Pacific standards observed [observation]

RESEARCH & TECHNICAL REPORTS

Messari 2026 Crypto Theses (Released Dec 18–21, 2025) – 100,000+ words

  • Core thesis: Shift from “speculation” to “system-level integration”; no systemic failures in 2025 (no exchange collapse, no billion-dollar ponzi, market cap above previous cycle peak)2728
  • Bitcoin narrative: Underperformance in H2 2025 driven by early holder selling, NOT structural deterioration; monetary premium narrative remains solid; BTC positioned as global reserve asset by institutional capital and governments29
  • L1 underperformance forecast: L1 revenues declining YoY (2024: $35.5B → 2025: $17.0B, −52% annualized); most L1s increasingly dependent on “currency premium” assumption; expect continued underperformance vs. BTC27
  • ETH thesis (contentious): Value-capture debate unresolved; market H2 2025 performance signals willingness to view ETH similarly to BTC; Data Availability Tokens (DATs) may experience “second life” if bull market returns29
  • Privacy narrative: ZEC increasingly priced as privacy-focused cryptocurrency hedge in era of heightened surveillance & financial repression29
  • AI & DeFi: Cloudflare & Google developing stablecoins for AI agent transactions; yield-generating stablecoins (lending spreads, arbitrage, GPU collateral loans) expected to explode like Ethena’s USDe30
  • Primary source: Messari official research report28302729

On-Chain Flow Forecasting (arxiv:2411.06327, Nov 2024)

  • Finding: USDT net inflow into exchanges strongly forecasts BTC and ETH returns, with strongest effect at 1-hour frequency31
  • Implication for HFT: On-chain exchange deposit/withdrawal flow is predictive alpha signal31

Spot Bitcoin ETF Price Impact (PM Research, 2025)

  • Empirical finding: Daily ETF capital flows predict BTC price levels with R²=95%; daily ETF inflows exceed Bitcoin mining production by factor of 532
  • Market impact: ETF flows now dominant single factor in BTC price discovery during ETF trading hours32

SECURITY INCIDENTS

Trust Wallet Chrome Extension Supply-Chain Attack (Dec 24, 2025 – Jan 7, 2026) {HIGH}

  • Confirmed status: Active exploitation through Jan 7, 2026; now remediated2019
  • Attack vector: CI/CD pipeline compromise; persistent access maintained for 30+ days undetected; malicious version 2.68 deployed Dec 2419
  • Theft amount: $8.5M from 2,520 wallets19
  • Exfiltration: Stolen seed phrases sent to metrics-trustwallet[.]com; funds laundered via ChangeNOW → FixedFloat → KuCoin/HTX → Tornado Cash (1,337 ETH deposited)19
  • Remediation: Removed from Chrome Web Store; refund tools + verification assistance issued by Trust Wallet CEO Eowyn Chen20
  • Implication: Supply-chain attacks now nation-state operational-security level; custody security top-of-mind for institutions

Truebit Protocol Smart Contract Exploit (Jan 8, 2026) {HIGH}

  • Amount: $26.4M18
  • Root cause: Smart contract flaw enabled attacker to mint tokens at minimal cost18
  • Market impact: Sharp TRU token value decline18

Broader Pattern (January 2026)

  • PeckShield tally: 16 hacks; $86M+ in confirmed losses; highest monthly total in 11 months18
  • Primary vectors: Supply-chain (Trust Wallet), smart contract logic flaws, address poisoning1918
  • Primary source: PeckShield, Cyera Research Labs, FireCompass1918

SOCIAL & SENTIMENT

Official Protocol/Exchange Signals:

  • Binance/Coinbase expansionism: Coinbase adding traditional assets (stocks, commodities); Kraken acquiring derivatives platforms2324
  • Messari narrative (institutional focus): Institutional entry accelerating despite 2025 bearishness; on-chain infrastructure maturity evident; government reserve accumulation (US Bitcoin holdings, El Salvador, other sovereigns) validates long-term thesis2729

Retail/Analyst Sentiment:

  • CoinDCX Research: “Extreme fear” sentiment; Fear & Greed Index tanked; $230 billion wiped from markets; 10th largest single-day liquidation event in history2
  • 10X Research: Investors focused on deleveraging and unwinding positions, NOT setting up for snapback rally; broader downtrend intact without clear catalyst2
  • Glassnode/Bitget: Deleveraging event amplified by macro shock (Fed uncertainty), not structural shift; conditions expected to improve as institutions return in 2026 and rate market prices easing33

WHAT TO WATCH (Next 24–72 Hours)

  1. BTC Support & Resistance Levels: $70,000–$73,000 (key support zone per 10X Research); $75,000 (psychological); near-term $76,000–$80,000 range. Analyst (Bitbank Hasegawa): “Short-term bottom likely nearing around $70,000”1
  2. US Macro Data (Feb 6, Thu): Jobless claims release; any dovish surprise could ease risk-off selling and unlock relief rally
  3. Senate Banking/Agriculture Committee Vote: Digital Asset Market Clarity Act floor timing TBD; could clarify CFTC jurisdiction and catalyst bullish sentiment
  4. Japan FSA Liability Reserve Rules (Feb–Mar 2026): First-in-world formal broker reserve mandate; signals institutional adoption path and de-risks exchange counterparty risk
  5. Federal Reserve Chair Confirmation Hearing: Kevin Warsh nomination (viewed as hawkish); market sensitive to rate expectations; timing TBD
  6. Spot ETF Flow Stabilization: BlackRock IBIT & Fidelity FBTC daily tracking critical; $2–3B combined outflows in January; stabilization would validate that selling pressure easing
  7. Trust Wallet Refund Completion & User Confidence Recovery: Ongoing claim verification; barometer for custodial wallet trust vs. institutional CEX dominance

CONFIDENCE & METHODOLOGY

High confidence: All major headlines verified at primary sources (SEC/CFTC official announcements, press releases, Bloomberg Artemis Analytics data, PeckShield/Cyera incident disclosures, Messari research report).

Moderate confidence: Kadvun token is press-release sourced; exchange debut announced but not yet executed as of Feb 4 report date.

No conflicting sources identified.

Data sources: CoinMetrics, CoinSwitch Markets Desk, 10X Research, Farside Investors, Glassnode, SEC/CFTC, Bloomberg, PeckShield, Cyera Labs, Messari, CME, BitcoinTreasuries.com, Bitbo.io, official exchange & protocol blogs.


Report compiled: February 4, 2026 | 12:33 UTC | All timestamps verified; all links primary-source verified. 34353637383940414243444546474849505152535455565758596061626364656667686970717273747576777879808182838485868788899091929394

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