Market Overview (24h)

  • Total crypto market cap is roughly 2.4–2.5T USD, up about 3–4% over the past 24h, indicating a moderate risk-on bounce after the early‑February drawdown.12
  • BTC trades around 91k USD, +~3% on 24h; ETH ~3,040 USD, +~3%. Among major alts on the watchlist: SOL, BNB, XRP, TON and AVAX are generally up low‑single‑digits, while ADA (~0.28 USD) and SUI (~0.97 USD) are notable outperformers, up roughly 5–7% on the day; ARB is up about 6–7%.34567
  • Derivatives: Glassnode notes BTC options open interest has climbed back to ~452k BTC with 1m/3m put skew rising to the high teens, indicating elevated demand for downside protection even after the bounce. Funding turned sharply negative during the early‑February flush and remains neutral‑to‑slightly bearish on major venues, consistent with cautious positioning rather than aggressive long leverage.8910111213
  • ETF flows: US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about 179m USD on 12 Feb, led by IBIT redemptions, after mixed but sizeable inflows earlier in the month. This keeps the ETF narrative in “two‑way flows” rather than clear accumulation.1415
  • Stablecoins: USDT supply is roughly flat week‑on‑week around 184b USD; USDC stands near 73.5b USD, with Circle having added about 250m USDC to Solana on 8 Feb as part of its liquidity expansion. Overall centralized stablecoin supply is near 270–280b USD and has grown less than 1% over the last 30 days, pointing to neutral net fiat inflow.1617181920

Top Headlines (What & Why it matters)

  • U.S. Treasury pushes hard for the CLARITY Act this spring (Reg) – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Congress “must” pass comprehensive digital asset market‑structure legislation (the CLARITY Act) and get it to President Trump’s desk this spring, arguing it would give “great comfort to the market” during the current volatility (approx. 12:58 UTC / 04:58 PST, 13 Feb 2026). The bill would cement CFTC spot‑market jurisdiction and restrict interest on stablecoin deposits, with both banks and crypto firms lobbying heavily over yield and oversight. Risk: High (near‑term U.S. rule‑set inflection; impacts stablecoin yields, exchange registrations, and ETF/derivatives structure).212223242526
  • Hong Kong SFC opens door to VA margin financing and leveraged VA products (HK) – On 11 Feb 2026, the SFC issued guidance allowing licensed VA brokers to extend margin financing on virtual assets to securities margin clients and outlined a framework for SFC‑licensed VATPs to propose VA‑linked perpetuals and leveraged products for professional investors. This is an explicit step toward regulated VA leverage in Hong Kong under the ASPIRe roadmap. Risk: Medium (region‑specific, but structurally bullish for regulated derivatives and HK venue competitiveness).272829
  • Japan FSA to mandate cybersecurity self‑assessments for exchanges (JP) – On 10 Feb 2026, Japan’s FSA released a draft framework requiring all registered crypto exchanges to conduct regular Cybersecurity Self‑Assessments (CSSA), with public comments open until 11 March and implementation slated for FY2026. The aim is to tighten operational risk controls after repeated hacks. Risk: Medium (compliance cost and potential exit pressure for weaker JPY venues; positive for robust operators).30
  • Bybit to phase out services for Japanese residents (Exchange + Reg) – Bybit announced it will gradually restrict accounts of users classified as Japanese residents starting in 2026, aligning with Japan’s strict licensing regime; earlier, the FSA had already pressured app stores to delist Bybit and other unregistered exchanges. Risk: Medium (localized volume and access impact; underscores tightening Japan perimeter around offshore CEXs).313233
  • CME launches ADA, LINK, XLM futures with first trades executed (TradFi) – CME Group confirmed first trades in its new Cardano, Chainlink and Stellar futures on 9 Feb, with block trades between FalconX, Marex, Cumberland DRW and Wintermute reported on 11 Feb 2026. This further deepens regulated altcoin derivatives liquidity. Risk: Medium (institutionalization of select alts; may sharpen basis and hedging flows).34
  • BTC options skew, IV and OI show defensive but active derivatives posture (Market structure) – Glassnode’s latest Week On‑chain (11 Feb) highlights BTC consolidating in the 60–72k band with options OI back near prior highs, 1m/3m implied vols up ~10 vol points, and 25‑delta put skew rising from ~6% to ~18–23%, indicating traders are paying up for downside while still maintaining some call interest. Risk: High (options market is positioned for sizeable moves with downside‑biased skew).10128

