Market Overview (24h)

  • Total crypto market cap is roughly 2.35T USD, down about 0.8% over the last day, indicating a modest consolidation phase rather than a sharp drawdown.1
  • BTC trades around 70.4k USD, essentially flat over 24h (+0.1%), while ETH is about 2.06k USD (‑0.8%), pointing to mild relative underperformance of ETH vs BTC.23
  • Among watchlist alts: SOL (~89.6, +4.4%) and DOGE (~0.11, +15%) are leadership outliers to the upside; BNB is roughly flat (~630, -0.3%); XRP (~1.51, +7.2%) and ADA (~0.295, +8.2%) are both notably strong; TON (~1.47, +0.7%), AVAX (~9.7, +5.7%), SUI (~1.01, +3.7%), OP (~0.195, +4.2%), and ARB (~0.12, +3.9%) are modestly green.456789101112131415161718
  • Derivatives: aggregated futures open interest across coins is about 98.7B USD with 24h volume ~138.2B USD and liquidations ~182.8M USD, suggesting a normal, non-capitulatory leverage environment. Funding rates for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, SUI, BNB, OP and ADA are mildly positive (roughly +0.01–0.02% per period), indicating a slight long bias but no extreme crowding.19
  • Stablecoins: Circle reports USDC supply increased by about 2.6B between 5–12 Feb, with total supply at 73.1B and fully backed by 73.4B in reserves; this is a meaningful additive dollar-liquidity impulse, including ~250M new USDC minted on Solana on 8 Feb.2021

Top Headlines (What & Why it Matters)

  • China bans offshore RMB stablecoins and tightens outbound crypto/RWA issuance – A joint notice from the People’s Bank of China and other agencies (summarized by TRM Labs on 11 Feb 2026) prohibits offshore RMB stablecoins without approval and bars Chinese entities (and their offshore arms) from issuing crypto or RWA tokens abroad, reaffirming China’s broad crypto ban and targeting new tokenized-RMB and RWA structures. Near-term impact: negative for RMB-linked stablecoins and Chinese-linked tokenization plays; modestly positive for non-RMB stables. [Risk: High]22
  • USDC supply expands by 2.6B in a week – Circle data compiled by Odaily/KuCoin shows USDC’s circulating supply increased from ~70.5B to 73.1B between 5–12 Feb; reserves stand at 73.4B, preserving full backing. Signals renewed on-chain USD demand and provides additional dry powder for DeFi, CEX margin, and ETF-adjacent flows. [Risk: Medium]21
  • Bitcoin derivatives de-leveraging after earlier crash – A VanEck/Yahoo analysis from 9 Feb notes aggregate BTC futures open interest dropped from about 61B USD to 49B USD during last week’s selloff, indicating a ~20% reduction in leveraged exposure; miners have also been net sellers, adding to supply. Even though prices have stabilized, positioning is cleaner, which typically lowers the risk of immediate liquidation cascades. [Risk: Medium]23
  • SEC wins jury verdict in CryptoFX Ponzi case – On 12 Feb (S.D. Texas), a jury found CryptoFX sales leader Ismael Sanchez liable for securities fraud and registration violations in a scheme that took “tens of millions” from ~40,000 investors under the pretense of trading crypto assets and FX. Reinforces US enforcement focus on retail-facing “crypto trading” schemes marketed as passive income. [Risk: Medium]24
  • Physical-mail phishing targets Ledger & Trezor users – BleepingComputer (14 Feb, ~10:15, timezone not specified) reports a new campaign where attackers send physical letters impersonating Trezor and Ledger, urging users to scan QR codes to complete “Authentication/Transaction Checks” by 15 Feb 2026; phishing sites then prompt users for full recovery phrases. Similar summaries from other security outlets confirm the pattern. A sophisticated social-engineering vector that bypasses usual email filters; risk is concentrated but potentially total-loss for affected wallets. [Risk: High]252627

Exchanges

  • OKX – OM (MantraDAO) migration and margin actions
    • OKX will support OM → MANTRA migration at a 1:4 ratio. Borrowing for OM ceased at 08:00 UTC on 13 Feb 2026 (08:00 UTC).28
    • OM/USDT margin trading on OKX will be suspended between 08:00–10:00 UTC on 20 Feb 2026 (times already UTC).28
    • A separate revised migration notice covers ERC‑20 → MANTRA chain migration with transfers/deposits/withdrawals suspended at 08:00 UTC on 3 Jan 2026 and migration between 08:00 UTC 3 Jan–22:00 UTC 5 Jan. Material for OM/MANTRA holders and venues using it as collateral; neutral for broader market. [Risk: Medium]29
  • OKX – Margin pair delistings – OKX will delist several low-liquidity margin trading pairs, including ACE/USDT; borrowing ceases and margin trading is suspended at 11:00 UTC on 13 Feb 2026, with delisting and forced repayments scheduled between 06:00–10:00 UTC on 16 Feb 2026. Impacts margin users of affected small caps; highlights ongoing liquidity scrubbing on second-tier pairs. [Risk: Low]30
  • Bybit – Proof of Reserves & OM support – Bybit’s 30th Proof of Reserves report confirms that major assets are backed at least 1:1 by reserves, with some assets over‑collateralized, and the exchange will also support the OM → MANTRA swap. Positive for perceived counterparty risk and for OM holders using Bybit; no direct price impact. [Risk: Medium]31
  • Coinbase – recent listings – Tracking site ListedOn, citing official Coinbase news, shows new spot listings ESP and AZTEC on Coinbase Exchange on 12 Feb 2026 at 13:06 (likely UTC, original timezone not provided). Adds small-cap opportunity/volatility but immaterial for majors. [Risk: Low]32

