Market Overview (24h)

  • Broad risk-off continues: total crypto market cap is roughly 2.35–2.45T, down about 4–5% over 24h. BTC trades in the 70–72K range (roughly -2–6% 24h), ETH around 2.1–2.3K (-2–4%). Majors on your watchlist underperform: SOL (~100.7, -2.5%), AVAX (~9.3, -6.3%), ADA (~0.28, -6.9%), SUI (~1.07, -6.1%), ARB (~0.123, -9.3%), while BNB (~471, -1.9%), TON (~1.38, flat) and DOGE (~0.10, -1.4%) are relatively more resilient. {Risk: Medium}12345678910111213
  • Sentiment is washed out: multiple gauges put Fear & Greed in “Extreme Fear” (≈11–17), and BTC has broken below prior 75–78K support with several desks now eyeing 70K then 65–68K as next key zones. {Risk: High}141213
  • Derivatives: total futures open interest is about 62.3B (+1.25% 24h) with 24h futures volume ~118B (-38%), and 24h liquidations ~90.8M (-75%), indicating leverage is markedly lower after days of forced selling that saw BTC liquidations alone top 2.5B. BTC perp funding is near flat overall (Binance slightly positive, several venues slightly negative), showing no extreme directional crowding for now. {Risk: Medium}151617
  • Stablecoins: USDT’s market cap is ~185B and USDC’s ~70.7B; on-chain trackers highlight around 1B fresh USDT minted on Tron yesterday and roughly 3B combined USDT/USDC issuance over three days, implying dollar liquidity is still entering despite price weakness. {Risk: Medium}18192021

Top Headlines (What & Why it Matters)

  • Binance FUD, withdrawals framed as a “stress test”: Yi He said on X that a coordinated withdrawal campaign was used as an internal stress test, claiming Binance wallets actually increased in balance and that “there was no bank run,” while pointing to ongoing Proof-of-Reserves and 1:1 asset backing. So far, neither on-chain data nor PoR snapshots show abnormal reserve deterioration, but persistent FUD around the largest exchange remains a latent volatility trigger. {Risk: Medium}22232425
  • Tether scales back notional $20B raise, calls it a “misconception”: Following an FT report that investor pushback forced Tether to cut a planned 15–20B equity raise at a 500B valuation down to as little as 5B, CEO Paolo Ardoino told Reuters the 15–20B figure was only a maximum discussed “in hypothetical scenarios,” not a firm target, and stressed that Tether is highly profitable (≈10B+ in 2025) and not dependent on external capital. The episode underlines both Tether’s earnings power and growing valuation/regulatory scrutiny on the dominant stablecoin issuer. {Risk: Medium}26272829
  • US spot BTC ETF outflows resume: Farside’s flow tracker shows roughly 272M of net outflows across US spot BTC ETFs on Feb 3 and about 545M on Feb 4, reversing the modest inflow streak seen earlier and adding pressure to BTC as it tests new range lows. Persistent outflows would keep spot demand from ETF channels negative into any further downside move. {Risk: Medium}303132
  • Macro/liquidation overhang: Reuters and desk reports highlight that the recent leg lower came with over 2.5B in BTC liquidations over a week and single-day cross-market liquidations >700M, as BTC slid from the mid-80Ks toward low-70Ks while gold spiked back above 5,000. The market is now structurally lighter on leverage but still trading under macro and ETF-flow overhang, leaving downside tails alive if 70K breaks cleanly. {Risk: High}33163412
  • CrossCurve bridge exploit (~3M) reinforces bridge risk theme: Cross-chain liquidity protocol CrossCurve (ex‑EYWA) suffered a smart-contract validation bug that allowed spoofed Axelar cross-chain messages to call an expressExecute function and drain roughly 2.7–3.0M from its PortalV2 bridge contracts across Ethereum, Arbitrum and other L2s; the team paused the bridge, identified 10 suspect addresses, and offered a 10% white-hat bounty with a 72h window. Curve Finance publicly urged users with EYWA-related positions to reassess, adding to the broader narrative that cross-chain bridges remain a primary DeFi attack surface. {Risk: Medium}353637383940

Exchanges

  • Coinbase: added Rainbow (RNBW) and RaveDAO (RAVE) to its official listing roadmap on Feb 4, both Base-native tokens; this is not yet a live exchange listing but signals likely future spot support. {Risk: Low}4142
  • Bybit: announced multiple changes on Feb 4–5, including delisting DENTUSDT, ZEUSUSDT, 10000ELONUSDT and YALAUSDT perpetual contracts, discontinuing MOCA, CTC, ETHW and ONE as collateral/lending assets, and supporting the STABLE v1.2.0 network upgrade; several new perps (e.g., TRIAUSDT) and TradFi products were also listed. Position holders in the delisted perps and collateral need to manage forced unwinds and margin changes. {Risk: Medium}434445
  • OKX: completed Nitro Spread system maintenance on Feb 3 from 10:30–10:50 (UTC+8), i.e., 02:30–02:50 UTC, temporarily suspending Nitro Spread trading features. OKX Wallet will perform a “Stable” network upgrade on Feb 4, suspending all Stable‑network functions during the window, though assets remain user‑custodied on-chain. {Risk: Low}46474849
  • Kraken: status aggregators and the official status feed flag scheduled maintenance for Kraken’s derivatives platform on Feb 5 around 08:00 UTC (03:00–03:10 EST), during which derivatives will be offline then briefly “post‑only,” alongside recent degraded functionality for some Canada-based clients. Short, time‑boxed downtime could momentarily shift flows to competing derivatives venues. {Risk: Low}50515253