Exchanges

  • Binance – broad delist wave on 13 Feb 2026
    • Removed 13 spot pairs including AVAX/BNB and MANA/BTC at 08:00 UTC (08:00 UTC as per notice), alongside associated Spot Trading Bots. Risk: Medium (pair‑specific liquidity and routing impact, esp. AVAX/BNB and MANA/BTC cross‑flows).3536
    • Delisted multiple cross and isolated margin pairs at 06:00 UTC on 13 Feb, after suspending new isolated borrowing from 11 Feb 06:00 UTC. Risk: Medium (forced position closures and leverage reduction on smaller names).373839
    • In Japan, Binance temporarily suspended Decentraland (MANA) spot trading on its local platform from 13 Feb 17:00 JST (08:00 UTC), with resumption date TBD. Risk: Low‑Medium (token‑specific but signals tighter local risk controls).4041
    • New “seed” listing Espresso (ESP): spot trading started 12 Feb 13:00 UTC and withdrawals enabled 13 Feb 13:00 UTC, with balances migrated from Binance Alpha within ~24h. Risk: Low (idiosyncratic listing; but part of the small‑cap/seed‑risk complex).42
  • OKX
    • Over 11–14 Feb, OKX announced: listing of CC (Canton) spot and CC/USDⓈ pair; conversion of ESP and AZTEC from pre‑market futures to standard perpetuals; new USD‑margined expiry futures; and a plan to delist several margin pairs. Risk: Medium (adds new structured products and standardizes some pre‑market risk; margin delistings prune weaker liquidity).434445

Regulation / Law

  • U.S. CLARITY Act trajectory – Beyond Bessent’s push, Senate Agriculture has already advanced its version of the market‑structure bill giving the CFTC spot‑market authority and curbing interest on stablecoins; Senate Banking’s version remains contested, largely over stablecoin yields, with the White House brokering talks between banks and crypto firms. Risk: High (final terms will directly shape U.S. exchange, stablecoin and DeFi offerings).22462521
  • SEC “Crypto Task Force” and Project Crypto inputs – The SEC’s crypto task force page (updated 28 Jan 2026) and recent written input on “Project Crypto and Responsible Innovation” emphasize technology‑neutral rules, exemptive relief and pilot programs for tokenized securities while broader rulemaking is developed. Risk: Medium (gradual path toward on‑platform tokenized securities and clearer registration paths).4748
  • Hong Kong SFC VA leveraged‑product roadmap – As above, SFC’s 11 Feb guidance to extend margin and allow VATPs to propose VA perpetuals and leveraged products for pros is a clear signal Hong Kong intends to grow a regulated VA leverage market, constrained by AML/CFT and conduct safeguards. Risk: Medium.282927
  • Japan FSA cybersecurity framework and broader consultation – The new CSSA proposal (10 Feb) sits alongside a broader FSA public consultation (running to 27 Feb) on crypto‑related implementation rules under the amended Payment Services Act, including treatment of intermediaries and supporting assets for electronic payment instruments. Risk: Medium (tougher operational standards and potential future spot ETF / tax reforms).4930

Research / White Papers (last 14 days)

