Market Overview (24h)

  • BTC is trading around 67.8k, roughly flat to slightly down on 24h (Coinglass shows about −0.6% on futures), while ETH is about 1,979 USD, up ~2% day-on-day. Global crypto market cap is roughly 2.3–2.4T USD, up around 1% in the last 24h, indicating a modest risk-on bounce after recent drawdowns.123456 Risk: Medium
  • Among watchlist majors, BNB (~618 USD, +5% 24h) and XRP (~1.38–1.40 USD, ~+1% 24h) are relative outperformers. SOL is around 80–82 USD; sources disagree on the exact 24h move (one feed shows −9%, another +1–2%), but all agree it remains down sharply week-on-week, with around −30% over 7 days. TON (~1.36–1.37 USD), AVAX (~8.8–8.9 USD) and ADA (~0.26 USD) show small positive moves and low-single-digit market-cap gains.789101112131415 Risk: Medium
  • BTC futures open interest is about 45.8B USD, indicating still-elevated positioning but no abrupt de-leveraging in the last 24h. Aggregated BTC funding rates across major exchanges hover near +0.01% per 8h, a slightly positive but muted long bias. Coinglass liquidation and ETF dashboards do not show a fresh “billion‑plus” liquidation spike, in contrast to prior sell-offs.6161718 Risk: Medium
  • US spot BTC ETFs saw a material return to net inflows on 10 Feb, with estimates ranging from about 145M USD to 270M USD across products, after several prior outflow sessions. KuCoin’s daily report notes BTC consolidating in a 65.7k–67k range amid “extreme fear” (Fear & Greed index at 5 vs 11 a day earlier), consistent with a de‑risked but still engaged institutional backdrop.192021 Risk: Medium

Top Headlines (What & Why It Matters)

  • US Digital Markets Restructure Act input & Project Crypto harmonization: The SEC’s Crypto Task Force is taking written input on a proposed “Digital Markets Restructure Act of 2026”, which would create a uniform federal framework for issuance, trading, custody, and supervision of digital assets. In parallel, SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig launched a joint “Project Crypto” initiative (29 Jan; summarized 3–11 Feb) to harmonize taxonomy, jurisdictional lines, and market-structure rules, explicitly moving away from “regulation by enforcement” toward coordinated rulemaking. Near term, this increases headline and rulemaking risk but points to clearer medium‑term US market structure.2223242526 Risk: High
  • MiCA moves into operational phase: The Czech National Bank issued the first six authorisations for crypto‑asset service providers under MiCA on 11 Feb 2026, out of 248 applications, confirming that CASP licensing under the EU regime is now live and supervised. This is a concrete step from abstract regulation to actual licensed infrastructure and will gradually reshape which venues can serve EU clients.27 Risk: Medium
  • UK crypto regime consultation deadline (today): The UK FCA’s three consultation papers on the future cryptoasset regime (CP25/40, CP25/41, CP25/42) have a response deadline of 12 Feb 2026, with final rules expected later this year. Proposals cover trading platforms, intermediaries, staking/DeFi, prudential rules, and a crypto market‑abuse regime, setting up a MiCA‑like but UK‑specific framework.282930 Risk: Medium
  • Stablecoin and RWA infrastructure push: Tether Investments has announced strategic investments in Anchorage Digital and interoperability protocol LayerZero Labs (6 and 10 Feb), alongside a new USD₮ Directory mapping real‑world usage and an investment in t‑0, a USD₮‑powered settlement network for licensed FIs. OKX Ventures, Hamilton Lane, Securitize and STBL jointly announced an RWA‑backed stablecoin on OKX’s X Layer, connecting tokenized private credit with programmable settlement. These moves deepen the linkage between stablecoins, tokenized RWAs and regulated infrastructure.31323334 Risk: Medium
  • Aztec Network TGE and multi‑venue listings (today): Aztec Network’s token generation event is scheduled for 12 Feb 2026 at 07:00 UTC (15:00 Beijing), with tokens unlocked via a Uniswap ETH/AZTEC pool seeded with roughly 4,234.6 ETH and 273M AZTEC and an initial on‑chain price around 0.00001551 ETH per AZTEC. Gate will list AZTEC/USDT at 07:00 UTC with 0‑fee Convert from 08:00 UTC, and multiple CEX listings plus DeFi liquidity are likely to concentrate speculative flows into this window.353637 Risk: High

