Daily Crypto Market Brief - ETF Outflows Pressure Bitcoin as DeFi Exploit Hits
Market Overview (24h)
- Total crypto market cap is about 2.28T USD, up roughly 1.1% over the past day, with BTC dominance around 58.7–58.8%.123
- BTC trades near 66.8k USD, down about 0.7% on the day; ETH ~1,960 USD (-0.8%); BNB ~602 USD (-2.0%); SOL ~79.8 USD (-2.3%); XRP ~1.37 USD (-1.4%); DOGE ~0.094 USD (+0.9%); ADA ~0.263 USD (-0.5%).456
- Other watchlist names: TON ~1.40 USD (+3.8%); AVAX ~8.7–8.9 USD (≈flat); SUI ~0.91 USD (+0.3–1.5%); OP ~0.183 USD (+2.3%); ARB ~0.111 USD (+0.8%).789101112
- Futures: aggregated crypto futures OI is near 98.7B USD with 24h futures volume ~138B USD and total liquidations ~183M USD; BTC and ETH funding rates are mildly positive, pointing to a slight long bias but no extreme leverage build-up.13
- Stablecoins: USDT market cap is ~183.8B USD (supply ~183.9B); USDC ~73.1B USD. Recent Kaiko work notes stablecoin dominance above 10% after early‑February liquidations, reinforcing “dry powder on the sidelines” rather than full risk-off.14151617
- Dominant near-term narrative: ETF outflows and earlier liquidation cascades have shifted the market into a mid‑cycle “shakeout” with elevated BTC dominance and selective rotation into majors and a few narratives (privacy, infra, L2s). Risk: Medium.
Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)
- U.S. spot BTC ETFs log back‑to‑back large outflows – Net outflows were about 276M USD on Feb 11 (U.S. Eastern session; ≈close of day, ~21:00–22:00 UTC) and 410M USD on Feb 12, with no ETFs seeing inflows; IBIT (-158M) and FBTC (-104M) led redemptions, total ETF AUM ~82.9B USD (~6.3% of BTC mkt cap). Near‑term, persistent ETF outflows are a clear headwind for BTC price and sentiment. Risk: Medium.1819
- Binance delists six altcoins across spot, margin and derivatives today – Binance is removing all spot pairs for ACA, CHESS, DATA, DF, GHST and NKN at 03:00 UTC on 13 Feb (original announcement 11:00 UTC+8), with deposits halting at 03:00 UTC on 14 Feb and withdrawals ending 03:00 UTC on 13 Apr; associated futures, margin, funding‑rate bots and other products are being wound down in stages. This is material for liquidity in those names and underscores Binance’s ongoing quality/risk pruning. Risk: High for affected tokens, Low for broader market.202122
- Coinbase suffers brief trading disruption on earnings day – Around 10:07 PT on 12 Feb (18:07 UTC), Coinbase reported some users were unable to buy, sell or transfer on Coinbase.com, with services later restored; the firm said the issue was a technical fault unrelated to volume. Short outage but reputationally sensitive given recent volatility and ETF‑driven institutional usage. Risk: Medium (operational), Low (systemic).2324
- Coinbase and Bybit add new privacy/infra listings – Coinbase is launching spot trading for Aztec (AZTEC) and Espresso (ESP) on 12 Feb 2026 (date is U.S. time; trading to open later that day in supported regions once liquidity is sufficient), with AZTEC‑USD and ESP‑USD pairs and an AZTEC‑PERP contract for certain jurisdictions. Bybit lists AZTEC on spot (deposits from 11 Feb 12:00 UTC, trading from 12 Feb 07:00 UTC, withdrawals from 13 Feb 10:00 UTC). These reinforce ongoing interest in privacy and modular / DA infrastructure but are still niche. Risk: Low.252627282930
- zkLend exploited for ~9.5–10M USD on Starknet; part of funds returned – On 12 Feb (exploit window spanning into 13 Feb UTC), lending protocol zkLend was drained for roughly 9.5M USD; attackers bridged funds to Ethereum and laundered via Railgun, but policy constraints forced some funds to be returned to the original address. zkLend has offered the exploiter a 10% white‑hat bounty if 90% (~3,300 ETH equivalent) is returned, and is working with security firms and law enforcement. Risk: High for zkLend users, Low for broader market.31
Exchanges
- Binance – Beyond fully delisting ACA/CHESS/DATA/DF/GHST/NKN today (03:00 UTC), Binance is also closing related USDⓈ‑M futures and associated Funding Rate Arbitrage Bot strategies at 09:00 UTC on 6 Feb and delisting relevant margin pairs at scheduled times; remaining balances may be auto‑converted to stablecoins after 14 Apr at 03:00 UTC. Risk: High for liquidity in delisted names, Low overall.2120
- Coinbase – Adds AZTEC and ESP spot markets plus AZTEC perpetuals (launch 12 Feb UTC, subject to liquidity) but has just experienced a brief retail and Prime disruption on 12 Feb, now resolved. Risk: Medium (operational watch), Low (market‑wide).28292423
- Bybit – AZTEC spot listing (deposits 11 Feb 12:00 UTC, trading 12 Feb 07:00 UTC, withdrawals 13 Feb 10:00 UTC) broadens privacy asset access. Risk: Low.262725