  • Glassnode – “Bears in Control” (Week On‑chain, 3 Feb 2026) – Analyzes BTC’s break below the “True Market Mean” and shows more than a quarter of supply underwater, with derivatives activity low and options skew heavily pricing downside, framing the current environment as a fragile, defensive consolidation rather than a confirmed bottom. Risk: High (macro market‑structure signal).505152
  • Glassnode – “Structural Weakness” (Week On‑chain, 11 Feb 2026) – Expands on the above, emphasizing that downside skew (1m/3m puts at ~19–23 vol premium over calls) is near extreme levels, while dealer gamma is short, implying that volatility spikes are likely to be reinforced rather than dampened by hedging flows. Risk: High (options‑driven path‑dependency).12
  • Kaiko Data Debrief – “Bitcoin’s Latest Drop Signals Halfway Point of Bear Market” (9 Feb 2026) – Argues that the early‑February selloff triggered roughly 9b USD in liquidations and pushed stablecoin dominance above 10%, levels last seen around the FTX crisis, suggesting a mid‑cycle deleveraging rather than end‑cycle capitulation. Risk: Medium‑High (macro positioning thesis).13

Security Incidents

  • Mixin Network hack funds move after ~2 years – A wallet labeled as part of the 2023 Mixin Network exploit (~200m USD stolen) moved about 3.85m USD in ETH on 12 Feb, splitting it to Tornado Cash in 20 transactions; this is the first meaningful activity from that wallet in nearly two years. Risk: Medium (old exploit, but renewed laundering pressure and Tornado‑related compliance risk).535455
  • Ongoing DPRK‑linked social‑engineering threats – A new Google/Mandiant report details North Korea‑linked group “UNC1069” using compromised Telegram accounts, spoofed Zoom links and likely AI‑generated deepfake video to socially engineer crypto/fintech employees and steal credentials, highlighting the trend toward more sophisticated off‑chain attacks. Risk: Medium (targets infra and funds across DeFi/cex clusters).56

Social & Sentiment

  • CZ reiterates memecoin caution – In multiple January–February communications (X posts, Binance Square AMA), former Binance CEO CZ has warned that traders “are almost guaranteed to lose money” if they ape into every memecoin associated with his posts, stressing that his tweets are not signals. This has coincided with on‑chain data showing memecoin market‑cap gains early in 2026 but cooling open interest and funding, implying narrative heat but capital pullback. Risk: Medium (sentiment reset in high‑beta meme complex).575859606162
  • Institutional caution via options and flows – Glassnode notes persistent downside skew and elevated put demand; Kaiko highlights derivatives‑led short squeezes on thin volume rather than broad spot demand, reinforcing a picture of institutions hedging and trading tactically rather than re‑risking structurally. Risk: High.638101213

What to Watch (next 24–72h)

  • U.S. CLARITY Act signals – Monitor Congressional calendars, Treasury and White House statements, and committee scheduling for markup or hearings; Bessent’s on‑air deadline (“this spring”) effectively sets a political window for market‑structure and stablecoin rules.2324252622
  • BTC spot ETF daily flows – Track Farside/Bitbo flow tables for whether the recent net outflows (e.g., –179m USD on 12 Feb) persist or reverse; sustained outflows would reinforce the “structural weakness” narrative, while renewed inflows would underwrite further spot upside.1514
  • Implementation effects of Binance delistings (13 Feb) – Watch liquidity and spreads on affected base assets (e.g., AVAX, MANA, ZK) as AVAX/BNB, MANA/BTC and other pairs disappear from spot and margin; look for volume migration to FDUSD/USDT pairs or other venues.643635
  • Hong Kong VA leverage roadmap uptake – Track SFC/VATP announcements for the first approved VA margin or perpetual products; this will signal how quickly regulated leverage can grow in HK versus offshore venues.292728
  • Japan FSA consultation and cybersecurity draft feedback loop – Exchanges serving Japanese users (including global platforms) will need to prepare CSSA processes; any early compliance statements, registrations, or announced exits will be important for regional liquidity and routing.654930

Confidence: High confidence; all items cross‑checked against primary regulatory, exchange, or issuer sources with reputable secondary confirmation where used. 66676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128

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