Market Overview (24h)

  • Spot: BTC is around 97.9k, up roughly 1.8% over 24h; ETH is flat near 3.2k (+0.2%). Among large alts, BNB (~637, -1.5%), SOL (~86–87, -1–2%), ADA (~0.27, -2–3%), AVAX (~9.2, marginally lower), DOGE (~0.095, -1.5%) lag, while ARB is notably weaker around 0.11 (-~8%). Total crypto market cap has rebounded for several days to above 2.3–2.4T after briefly dipping near 2.0T earlier in the week.1234567891011
  • Derivatives: Glassnode’s latest Week On‑chain notes that futures markets are in a forced deleveraging phase with large long liquidations earlier in the drawdown, muted spot demand, and front‑end implied vol bid with 1‑week volatility risk premium turning negative. Coinglass‑based reports show funding around neutral to slightly bearish after last week’s crash, indicating cautious positioning rather than aggressive dip‑buying.12131415
  • Sentiment & stablecoins: Multiple sentiment trackers print “extreme fear” (Binance Altcoin Season Index 24/100, Fear & Greed ≈7), and KuCoin highlights the fear index at its lowest since mid‑2022. Tether has minted 3B USDT in a few days (including 1B on Tron at 20:09 UTC+8 on Feb 5), while Circle added ~500M USDC, pushing weekly stablecoin issuance to ~4.75B and signaling substantial dry powder even as prices remain volatile.141016171819

Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)

  • Binance SAFU converts further into BTC (Risk: Medium): Binance’s Secure Asset Fund for Users bought another 4,225 BTC (~300M USD in stablecoins) on 9 Feb, lifting SAFU’s holdings to 10,455 BTC as part of a 1B USD plan to shift reserves from stablecoins to BTC within 30 days. This is structurally supportive for BTC demand but also makes the insurance fund more correlated with market drawdowns.202122232425
  • Tether RWA and infra push (Risk: Medium): Tether announced a 150M USD strategic equity investment for a ~12% stake in Gold.com, tying its XAU₮ gold‑backed stablecoin into a vertically integrated bullion platform and planning a ≥100M USD gold‑leasing facility plus 20M USD of Gold.com capital into XAU₮. Separately, Tether is investing 100M USD into Anchorage Digital at a 4.2B USD valuation, deepening ties with a federally regulated U.S. digital‑asset bank and USA₮ issuer. Both moves strengthen the RWA/tokenization and regulated‑stablecoin narratives.26272829303132
  • Bithumb mis‑sends 620k BTC, mostly recovered (Risk: Medium): South Korea’s Bithumb accidentally distributed about 620,000 BTC (over 40–60B USD equivalent) to 695 users during a promotion, briefly causing sharp intraday volatility on the venue before 99.7% of funds were clawed back and the exchange pledged to cover remaining losses and pay a bonus. No hacking was involved, but it is a stark operational‑risk reminder for centralized exchanges.33343536

Exchanges

  • Binance (Risk: Medium):
    • Listed Zama (ZAMA) on Spot with a Seed Tag (high‑volatility/early‑stage flag), migrating it from Binance Alpha and requiring periodic risk quizzes for access.373839
    • Binance Futures launched TRIAUSDT USD‑margined perpetuals on 6 Feb 2026 at 20:15 (UTC+8) / 12:15 (UTC), with up to 50x leverage and multi‑asset margin support.40414243
    • On 10 Feb 2026 at 08:00 UTC Binance will remove several low‑liquidity BTC/FDUSD/BNB pairs (e.g., ARDR/BTC, MANA/ETH, XNO/BTC) and terminate associated Spot Trading Bots.44
  • Coinbase (Risk: Medium): Coinbase Advanced and International Exchange will suspend nine perpetual contracts (EDGE‑PERP, PROMPT‑PERP, 1000SATS‑PERP, FLOW‑PERP, SCR‑PERP, IO‑PERP, AR‑PERP, HMSTR‑PERP, DEGEN‑PERP) from around 21:00 Beijing (13:00 UTC) on 20 Feb to focus liquidity on higher‑quality markets. On the infrastructure side, Coinbase Exchange added “ALL_EVM_NETWORKS” support to its address book on 2 Feb, simplifying multi‑chain settlement for EVM assets via a single stored address.4546474849
  • Bybit (Risk: Low): Recent listings include TRIA, ZAMA, and ELON on spot and corresponding perps; TRIAUSDT perps offer up to 25x leverage in the innovation zone. No major outages reported on Deribit or other major derivatives venues in the last week.505152