Exchanges

  • Binance
    • Listing: Espresso (ESP) spot pairs (ESP/USDT, ESP/USDC, ESP/TRY) go live on 12 Feb 2026 at 13:00 UTC; withdrawals open 13 Feb 2026 at 13:00 UTC, and ESP will be integrated into Simple Earn, Convert, Margin, VIP Loan and Futures within roughly 24 hours.3839 Risk: Medium (listing‑driven volatility, but isolated to ESP and correlated small‑caps)
    • Stablecoin integration: Binance has completed integration of Ripple USD (RLUSD) on XRP Ledger, opening deposits as of 12 Feb 2026; withdrawals will open once liquidity is sufficient.4039 Risk: Low (incremental liquidity/rails for RLUSD and XRP ecosystem)
    • Derivatives/product changes: Binance Futures will convert AZTECUSDT pre‑market trading to a standard USDⓈ‑margined perpetual contract at 07:00 UTC on 12 Feb 2026. Spot pair removals (including AVAX/BNB, MANA/BTC and others) are scheduled for 13 Feb 2026 at 08:00 UTC.3941 Risk: Medium (localized liquidity shifts and basis moves in AZTEC and affected pairs)
  • OKX
    • Listings & perps: OKX will list CC (Canton) for spot trading and has pre‑market and standard perpetual futures lined up for ESP and AZTEC, with several of these actions dated 10–12 Feb 2026.4243 Risk: Medium (launch‑window volatility around newly tradable mid‑caps)
    • Network operations: OKX temporarily suspended Solana network deposits and withdrawals for wallet maintenance on 10 Feb 2026; this appears operational rather than incident‑driven.42 Risk: Low
  • Coinbase / others
    • Coinbase status page shows no incidents reported for 12 Feb 2026; prior minor “degraded performance” issues have been resolved. No major outage alerts from other top‑tier venues (Kraken, Bybit, Deribit) were evident in the last 24–48h.44 Risk: Low

Regulation / Law

  • US SEC & CFTC alignment (Project Crypto): The 29 Jan joint “Harmonization: U.S. Financial Leadership in the Crypto Era” event, detailed in client alerts on 1–11 Feb, signals that the SEC and CFTC will jointly advance Project Crypto, with a shared taxonomy distinguishing digital commodities, collectibles, tools and securities, and an explicit pivot toward prospective rulemaking over enforcement‑only policy. This increases the probability of clearer US market‑structure statutes (e.g., GENIUS Act follow‑on) and joint guidance over the next 12–24 months.244522 Risk: High
  • EU MiCA implementation: In addition to CNB’s first CASP licenses under MiCA, national regulators continue to push timelines. For example, CySEC has reminded Cyprus‑based CASPs to apply for MiCA authorization by 27 Feb 2026 or submit wind‑down plans, with the transitional period ending 1 July 2026 (note: this notice is ~2 weeks old but remains forward‑looking).4627 Risk: Medium
  • UK cryptoasset regime: The FCA’s CP25/40, CP25/41 and CP25/42 consultations on regulated crypto activities, market‑abuse rules and prudential standards for crypto firms all carry a 12 Feb 2026 response deadline. A separate legal analysis notes the FCA intends to open a “cryptoasset gateway” for authorization in September 2026, ahead of a 25 Oct 2027 regime start.29304728 Risk: Medium

Research / White Papers (last ~14 days)

  • Sentiment “extremity premium”: A 31 Jan 2026 academic paper documents that extreme Crypto Fear & Greed index readings (both fear and greed) are associated with significantly higher bid–ask spreads and an “extremity premium” in BTC, ETH and other large‑cap markets, even after controlling for realized volatility. The work suggests that sentiment intensity—rather than direction alone—drives uncertainty‑linked liquidity withdrawal, reinforcing the caution signaled by today’s extreme‑fear readings.48 Risk: Medium