Regulation / Law

  • China: offshore RMB stablecoin and RWA clampdown – The PBoC-led joint notice (as summarized by TRM Labs’ 12 Feb weekly) bans unauthorized offshore RMB stablecoins and declares overseas crypto and RWA token issuance by Chinese entities (and their controlled offshore entities) illegal, reiterating the domestic ban on crypto. Significant for any RMB-pegged stablecoin, Chinese-linked RWA platforms, and structured trade using synthetic RMB; likely to push such activity fully offshore and non‑Chinese. [Risk: High]22
  • US SEC – CryptoFX Ponzi verdict – See Top Headlines: enforcement action against a fraudulent “crypto + FX” investment scheme, reinforcing the SEC’s willingness to litigate retail Ponzi cases in federal court. [Risk: Medium]24
  • US CFTC – Cboe Bitcoin continuous futures LMM program amendment – CFTC filing 59676 (official receipt 12 Feb 2026, 00:00 UTC) records Cboe Futures Exchange’s amendments to the lead market maker program for its Bitcoin Continuous Futures contract, under a 10‑day review window. Incremental improvement of liquidity/infrastructure for regulated US BTC futures; structurally supportive but not a short‑term catalyst. [Risk: Low]33

Research / White Papers (last ~14 days, market‑relevant)

  • Crypto policy risk and RMB stablecoins – TRM Labs’ “Weekly Roundup” (11 Feb 2026) provides one of the more detailed English‑language analyses of China’s new notice on RMB stablecoins and offshore crypto/RWA issuance, framing it as a shift from exchange‑level crackdowns to ecosystem‑level prohibitions affecting stablecoins, RWAs, and CBDC‑adjacent flows. Key takeaway: policy risk is rising for cross‑border RMB‑denominated digital instruments, even when issued offshore. [Risk: Medium]22
  • Stablecoin and bear‑market liquidity signal (earlier in window) – A CryptoQuant research note from 4 Feb 2026 (summarized by third‑party coverage) argues that the earlier peak and subsequent contraction in net stablecoin expansion (~15.9B peak in Oct 2025) is consistent with a bear‑market liquidity regime, even as ETF and spot flows remain active. Contextualizes why rallies off recent lows may stall without renewed stablecoin growth—partially offset by the latest USDC expansion. [Risk: Medium]34

Social & Sentiment

  • Hardware wallet makers warn on physical-mail phishing – Multiple security outlets report that both Ledger and Trezor have issued warnings that they never request recovery phrases via physical mail, QR codes, or websites; users are urged to ignore and report such letters. Sentiment: elevated anxiety among self‑custody users; little direct price impact but meaningful for security posture. [Risk: High]2625
  • Bybit transparency push – Bybit’s official announcements channel emphasizes its 30th Proof of Reserves and roadmap communications, reinforcing a “safety and transparency” narrative after industry‑wide scrutiny of offshore venues. Slightly supportive for sentiment toward centralized exchanges in general, especially among derivatives users. [Risk: Medium]31

Security Incidents

  • Physical-mail phishing against Trezor & Ledger users – Adversaries are mailing fake letters that mimic Trezor/Ledger branding and instruct users to scan QR codes for mandatory “Authentication/Transaction Checks” by 15 Feb 2026; phishing sites then solicit 12/20/24‑word recovery phrases, which are exfiltrated to attacker infrastructure. Highly targeted but potentially catastrophic for affected wallets; risk surface extends beyond email and web to physical mail channels. [Risk: High]272526
  • No major new protocol‑level exploits in last 24–48h – Recent large DeFi incidents (Truebit’s ~26M exploit, MakinaFi’s ~4M loss, Sui’s consensus outage) all occurred in early–mid January and are outside the immediate 24–48h window, though they still shape risk premia for older DeFi protocols and new L1s. [Risk: Medium]35363738

What to Watch (next 24–72h)

  • OKX margin delist window (16 Feb 2026) – Final margin‑trading suspension and forced repayment window for several low‑liquidity pairs, including ACE/USDT, runs 06:00–10:00 UTC on 16 Feb 2026 (original schedule in UTC). Potential for localized volatility and forced unwinds in affected names, but limited systemic impact.30
  • OM → MANTRA migration milestones – OM/USDT margin suspension (20 Feb 08:00–10:00 UTC) and later spot/trading halts and snapshots on OKX/OKX TR will continue to roll out over the coming days and weeks. Holders should track migration timetables closely for liquidity gaps and pricing dislocations between OM and MANTRA.3928
  • Bitcoin ETF and derivatives flows post‑flush – After the early‑February selloff that knocked BTC futures OI from ~61B to ~49B USD, watch whether OI rebuilds with positive funding and whether US spot ETF flows remain net negative or stabilize in the coming sessions. A renewed OI build with modestly positive funding would favor trend‑following upside; heavy OI rebuild with rich funding reintroduces liquidation risk.2319
  • China policy follow‑through – Monitor for clarifying guidance or enforcement actions following the PBoC-led ban on offshore RMB stablecoins and RWA issuance; cross‑border desks might preemptively wind down or restructure RMB‑linked products.22
  • Ongoing hardware‑wallet phishing – Given the 15 Feb 2026 “deadline” used in Trezor-themed letters, expect a near‑term spike in phishing attempt activity and potentially in victim reports; desks with operational cold‑storage setups should reinforce internal security comms this week.2527

Confidence: Medium–High confidence; all key items cross-checked against primary or reputable secondary sources, with some quantitative derivatives metrics showing inconsistencies across providers and thus used directionally rather than as precise levels. 404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112113114115116117118119120121122123124125126127128129130131132133134135136137138139140

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