Regulation / Law

  • UK: FSMA 2000 (Cryptoassets) Regulations 2026 (Risk: Medium): The UK published the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Cryptoassets) Regulations 2026 on 4 Feb, formally defining “qualifying cryptoassets,” “qualifying stablecoin” and “specified investment cryptoassets,” and bringing activities such as issuance of qualifying stablecoins, safeguarding of cryptoassets, operating a crypto trading platform, dealing/arranging deals, and staking into the FSMA regulated‑activity perimeter under FCA authorization. The FCA’s companion note “A new regime for cryptoasset regulation” confirms the main regime is expected to commence on 25 Oct 2027, with an application window from 30 Sep 2026 to 28 Feb 2027.5354
  • Hong Kong SFC (Risk: Medium): The SFC held its third Digital Asset Consultative Panel meeting on 6 Feb with licensed virtual asset trading platforms to discuss enhancing liquidity at licensed venues and expanding allowed product and service types under the ASPIRe roadmap. This points to a gradual broadening of regulated VA offerings (including derivatives and more tokens) while maintaining investor‑protection framing.55565758
  • Other priority jurisdictions: No new material crypto‑specific actions from the SEC, MAS, ESMA/EU, FCA (beyond the UK regime noted above), FSA Japan, or Taiwan FSC in the last seven days were identified in primary‑source channels.

Research / White Papers

  • Glassnode – “Bears in Control” (Week On‑chain, Week 05 2026) (Risk: Medium): Glassnode highlights accelerating realized losses, structurally weak spot volumes, and a forced deleveraging regime in futures after BTC failed to reclaim short‑term holder cost basis, with downside protection dominating options positioning and 1‑week vol risk premium turning negative. The conclusion is that without a clear expansion in spot demand and renewed ETF/treasury inflows, the balance of risk remains skewed lower with unstable rebound profiles.1315
  • Kaiko – Data Debrief “Fed Reforms Spark Cross‑Asset Volatility Spike” (Risk: Low): Kaiko’s 2 Feb note emphasizes that while RWA tokenization has grown from concept to a measurable market, scale is heavily concentrated in stablecoins; tokenized securities/commodities remain fragmented and illiquid, limiting their immediate macro relevance relative to dollar‑backed stablecoins.5960

Security Incidents

  • Step Finance Solana treasury hack (~40M USD) (Risk: High): Around 31 Jan (APAC afternoon), attackers compromised devices used by Step Finance executives, unstaked ~261,854 SOL and drained roughly 30–40M USD from treasury and fee wallets, causing the STEP token to plunge over 80%. The team halted parts of the platform and has recovered about 3.7M USD in Remora assets plus ~1M USD in other holdings, but the root cause (likely private‑key or signing‑workflow compromise) is still under investigation.61626364
  • CrossCurve bridge exploit (~3M USD) (Risk: Medium): On 1 Feb, CrossCurve’s cross‑chain bridge was hacked for about 3M USD after attackers abused the Axelar‑based ReceiverAxelar contract’s expressExecute function with spoofed messages, bypassing gateway verification and unlocking tokens from PortalV2 across multiple chains. The team has paused bridge interactions, is pursuing white‑hat recovery incentives up to 10% of returned funds, and has warned LPs to withdraw from affected pools.65666768
  • Bithumb operational error, not hack (Risk: Medium): As noted above, Bithumb mistakenly distributed ~620k BTC to 695 users and quickly froze affected accounts and trades, later recovering 99.7% of coins and committing its own capital to cover price‑slippage losses plus a 10% goodwill bonus. The incident underscores operational and internal‑control risks rather than protocol‑level failure.34353633

What to Watch (next 24–72h)

  • Binance pair removals and spot/bot reconfiguration on 10 Feb 08:00 UTC, which may affect liquidity for smaller BTC and FDUSD pairs and potentially re‑route flow into remaining majors.44
  • Ongoing SAFU BTC conversion by Binance: roughly 10,455 BTC has been accumulated so far, with up to 1B USD targeted by late February; additional large BTC buys from SAFU could provide discrete demand spikes during dips.69702324
  • Upcoming token unlocks: in the next several days, sizable unlocks include Aptos (APT) (~11.31M tokens on 10 Feb 12:00 UTC), AVAX (~1.67M tokens on 11 Feb 00:00 UTC), and a much larger Starknet (STRK) unlock on 15 Feb; near‑term, APT and AVAX unlocks are the main 72‑hour supply events to monitor.71
  • Coinbase perps suspension effective 20 Feb 13:00 UTC (EDGE‑PERP, FLOW‑PERP, AR‑PERP, etc.), which could shift some directional/perp liquidity toward Binance, Bybit, or on‑chain perps around that date.46474849
  • Stablecoin issuance follow‑through: after 3B USDT and ~0.5B USDC minted in a few days, watch whether net exchange inflows pick up (bullish liquidity) or whether new supply sits in treasuries (neutral), as well as any additional large Tether mints or burns.16171819

High confidence; all items are sourced from primary announcements or well‑established secondary research, with derivatives metrics and sentiment interpreted from aggregated provider data. 72737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119

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