Security Incidents

  • CrossCurve bridge exploit post‑mortem: Security firm Halborn published a detailed analysis on 9 Feb 2026 of the CrossCurve cross‑chain bridge hack from 1 Feb, confirming that a missing validation check in the bridge’s message‑verification logic allowed attackers to spoof cross‑chain messages and drain roughly 3M USD across multiple supported chains. The protocol has halted operations and is investigating; the incident reinforces that even multi‑validator architectures (Axelar, LayerZero, custom oracles) remain brittle when a single validation step is mis‑implemented.495051 Risk: Medium
  • No new large‑scale (>10M USD) exploits or exchange hacks have been confirmed in the last 24–48 hours by major security monitors (PeckShield, Halborn, BlockSec) or mainstream outlets; recent coverage continues to reference January‑dated incidents (e.g., MakinaFi, Matcha Meta) rather than fresh breaches.5253 Risk: Medium (background smart‑contract risk persists, but no new acute shock identified in the window)

Social & Sentiment

  • Macro and ETF‑driven fear: KuCoin’s 11 Feb daily market report highlights a Fear & Greed index reading of 5 (extreme fear), with BTC chopping between 65.7k and 67k after strong US payrolls data reduced odds of near‑term rate cuts. The report notes broad altcoin underperformance and a lack of clear trend‑reversal signals, consistent with de‑risking rather than outright capitulation.19 Risk: Medium
  • SAFU accumulation (slightly outside 48h but structurally relevant): On 9 Feb 2026, Binance posted that it had purchased 4,225 BTC (~300M USD equivalent) for the SAFU insurance fund, bringing that address to 10,455 BTC and stating the goal of fully converting the fund from stablecoins to BTC within 30 days of the original announcement. While a few days old, this tweet underscores a continued structural bid for BTC from one of the largest exchanges.54 Risk: Medium

What to Watch (next 24–72h)

  • US macro: US CPI and core CPI releases on 13 Feb 2026 are highlighted by KuCoin as key volatility catalysts for BTC and majors, with positioning already cautious after recent ETF‑driven drawdowns.19 Risk: High
  • Aztec launch dynamics (today, 12 Feb):
    • 07:00 UTC – AZTEC/USDT spot launching on Gate (and other CEXs in similar windows), with 0‑fee Convert starting 08:00 UTC.37
    • 07:00 UTC (15:00 Beijing) – AZTEC tokens purchased in prior auctions and pools unlock and become transferable via Uniswap V4, with substantial ETH/AZTEC liquidity already seeded.3635
    • Binance and OKX are converting AZTEC pre‑market perps into standard perpetual futures around the same time.433942 Expect concentrated volatility and cross‑venue spread risk during the first trading sessions. Risk: High
  • Token unlocks: A widely circulated unlock calendar flags an upcoming Arbitrum (ARB) unlock of roughly 92.6–93.65M tokens (~0.9–1.8% of total supply, around 10–14M USD at current prices) around mid‑February; sources differ on whether this executes 13 Feb or 16 Feb at 13:00 UTC. This uncertainty warrants checking official Arbitrum governance/tokenomics channels if positioning around ARB.555657 Risk: Medium
  • UK FCA consultation deadline (12 Feb EOD UK time): Today’s close of the FCA feedback window on its crypto CPs is a soft catalyst; follow‑on speeches, policy statements and market commentary over the next several weeks may shift perceived regulatory risk for UK‑facing venues and tokens with heavy UK retail exposure.583028 Risk: Medium
  • Binance pair delistings and ESP listing follow‑through:
    • 12 Feb 2026 13:00 UTC – ESP spot, Earn, Margin and derivatives go live on Binance.3839
    • 13 Feb 2026 08:00 UTC – Binance removes several spot pairs (including AVAX/BNB, MANA/BTC and others), which can impact cross‑routes and liquidity for those assets on Binance.4139 Risk: Medium

Confidence statement: Medium–high confidence; key items are verified against primary sources (regulators, exchange blogs, issuer sites), but some metrics (SOL 24h performance, ETF inflow magnitude, ARB unlock date) differ between data providers and are noted explicitly as such. 5960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140

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