- Kraken – Derivatives platform maintenance completed 13 Feb 08:30–08:44 UTC, with a brief post‑only phase; no major incident reported. Risk: Low.3233
Regulation / Law (last 7 days)
- Japan FSA proposes mandatory cybersecurity self‑assessments for exchanges – New framework announced 10 Feb (Japan time; draft published 11 Feb UTC) introduces compulsory Cybersecurity Self‑Assessments (CSSA) for all registered exchanges, a three‑pillar model (“self‑help, mutual assistance, public help”), JVCEA‑facilitated information‑sharing, and FSA‑run penetration tests starting FY 2026. Tightens operational risk expectations for Japanese venues. Risk: Medium for JPY exchanges, Low market‑wide.34
- Czech National Bank grants first six MiCA CASP licenses – On 11 Feb 2026 (CNB local time; ≈10 Feb–11 Feb UTC), the CNB issued the first six authorisations for crypto‑asset service providers under MiCA, out of 248 applications. Signals concrete progress toward fully regulated CASPs in the EU. Risk: Low (structural positive).35
- EU supervision reform to centralise CASP oversight at ESMA – A European Commission “Market Integration and Supervision Package” proposed on 11 Feb would make ESMA the direct supervisor of significant market infrastructures and all CASPs, shifting authorisation and market‑abuse enforcement away from fragmented national regimes. If adopted, this meaningfully changes compliance dynamics for EU‑facing platforms. Risk: Medium (medium‑term structural).36
- U.S. SEC–CFTC coordination and SEC pivot away from “regulation by enforcement” – A 29 Jan joint SEC–CFTC public meeting (“Project Crypto”) emphasized shared taxonomy, reduced duplicative requirements, and a move toward guidance over ad‑hoc enforcement; under Chair Atkins, SEC crypto enforcement has already slowed, with discussion of an “innovation exemption” for crypto products. Not new rules yet, but directionally supportive for U.S. venues and issuers. Risk: Medium (policy shift), Low near‑term price impact.37383940
Research / White Papers (last 14 days)
- Kaiko Data Debrief – “Bitcoin’s Latest Drop Signals Halfway Point of Bear Market” (9 Feb 2026) – Kaiko argues the early‑February correction, which triggered ~9B USD in liquidations and pushed stablecoin dominance above 10%, likely marks a mid‑cycle shakeout rather than cycle top; they highlight a sharp reset in leveraged longs and a growing role for stablecoins as dry powder. Risk: Medium (sentiment framework).1516
- Kaiko / broader stablecoin research – Recent Kaiko and Coinbase/Glassnode work show 2024 stablecoin transaction volume near or above 30T USD with December alone at ~5T, and Q4 stablecoin supply growth of ~18% toward ~200B, dominated by USDT, with large parts of crypto liquidity effectively dollar‑pegged. Risk: Low (structural context).414243
Security Incidents
- zkLend exploit (~9.5M USD) on Starknet – Attack on 12 Feb (disclosed and updated into 13 Feb UTC) drained ~9.5M USD from zkLend; funds were bridged to Ethereum and sent through Railgun, but Railgun’s policies caused funds to be returned to the origin address; zkLend has offered the attacker a 10% bounty if the remaining ~3,300 ETH is returned and is coordinating with security firms and law enforcement. Highlights renewed smart‑contract and bridge‑adjacent risk in DeFi after a relatively quiet January. Risk: High for zkLend/Starknet DeFi, Low systemic.31
What to Watch (next 24–72h)
- ETF flows: Whether U.S. spot BTC ETFs continue to see large net outflows after the 276M USD (Feb 11) and 410M USD (Feb 12, U.S. Eastern; ≈EOD) redemptions, or stabilise/flip back to inflows.441918
- Binance delisting execution: Price and liquidity impact around and after the 03:00 UTC 13 Feb spot delisting of ACA/CHESS/DATA/DF/GHST/NKN, including any forced unwinds in margin or derivatives exposure on and off Binance.2021
- Exchange reliability: Follow‑through on Coinbase’s engineering/root‑cause report after the 12 Feb 18:07 UTC‑onset disruption and any subsequent incidents across major CEXs during volatility.452423
- Japan consultation responses: Initial industry feedback to the FSA’s CSSA cybersecurity framework (comment window through 11 Mar local time), which may shape the final stringency and timelines for Japanese exchanges.34
- zkLend response: Whether the attacker accepts the white‑hat bounty and returns funds before zkLend’s stated deadline (00:00 UTC, 14 Feb per project statement), and any downstream risk controls/Starknet contract audits that follow.31
High confidence; all items cross‑checked against primary or regulator/exchange–linked sources where available.
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