Regulation / Law

  • US: a bipartisan crypto market bill advanced out of the Senate Agriculture Committee last week, proposing to give the CFTC clearer authority over spot crypto markets and to define a more structured framework for digital commodities, but faces significant hurdles in the full Senate and House. It is not yet imminent law, but marks incremental momentum toward US federal market-structure legislation. {Risk: Medium}54
  • Hong Kong (SFC): the SFC’s Jan 26 circular requires licensed firms, including virtual asset service providers, to migrate suspicious transaction reporting to the new “STREAMS 2” platform by Feb 2, 2026, with the legacy system shut from Jan 28; STREAMS 2 is now the sole STR channel. This tightens AML/reporting workflows for HK‑licensed crypto platforms but does not directly alter product scope. {Risk: Low}55565758
  • Japan (FSA): the FSA has opened a public consultation (through Feb 27, 2026) on draft reserve rules for yen‑pegged stablecoins, proposing 1:1 backing with high‑grade foreign bonds and effectively treating such tokens as regulated payment instruments. This points toward more bank‑like capital and reserve constraints for yen stables, with implications for issuance models and cross‑border flows into JPY‑linked tokens. {Risk: Medium}59

Research / White Papers

  • Kaiko Data Debrief (Feb 2, 2026): “Fed Reforms Spark Cross-Asset Volatility Spike” argues that recent Fed reforms amplified cross‑asset vol and shows that while stablecoins have reached massive scale, tokenized RWAs (securities, commodities, infra) remain concentrated and illiquid, far from self‑sustaining secondary markets. For RWA and stablecoin trades, the takeaway is that stablecoins are the only RWA segment with true depth so far; tokenized assets still carry liquidity-premium risk. {Risk: Medium}60
  • Glassnode x Coinbase Q1‑2026 “Charting Crypto 1Q26”: the joint report finds BTC dominance stable while many mid‑ and small‑cap alts lag; on‑chain metrics (e.g., NUPL, MVRV, short‑ vs long‑term holder supply) suggest BTC entered a high‑velocity distribution phase in late 2025, with a large share of supply activated within three months and long‑dormant coins decreasing. That supports a regime where BTC is structurally healthier than cyclically inflated alts, but still constrained by overhead supply from late‑cycle buyers. {Risk: Medium}61

Security Incidents

  • CrossCurve bridge exploit: over Jan 31–Feb 1, attackers exploited a missing validation check in CrossCurve’s ReceiverAxelar contract, using spoofed cross-chain messages via the expressExecute function to bypass gateway verification and unlock tokens from the PortalV2 liquidity contract across multiple networks; on‑chain data puts losses near 2.7–3.0M. CrossCurve paused the bridge, advised users to halt interactions and revoke approvals, flagged ten addresses, and offered a 10% bounty with a 72‑hour deadline before legal escalation; Curve Finance publicly warned LPs in EYWA‑linked pools. {Risk: Medium}3637383962634035

What to Watch (next 24–72h)

  • BTC price action around 70K and derivatives positioning: watch if BTC holds the 70–72K band or tests 65–68K, and whether OI and funding re‑lever higher or stay subdued; another spike in liquidations after ETF outflows would signal renewed forced deleveraging. {Risk: High}64121315
  • US spot BTC/ETH ETF flows: next several daily prints from Farside/issuers will show whether the ~800M+ of net BTC ETF outflows over Feb 3–4 was an episodic flush or the start of a longer redemption wave. {Risk: High}3132
  • Binance and Tether narrative follow‑through: monitor on‑chain flows to/from Binance and primary USDT/USDC issuance/redemptions for any sign that FUD around Binance solvency or Tether’s capital plans is translating into sustained withdrawals or stablecoin contraction, rather than just headline noise. {Risk: Medium}2021242926
  • CrossCurve aftermath and bridge audits: if funds are not returned within the bounty window, look for law‑enforcement referrals or further pauses in bridged EYWA‑related pools; also expect other Axelar‑integrated or similar bridges to issue audit/patch notices if they share design patterns. {Risk: Medium}376535
  • Exchange infra windows: Kraken’s brief derivatives maintenance at 08:00 UTC on Feb 5 and ongoing STABLE‑network upgrades at OKX and Bybit may cause short‑lived liquidity shifts or routing anomalies in specific perps or networks; position sizing and routing logic should account for these windows. {Risk: Low}4745465043

High confidence; all items cross‑checked against primary or near‑primary sources within the specified recency windows. 66676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137

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